In the six games since our last Oil Check the Edmonton Oilers have gone 3–3–0, unfortunately an improvement on their points pace of the season. This, however, has not improved the mood, the the seasons draws shorter and shorter, and the Oilers issues seem to persist.
Coaching carousel
The biggest news of this six game segment is no doubt the coaching change. Jay Woodcroft won his final appearance as an Oiler, a 4–1 win over the Seattle Kraken, amidst a disappointing season of their own. The five games since, with Kris Knoblauch behind the bench, started with a continuation of what would be a three-game winning streak, including a spirited victory against the Kraken once more, before the Oilers promptly dropped their next three.
We have only started to see any lineup adjustments, yet the Oilers still have the same issues as they did under Woodcroft. Knoblauch seems to be a qualified candidate, but it is difficult to argue that the move has aged well. The Oilers seem to be pandering to Connor McDavid, perhaps to an excessive extent. New President Jeff Jackson seemed to be the greater authority in shaping the Oilers future versus lame duck GM Ken Holland, evidenced in Knoblauch’s introductory press conference.
Even Woodcroft’s success in bringing the Oilers to the heights of the McDavid era could not survive the shockingly poor start to the Oilers season. Clearly the team panicked. The Oilers felt the season slipping away and tried to spark the team to a quick turnaround, an easy fix. This does place Knoblauch in a strange position as well, though the coach has the roster to produce better results, the storm that rages through Oil Country is far more vast than one of coaching.
Ultimately, if Jackson, Knoblauch, and the growing number of McDavid-based hires leads to the star re-signing with the team it might be a win. Winning might be the more sure fire method, but at this point we might acknowledge that no coach could have had much of an impact on the Oilers dismal start.
Goaltending is the biggest issue
The biggest gripe with the coaching might revolve around the Oilers habit of poor defensive coverage this season, displaying lapses of focus. Issues conceding odd man rushes are more widespread in volume, and might be more systematic in nature. There is little doubt the Oilers could be better defensively, but the goaltending is an issue unto itself.
In fact, since the 2005–06 season, only one team has had a worse team save percentage through 18 games than this Oilers team. While the Oilers defence is not perfect, this statistic shows that the goaltending is the bigger issue. Fans across Oil Country are hoping for improvement to the team’s defensive game, but an upgrade in net is clearly dire.
The Jack Campbell signing might turn out to be among the worst moves of GM Holland’s Oilers tenure—signed for too long and for too much money, Campbell seems to have peaked as a tandem backup. There is some hope that he might be able to perform better in the future, perhaps even as a stop gap during injuries, but such an opportunity might not come while in Edmonton.
Stuart Skinner is having his first down year in the past three or four seasons. Skinner exceeded expectations, rocketing his way up the depth chart before taking over the starting job last season. While not a meaningful indictment of the career in front of him, it must be acknowledged that this season has put a damper on the rise. Perhaps in the coming months or seasons we will see Skinner back on track, after all, as Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are showing us, not every season can be a career year. Calvin Pickard is a perfectly fine third option, good enough to start a game or two, but bad enough to pass through waivers with a high degree of certainty.
With the goalie market seemingly blocked, time will tell if the Oilers can afford to acquire a goalie upgrade, in assets or cap space. The Oilers most efficient hope might be that both Campbell and Skinner regain their forms, as both have underwhelmed so far. The duo is capable of providing adequate goaltending behind a strong defensive team, when they are at their best. Unfortunately for the Oilers this reality seems to be a target that is becoming smaller and harder to hit.
Adjusting expectations
The Oilers were middling last season until January, and February the season prior to that. There is time for the team to turn things around, battling for a playoff spot down the stretch, but their climb is growing increasingly steep, the hole they have dug themselves deeper than before. On the bright side, no matter how the Oilers make it to the playoffs they will have a puncher’s chance at running the table, or at least present as an intriguing option to do so.
Of course, the Oilers are far from guaranteed to author such a dramatic turnaround. As such, at least some of the focus will need to turn to the future. Current GM Holland, in the last year of his deal, might have overplayed his hand when he famously said he was not interested in “green bananas.” In the last season of his current deal, and presumably losing some power to President Jackson, it is concerning that Holland is at the helm, if only because he might be unable to see the future as much as the Oilers currently need to be.
Any trading away of this season’s first-round pick must be done so with caution, as in lottery protection. Any trades made will need to make sense for the long term, five to ten years, as opposed to the aggressive living-for-the-present that Holland has been viewing the Oilers through.
As much as it would be devastating for the Oilers to miss the playoffs, perhaps the team can set itself up better for the future with the opportunity to build with a bigger scope. While the Oilers came into the season with legitimate Cup hopes, moves such as the Connor Brown signing, a deal that brings some short term gain at the expense of a fairly hefty cap penalty next season.
Depending on how out of hand the season gets, the Oilers might be looking into other groups of players than we are used to seeing, perhaps even taking a chance on players who are younger and underperforming.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
One Comment