The nature of hockey is one of flow, a state where the different aspects of a team’s game influence and affect each other. For the 2023–24 Edmonton Oilers, struggling despite off-season expectations, this means that the team’s poor performances in several areas are cascading into each other.
While the team has had some issues defensively at even strength, particularly off the rush, that have placed a burden on their goaltenders, the truth is that the goalies have had their share of issues as well. Through the first quarter of the regular season schedule we have seen the team scramble to make changes. Jack Campbell has been demoted to the AHL, and quite frankly does not appear to be making a return in the near future thanks to disappointing performances in the AHL. Coach Jay Woodcroft and defensive assistant Dave Manson have been let go as well.
Despite the desperate efforts for change a few trends have persisted. The Oilers have continued to carry play at even strength for the most part, have continued to have defensive lapses, and have continued to receive less than stellar goaltending. While the relationship between defensive play and goaltending are intertwined, another years long trend has continued as well; a poor performance on the penalty kill.
The Oilers should be a high scoring team, and have proven that they are able to control even strength play. With the team’s offensive talent we should expect the power play to come back to life at some point. Despite the current disarray in net it is certainly possible that the Oilers can achieve the middling goaltending results needed to make them a relevant contender. In short, the biggest x-factor to the Oilers success might well be their results on the penalty kill. Let’s take a closer look at the history of the Oilers penalty kill and where it might go from here.
Penalty kill throughout the years
| Oilers Season | PK% | League avg | vs League avg |
| 2020–21 | 82.47 | 80.22 | 2.25 |
| 2021–22 | 79.37 | 79.39 | -0.02 |
| 2022–23 | 76.98 | 78.69 | -1.71 |
| 2023–24 | 72.73 | 79.6 | -6.87 |
A shadow does loom over the Dave Tippett era, but it must be conceded that the former Oilers coach was able to ice a reasonably strong penalty kill. Though the Oilers struggled to achieve strong even strength metrics under the coach, a reality that would keep them out of playoff relevance, Tippett saw the Oilers to a decent mark a man short.
Midway through the 2021–22 season, Tippett was relieved of his duties and coach Woodcroft took over. Under Woodcroft the Oilers became a more dominant team at even strength, eventually forming into the perennial contender we have come to expect. That being said the Oilers have consistently underperformed the league average in penalty kill efficiency under coach Woodcroft and defensive assistant Dave Manson.
Of course this did not stop the Oilers in years past, as the team rattled off strong regular season and playoff performances under Woodcroft. Ultimately, it was a commitment to defence, or at least the lack of performance that eluded the Oilers under Woodcroft, though the effort was valiant. The Oilers feel to the eventual Stanley Cup champions in each of the past two seasons.
For one reason or another this season started off disastrously, and questions about the team defensive structure in general ran rampant. Was Woodcroft too ambitious in switching the defensive schemes and systems of the team? Were the poor results merely a symptom of poor goaltending? Either way, the Oilers woes a skater short persisted, cementing a theme of Woodcroft’s time behind the bench.
Analyzing the PK
When we analyse the data we can see that this season’s Oilers have limited chances to a degree consistent with seasons past. It will take some time, and perhaps better goaltending, to see if Coach Kris Knoblauch and defensive assistant Paul Coffey are able to help the team improve in this area.
It should be noted that after the Oilers loss to the Florida Panthers, in what was Calvin Pickard’s first start of the season, these issues persisted to the point that captain Connor McDavid referenced the team’s issues a skater short. While it is foolish to expect Pickard to be able to live up the standards the Oilers currently require, at least an equal to Stuart Skinner, for an Oilers team already struggling with confidence this doesn’t help matters.
The Oilers margin for error from a season long perspective draws increasingly slim, and no doubt tempers increasingly short. We can acknowledge that the Oilers are in need of some help in net while also understanding that the penalty kill must also improve.
The Oilers former coaches, Woodcroft as a detail oriented former video coach and Manson as a former defensive defenceman, did possess attributes that would reasonably suggest aptitude in rectifying the penalty kill, meaning the new staff will have their work cut out for them.
Perhaps the flow state of hockey can serve as a rationalisation for the seemingly incongruent belief that Coffey, more offence oriented as a player than Manson, can achieve better results. Perhaps Coffey’s game more closely resembles the overall skill sets of the Oilers current defence.
For his part, Knoblauch saw the AHL Hartford Wolfpack to an 80.6 penalty kill last season, good for eighth in the league, and the Wolfpack currently sit sixth in AHL penalty kill efficiency this season at 86.7. While the NHL is a whole new level, Knoblauch at least has recent experience with a strong penalty kill.
PK personnel for the Oilers
While the Oilers new coaches still have the same roster of players to work with as the old coaches did, the team does have a number of players who are capable penalty killers, at least by reputation. Again, time will tell if the Oilers increase or decrease penalty killing roles for certain players under the new regime.
Perhaps with Mattias Ekholm and Connor Brown still gaining speed from past injuries both veterans will begin to have a greater impact. Of course, the NHL has a league wide trend of star offensive forwards killing penalties more often, but perhaps the team will opt to wean McDavid’s penalty kill minutes as he recovers from an injury of his own. Ideally Ryan McLeod, who excels defensively at even strength, is able to take charge of a leading role.
On the other end of the spectrum, it will be interesting to monitor Vincent Desharnais’ usage. His frame and skill set suggests a strong penalty killer, but perhaps the new coaching regime does not share Woodcroft’s affinity, or history, with the player. Currently there is not another natural option in his place on the right side, as the new regime has not changed the Oilers blueline configuration.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
