What is behind the Edmonton Oilers’ struggles

Cup expectations, Pacific Division titles, playoffs…all seemed like attainable goals at the beginning of the 2023–24 season, with the prospects becoming increasingly bleak with each passing loss. That is not to say that Edmonton is out of the running for any of the aforementioned goals, but the season’s frustration is justified by a 2–8–1 record for being projected favourites by fans and analysts alike. This article delves into what impacts the Edmonton Oilers’ potential season-costing and difficult start.

Factors contributing to Edmonton’s bad luck

What exactly has been Edmonton’s detriment impeding their start-of-season success? One factor that has been associated with hockey luck in the past is what is known as PDO, a metric that is a cumulative measure of shooting and save percentages. But there is also influence from expected for (XGF) and against goals (XGA) and where the shots on the net originate, such as low or high-danger areas.

Expected versus actual goals

Edmonton has been struggling to score at even strength, a story almost as old as time. Depending on which website a person collects statistics from, Edmonton can be classified as in the upper echelon in offensive prowess, obviously helped by retaining two of the best players in the league.

Expected Goals For (XGF) for reference is a qualitative measurement that calculates the probability an unblocked shot results in a goal. Per Natural Stat Trick, Edmonton ranks second in XGF at even strength and fourth by MoneyPuck standards.

Expected Goals Against (XGA) is similar but measures the defensive aspects of mitigating high-risk opportunities against. Per Natural Stat Trick, Edmonton has the sixth lowest XGA and fifth by MoneyPuck rankings.

Both of these contribute to the conclusion that Edmonton retains a very high XG%, a statistic that holds with Edmonton ranking third and fourth in the qualitative metric. However, the difference lies within the expected production, not resulting in actual on-ice results.

Through the first ten games, Edmonton’s on-ice production should have totaled 36 goals, but in reality, the Oilers have only netted 27, resulting in a net differential of nine fewer goals than expected. On the other hand, Edmonton’s strong defensive game should have yielded only 32 goals against, yet the Oilers have given up 41 goals, indicating another negative outcome, of nine goals allowed greater than expected.

In summary, Edmonton should hold a positive goal differential of 4, whereas the team’s on-ice play has totaled a negative goal difference of 14. Regarding the expected goal difference, the number enlarges to 18, second-last in the league, only ahead of the winless San Jose Sharks.

What is driving, bad play or bad luck?

It could be argued there are a large variety of factors impacting Edmonton’s bad play influenced by bad luck. For starters, reviewing the goalie statistics, there is a stark contrast in the opposing team’s netminders versus the Skinner-Campbell duo (Jack Campbell was recently placed on waivers at the time of this writing). In the first 11 games of the season, Edmonton goalies at all strengths have totaled a 0.861 SV%, whereas opposing goalies have a 0.923 SV%. Indicating that the disparity between goaltending play begins with a 0.062 SV% or roughly 6% more shots find the back of the net per 100 shots.

This brings us to the next point about the lack of finishers Edmonton possesses. One aspect contributing to the higher XGF and lower XGA is that the Oilers are consistently playing from behind, implying they are continually trying to generate offense to even the score. This results in them taking a larger volume of shots; Edmonton has a +45 shot differential on the season but only shoots at a 7.8% clip, whereas opponents are finding at the net at a much higher rate of 13.9%. Without the ability to finish, Edmonton’s only bottom-six goal scorer is the recently promoted Sam Gagner, leading to additional pressure placed on the top six.

But what contributes to the lack of finishing? Is it the players’ skill themselves, or is it caused by a difference in the quality of chances? Examining the EDM HDCF and OPP HDCF in the above table, Edmonton is largely out-chancing opposing teams from the most dangerous areas of the ice. The Oilers as a team have recorded 36 more high-danger chances or, on average, a little more than 3 per game on a nightly basis.

Even though they out-chance the opposition nightly, it has not corresponded to on-ice success. Largely because there is a large difference between Edmonton’s ability to stop the puck from that concentrated area versus other goalies. Edmonton’s HDSV% on the season averages 0.608 or 60.8% of shots from the slot, whereas opposing netminders are stopping the puck at a more elevated rate, 89.6%, a difference of almost 30%. Not only is Edmonton underperforming defensively from this extremely dangerous area, but Edmonton has been plagued by an inability to find the back of the net and is being “goalied”.

Combination of bad luck and bad play leading to a bad start

Overall, the underlying metrics do indicate a mixture of bad play and bad luck have led to Edmonton’s slow start both offensively and defensively. It could be argued the metrics are being influenced by Edmonton continually playing from behind, leading to a need for greater overall offensive generation. But the bad play of the goalies to stop shots from the high-danger areas, plus the forward’s lack of finishing, has led to cumulatively low PDO or puck luck, only being above the 1.000 benchmarks in 3 of 11 games.

In summary, all of these statistics indicate Edmonton’s play should positively regress overall. With the recent call-up of Calvin Pickard (assumed), this may also positively influence the Oiler’s ability to keep the puck out of the net and positively improve Edmonton’s poor puck luck and play.

References

https://moneypuck.com/g.htm?id=2023020009

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/games.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=all&loc=B&team=EDM&team2=All&rate=n

Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire