The Edmonton Oilers aren’t back to their expected points pace on the season, but undoubtedly we’ve seen a parting of the storming clouds and the panicked mood that befell Oil Country earlier this season. The coaching change, with Kris Knoblauch now behind the bench, seems to be paying off as the team has seemed to build on its strengths and improved some key weaknesses. The picture of the Oilers season, the thousand narratives spooling together shifting to brighter hues, and the promise of the perennial contender of a team that was expected is coming into focus.
The top six rounding out nicely
It should be no surprise that the Oilers turnaround has been led by their captain. With a rare slow patch, relatively speaking, to the season, followed by an injury that took him out of the lineup and seemed to limit his effectiveness afterward, Connor McDavid has returned to his usual levels of spectacular. Naturally his production is outstanding in its own right, enough so that the Oilers overall team performance has been brought back to life as a whole.
Reunited is the spectacular line of McDavid between Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The trio has had strong results in the past, but has reached dominant levels of play, enough so that it would be ill advised not to make a long term commitment to. While all three players are impactful regardless of their linemates, all are elevated by their partnership. If the Oilers stick with this group they will likely be talked about as the league’s best line at season’s end.
Of course, this leaves Leon Draisaitl available to centre the second line, splitting up the Oilers two superstars. Many have felt and will feel that this is the best recipe for success, especially in the stricter line matching of the NHL playoffs. Of course, the two will still be able to apply their talents and chemistry on the power play, as well as circumstantially throughout the game.
Draisaitl has a good start in linemates in Evander Kane, a temperamental power forward whose game is defined by rare combinations of skill and physicality, though often lacking from the perspective of controlling play. Still, Kane is a good option, and the Oilers best one, in filling such a role. Playing with either McDavid or Draisaitl is important to Kane, so this setup is ideal for maximising his impact.
There might be a long rotation of players that the Oilers give chances to in filling out the final spot in the top six alongside Draisaitl and Kane. This player would need to have enough quality to contribute, while also providing a complementary set of skills to round out the group stylistically. Connor Brown, Warren Foegele, and Mattias Janmark seem to be a stylistic fit, but might lack the quality. Sam Gagner and Derek Ryan have enough skills and smarts to have stints of good play, but likely don’t have enough physicality or staying power to be long term solutions. Dylan Holloway and Raphael Lavoie have yet to prove themselves worthy of such a key role.
In an ideal world it might be Ryan McLeod that is truly the best option, though his services as the team’s foremost checking centre are likely too valuable and too difficult to replace. This might be an area in the lineup that trade deadline speculations revolve around.
Seeing improvement due to coaching changes
It might be tough to find those who thinks of former Coach Jay Woodcroft as anything but a good coach, but the change has led to better play and better results. Even Woodcroft’s biggest supporters cannot deny that it seems the team is thriving under a new voice. It is the harsh reality of professional sports, but concerns around the Oilers decision have waned.
As such, the framing of who Knoblauch is has come around as well, hijacked by the successes of his early tenure. In short, we might think of Knoblauch more as Oilers President Jeff Jackson’s rising star more than we do as McDavid’s junior coach.
Knoblauch is not alone in praise, as Paul Coffey and Mark Stuart have been getting some credit from outside observers. Regardless, we have seen tangible evidence of the Oilers improving in key aspects, even those with which they have long struggled. In general, defence is more repeatable and controllable than offence is, and more reliably leading to success in the long run.
In particular, rush chances against and penalty kill efficiency have been consistent markers of playoff success, and the Oilers have improved significantly in both in a swift manner. Woodcroft, and the team as a whole knew that these were areas that the Oilers needed to be proficient in, though the task is easier said than done. Knoblauch had success with his penalty killing units in the AHL, while Coffey and Stuart were both defencemen during their playoff careers, meaning a collaborative effort is likely involved in the turnaround.
The Oilers blueline, and defensive structure as a whole, is finally playing to the elite level that is required of a Stanley Cup champion. Darnell Nurse is perhaps the most revitalised under the new coach, providing stat heads with an entirely different projection for his long and costly contract. Evan Bouchard might be making a case for an even higher ceiling than one might have imagined in the years since his draft night. Perhaps, Mattias Ekholm coming into his own after starting the season injured has made a big a difference as anything else.
Et tu, Skinner?
With the team playing much more soundly in front of him, the demand on Stuart Skinner has lessened. In step, his play has come around with better support, which should not come as too big a surprise. In truth, the start of this season might have been the first speed wobble for Skinner, who has shot up the ranks with a handful of strong developmental seasons, an almost meteoric rise from deep in the prospect pool.
While some might also point to Skinner’s playoff performance of last season, a fair counter argument would be that the Oilers relied too heavily on the now sophomore down the stretch of the regular season to expect him to maintain his quality. Part of having a healthy tandem is making sure that rest can be optimised, a luxury that neither Jack Campbell or Calvin Pickard are currently providing for the Oilers.
Skinner might well be able to backstop the Oilers to their ultimate goal, but only if the Oilers are able to put him in a position to succeed. This means a stifling team defence in front of him, and rest to prevent burnout. The Oilers seem to be trying to rehabilitate Campbell’s game, as well as their record, in hopes that this balance might be achieved. Regardless of who else starts games for the Oilers, they should have a better chance to do so now with Skinner establishing himself and the team defending at a high level.
What to do with Broberg
It is not all good news in Oil Country, as Philip Broberg’s stalled development has led to reports that the team is exploring trade options. While a fellow high risk top 10 pick defenceman is coming into his own, in Bouchard, the same cannot be said in Broberg’s case.
Many across Oil Country have begun to bemoan his selection in the first place. Draft day concerns about his hockey sense remain to this day, perhaps even the foremost issue of Broberg’s current abilities. However, Broberg still possesses a rare combination of size, skill, and skating ability, as well as strong play in a top AHL role, to be discarded lightly.
To be fair, the Oilers have not exactly given Broberg an ideal opportunity to make his mark in the NHL. Over the years, Broberg has never had a consistent partner, and in fact has been used on his weak side, the only Oilers asked to do so with regularity. Broberg’s best results came when with his most stable pairing, alongside Bouchard in the months leading up to the Ekholm acquisition. The pair was sheltered, but held up despite a lack of a stabilising veteran presence.
Some of this lack of lineup opportunity is due to the depth chart in front of him, with Nurse, Ekholm, and Brett Kulak representing a fairly stout left side. Some of it is due to Broberg’s play leaving something to be desired. At any rate, Broberg still has some time left of being waiver exempt, meaning the Oilers should not rush to a decision. It is frustrating to see a high draft pick stall, but development can take time; Broberg is still young, and there is still a lot for the Oilers to work with. Broberg might not be regarded as a top defensive prospect league wide, but many teams do not possess a prospect with as much upside, and the Oilers are unlikely to have such a prospect during the remainder of the McDavid era, should everything go according to plan.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
