Trophies are true representatives of success, whether earned by scoring the most points or by being voted by league members as the most talented at that position. Trophies also represent a truer team stat, though some players deserve nods for being the true reason behind their teams’ success.
Below is an installment of predictions for year-end trophy accolades throughout the NHL. This article provides a more significant analysis of assessing the Norris, awarded to the league’s top defenceman. This article also reveals potential Selke nominees, given to the league’s best two-way forward and, Jack Adams, presented to the NHL’s top coach.
James Norris Trophy
| Rank | Player | G | A | P | GF | GA | GF% | XGF | XGA | XG% | C% | HDCF% |
| 1 | Quinn Hughes | 9 | 27 | 36 | 38 | 19 | 66.7% | 25.7 | 25.7 | 50.0% | 55.1% | 51.6% |
| 2 | Cale Makar | 7 | 27 | 34 | 32 | 18 | 64.0% | 26.8 | 16.1 | 62.4% | 54.6% | 55.8% |
| 3 | Josh Morrissey | 5 | 19 | 24 | 33 | 20 | 62.3% | 27.8 | 27.0 | 50.8% | 52.9% | 50.1% |
| 4 | Evan Bouchard | 8 | 20 | 28 | 25 | 27 | 48.1% | 27.6 | 18.4 | 60.0% | 60.5% | 59.9% |
| 5 | Noah Dobson | 5 | 22 | 27 | 33 | 20 | 62.3% | 29.3 | 30.8 | 48.8% | 47.3% | 49.05 |
The James Norris Trophy is awarded to the best all-around defenceman. Though recently it has generally been given to the defenceman who nets the most points, such as Cale Makar or Erik Karlsson, only one is a nomination for myself at this point in the season.
However, it is not a returning award winner that is retaining the first-place vote, rather it is Quinn Hughes. Yes, it is the age-old argument that the defenceman who scores the most wins the trophy, but there is a deeper case for Hughes. First, the on-ice production, Vancouver has gotten out to a roaring start, thanks in part to the offence being driven by Hughes’s ability to be on the ice for 38 goals, controlling 67% of even-strength goals. Second, he is driving play in a positive direction, directing more shots toward the opposing net, as evidenced by his C%. However, the quality of shots being given up, XG%, highlights an argument that he is not the best defensive defenceman.
Makar does find himself in the top three, however. For Makar, the argument is further than resting on the laurels of point total, where he ranks second in points. But a deeper case can be built around his even strength play. These include dominating results at actual on-ice production, controlling 64% of goals scored. Additionally, his qualitative metrics further build the case as he holds a strong a +12% above positive differential of shot quality generation and 5% above average shot and high danger chance generation.
The other three contestants rounding out the top five are Josh Morrissey, Evan Bouchard, and Noah Dobson. Morrisey’s case hedges largely on his actual results rather than qualitative metrics; evidenced by being seventh in defenceman scoring and of the top scoring defenceman, sits third in goal mitigation, though this may be due to the play of Connor Hellebuyck.
The next two nominees are breakout stars Evan Bouchard and Noah Dobson. Though it may be a slight Oilers bias, Bouchard sits third in defenceman scoring and carries play in the positive direction, being in the upper echelon at shot quality control, puck possession, and high-danger chance generation. Dobson, who has the weakest case of the nominees due to his expected metrics, is a forward-thinking prediction as he is the reason the New York Islander’s offensive play is driven from the back end, as he sits fifth in defenceman scoring. If Karlsson can win the Norris based on point totals, why can’t Bouchard, who unleashes bombs every night and quarterbacks Edmonton’s power play, or Dobson, New Yorks’s breakout stud.
Frank J. Selke Trophy
| Rank | Player | GF/60 | GA/60 | G Diff | XGF/60 | XGA/60 | XG Diff | Tk | C% | SC% | +/- |
| 1 | Nico Hischier | 3.97 | 3.36 | 0.61 | 4.48 | 3.43 | 1.05 | 9 | 60.0 | 61.3 | 2 |
| 2 | Philip Danault | 4.04 | 3.12 | 0.92 | 3.26 | 2.29 | 0.97 | 2 | 58.9 | 57.0 | 6 |
| 3 | Jesper Fast | 1.63 | 1.99 | -0.36 | 2.98 | 1.66 | 1.32 | 7 | 59.2 | 64.1 | -1 |
| 4 | Nicolas Roy | 2.66 | 1.45 | 1.21 | 3.27 | 1.82 | 1.45 | 15 | 56.7 | 60.7 | 5 |
| 5 | Mark Stone | 2.94 | 3.72 | -0.78 | 2.99 | 3.12 | -0.13 | 31 | 48.3 | 51.9 | -3 |
Admittedly, finding candidates to quantify Selke nominations for the best defensive/two-way forward proved more difficult than initially thought. Though not known as the strongest two-way players, Jesper Fast and Nicolas Roy, should receive consideration for this trophy.
