All GMs are sure to have some hits and some misses over their time in charge, and Edmonton Oilers’ GM Ken Holland’s resume has its share of both. As fans hoping for Stanley Cup glory, this can bring additional focus to the missteps, of which there have been many, but it is important to weigh the positives equally, giving credit just the same.
To be fair some of Holland’s better deals are already lauded, such as the Zach Hyman deal. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ extension is still early in its life, but seems to be generally liked. Other good deals might be measured in shades of grey, such as Stuart Skinner’s deal, clouded in the uncertainty of potential. Perhaps most difficult of all to admit is that the Cody Ceci signing has been a clear positive so far.
Cody Ceci has done well in living up to his UFA contract, on the third year of his four-year, $3.25M deal, having played top pair minutes for the entirety of his Oilers tenure. The Oilers have seen the most stable success in decades during this time, all with Ceci playing at the top of the lineup. Of course, Ceci is not a Norris candidate or even an All-Star, and is undoubtedly playing higher in the lineup than one would dream of, but having contributed so much at under $3.5M one has to acknowledge that the Oilers have gotten a lot of value so far.
Ceci’s playing history
In some ways, Ceci has not gotten the league-wide credit he deserves for the strong start to the back half of his career, since joining the Oilers. Ceci was once a first-round pick of the Ottawa Senators. Playing his junior hockey in Ottawa, Ceci was a dominant two way force in junior. Though it wasn’t long before he made the NHL, and his early seasons showed some promise of this upside, Ceci plateaued, failing to truly live up to the expectations on him in Ottawa behind Erik Karlsson on the right side. Ceci was often on the wrong side of public analytics, making him something of a punching bag.
Ceci joined the Toronto Maple Leafs, in a trade that sent Connor Brown the other way, and Pittsburgh Penguins for one year each, playing higher in the team’s lineup, in fact on the Leafs top pairing, something then GM Kyle Dubas stood by after the fact. Despite the fans’ general dismissal of Ceci, he continued to play important roles on playoff teams. Proving that his worst years in Ottawa were behind him. It is at this point that Ceci signs his deal with the Oilers.
| Rank | Line | Minutes | Games | xGoals % | xGoals For Per 60 Minutes | xGoals Against Per 60 Minutes |
| 1 | Ekholm-Bouchard | 270.7 | 20 | 60.60% | 3.41 | 2.22 |
| 2 | Nurse-Ceci | 275.2 | 21 | 56.30% | 3.12 | 2.42 |
| 3 | Kulak-Desharnais | 167.3 | 19 | 54.50% | 2.58 | 2.15 |
| 4 | Kulak-Broberg | 41.5 | 9 | 46.20% | 2.61 | 3.04 |
| 5 | Kulak-Ceci | 31.9 | 17 | 45.70% | 3.01 | 3.57 |
To this day Ceci remains a staple on the Oilers, playing the 4th most minutes on the team, and producing strong results with Darnell Nurse. No player can be everything, and not every player can be a superstar. That being said we can’t fail to appreciate all the contributors that make team success possible. If we cross reference this summer’s free agent class, one hampered by a flat cap, we can get a sense of what free agency dollars are worth.
2023 UFA comparables
| Player | Cap Hit | Years | Age | New Team |
| Dmitry Orlov | $7,750,000 | 2 | 31.9 | CAR |
| Ryan Graves | $4,500,000 | 6 | 28.1 | PIT |
| John Klingberg | $4,150,000 | 1 | 30.8 | TOR |
| Shayne Gostisbehere | $4,125,000 | 1 | 30.2 | DET |
| Radko Gudas | $4,000,000 | 3 | 33 | ANA |
| Mathew Dumba | $3,900,000 | 1 | 29 | ARI |
| Scott Mayfield | $3,500,000 | 7 | 30.7 | NYI |
| Justin Holl | $3,400,000 | 3 | 31.4 | DET |
| Connor Clifton | $3,333,333 | 3 | 28.2 | BUF |
| Carson Soucy | $3,250,000 | 3 | 28.9 | VAN |
| Erik Johnson | $3,250,000 | 1 | 35.2 | BUF |
| Brian Dumoulin | $3,150,000 | 2 | 31.8 | SEA |
| Ian Cole | $3,000,000 | 1 | 34.3 | VAN |
| Luke Schenn | $2,750,000 | 3 | 33.6 | NSH |
| Niko Mikkola | $2,500,000 | 3 | 27.2 | FLA |
| Alex Carrier | $2,500,000 | 1 | 32.3 | NSH |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | $2,250,000 | 1 | 31.9 | FLA |
While all these players are different, it’s fair to say that this group is of fairly similar players to Ceci. Personal preference might have some more highly rated than others, as might circumstances such as handedness, and Ceci a rarer right shot. None of these players top pairing options in a vacuum, so imaging that any of them might play top minutes regardless, have moderate statistical success, and help see the franchise to new heights in the regular season and playoffs, as Ceci has with the Oilers, it would constitute a huge success.
Carson Soucy and Radko Gudas are appreciated by the majority of fans, by eye test and analytics alike, but are not expected to handle top minutes. In fact, most fans would say that their contracts would be wins if these defencemen offered a quality they were paid for, as mid tier UFAs, somewhere in the middle of the lineup.
Ryan Graves is essentially being cast with a chance to replicate Ceci’s success, playing on Kris Letang’s right side, though one might argue that Marcus Pettersson and Erik Karlsson are the Pittsburgh Penguins top pairing, just as Mattis Ekholm and Evan Bouchard have with the Oilers for the past half season. Still, Graves commanded more in terms of both contract length and cap dollars, to a divisive extent as many felt it too aggressive. Time will tell, but at this point Graves can only hope to live up to the standard set by Ceci, albeit a good one in the minds of many.
At a tipping point?
Of course we might be able to think of several deals that would have been better in hindsight, but the Oilers took a risk in signing Ceci and it has paid off wonderfully so far. Still, the demand for improvement is constant, and upgrading on Ceci has become an area for armchair GMs to target.
The merit to this thinking is that there is no guarantee that Ceci will continue to provide such value in the back half of his deal. In a cap world having one defenceman on the third pairing, however solid, making over $2.5M against the cap is a luxury that must be afforded consciously.
Perhaps Ceci might be an ideal option on the third pairing, responsible and capable enough to survive against any opposition, or as a mentor to a younger player with tremendous upside in need of a favourable partner. The results between Kulak and Ceci are concerning, though Ceci profiles as a player who can pair well with a wide variety of players, perhaps even the ideal option for all on the left side of the Oilers defensive depth chart.
The Oilers have a lot more potentially viable NHL options on the left side than they do on the right, meaning that losing Brett Kulak might be easier to backfill. Again, Ceci’s handedness is an asset here. He is slightly more expensive, by $500,000, but has a year less, Ceci’s deal expiring at the end of 2024–25 and Kulak’s at the end of 2026–27.
Of course, some would argue that a deep blueline is always the first priority in building a team behind Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. By this logic, it might only ever make sense to deal Ceci if it’s as a counterweight in a deal bringing back an explicit upgrade, as was the case with Tyson Barrie in last season’s Ekholm deal.
Whatever the Oilers decide to do on future trade fronts, and even if Ceci is moved down the lineup at some point over the course of his current deal, it is without a doubt a deal that has worked out so far. Perhaps a third pairing role would even be more indicative of Ceci’s salary than his top pairing role is.
Photo by Ethan Cairns/Icon Sportswire