Nico Hischier provides reasoning through his highly dominant two-way play. His underlying metrics indicate that he generates offensively at a minimum +10% margin while being defensively responsible at elite levels, mitigating high-quality chances against. Hischiers’s strong play is further supported by his ability to have both actual and qualitative results perform relatively equally, with excepted and actual goals against elite competition being 3.5 per 60 minutes.
Fast has emerged as a true shutdown forward this season, as he carries the best expected and actual goals against per 60 of most forwards. Additionally, he is one of the few individuals to outpace Hischier in the scoring chance control metric, retaining 64% of the scoring chances when he is present on ice. Philip Danualt is renowned for his defensive play. As indicated by the qualitative shot quality metric roughly matching the actual goal differential. Furthermore, his case can be built around controlling puck possession at a 9% positive margin and a 7% margin in controlling scoring chances.
Mark Stone and Roy are notoriously strong defensive forwards, excelling at takeaways or shot quality mitigation. Unfortunately for Stone, although he is in the top five for takeaways, his argument decreases for the award as he negative expected metrics, though he does play against elite competition. Roy’s case is built around the opportunity generation metric (XG%), as Roy retains the largest XG diff among forwards to play above 200 minutes at even strength.
Jack Adams Award
| Rank | Coach | Team | Rec | W% | C% (Rk) | XG% (Rk) | SC% (Rk) |
| 1 | Bruce Cassidy | Vegas Golden Knights | 19-5-5 | .741 | 49.1 (19) | 52.8 (8) | 52.5 (10) |
| 2 | Todd McLellan | Los Angeles Kings | 16-5-4 | .720 | 56.2 (2) | 57.8 (1) | 55.8 (2) |
| 3 | Jim Montgomery | Boston Bruins | 18-5-3 | .750 | 48.8 (22) | 50.9 (14) | 51.6 (12) |
| 4 | Paul Maurice | Florida Panthers | 17-8-2 | .667 | 56.0 (3) | 53.5 (7) | 55.7 (4) |
| 5 | Peter DeBoer | Dallas Stars | 15-8-3 | .635 | 52.3%(8) | 53.8 (4) | 53.8 (6) |
The Jack Adams Award rewards the league’s best coach. Although it is difficult to avoid being involved in narratives built around specific NHL teams, each coach can explain why they are the most deserving of the Jack Adams.
For example, the inclusion of Bruce Cassidy and Jim Montgomery is due to the impact the two coaches have had on their respective teams. Montgomery, with the loss of players like David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron, and having to run out rookie Matthew Poitras and Charlie Coyle, has retained the Boston Bruins pedigree of play atop the Eastern Conference and Atlantic Division. Cassidy has not suffered the Stanley Cup hangover as most predicted, guiding the Vegas Golden Knights to at or near the top of the league standings even though the qualitative metrics do not support the domination of team play.
Although the two coaches mentioned above provide reasoning for a “top of the world” narrative, they do not give the supporting measurements of Paul Maurice, Peter Deboer, and Todd McLellan. Deboer has continued the trend of turning the Dallas Starrs organization into a team built on puck possession and supporting metrics. His team ranks among the top ten in the following categories: puck possession, and shot quality generation, and has the sixth-best ratio of scoring chances compared to scoring chances against.
Likewise, Maurice deserves a nod for his work in his second year with the Bruins, helping to pace the Florida Panthers to a top-three ranking in the Eastern conference with an 0.667 win percentage. However, where Maurice and Deboer falter compared to my nomination is due to the underlying statistics.
Todd McLellan deserves a standing ovation for the domination, play style, and systems instituted in his Los Angeles Kings tenure. Not only has he remade Cam Talbot back into a number-one goalie at this stage of the season—.898 SVP and 2.93 GAA last season resuscitate .931 SVP and 1.91 GAA this season—but has also posted a league-best .750 win percentage. Under his tutelage, his team either leads the league or ranks second in the following underlying statistical categories: puck possession, shot quality generation, and also retains the second-best ratio of scoring chances for compared to scoring chances against.
Due to the league’s tendency to award Jack Adams to the league’s winningest coach, Cassidy or Montgomery may receive the nod. But the cases provided by the team’s success dominance in controlling the play and mitigating chances against offer compelling arguments for Mclellan most of all in my nomination.
Looking ahead
This is the second installment within this series, covering the first round of Norris, Selke, and Jack Adam’s trophies. The following update will revise awards previously covered in the first installment, including the Hart, Vezina, Art Ross, and Calder. Further updates on the trophy races covered in this article will be reviewed in a future article.
References
