Predicting who will be the Edmonton Oilers’ scapegoat for the 2023–2024 season

If you are an Edmonton Oilers fan, you are well aware of the term “scapegoat.” Every year, the fans, media, heck even sometimes the management (poor Tobias Rieder), choose an Oilers player to pick on and critique mercilessly, and essentially blame any and all issues with the team on.

These players can range from top end players with “flaws” in their game (Tom Poti and Jordan Eberle) to young players failing to meet the high expectations set for them (Nail Yakupov and Jesse Puljujarvi, the most recent target). It might be overpaid veterans who have lost a step (Milan Lucic), or a depth player who draws everyone’s ire even though it isn’t his fault, the coach is playing him higher in the lineup than he should and he’s just trying his best (sorry Liam Reddox).

So who will be the unlucky soul this year that will undoubtedly take a disproportionate share of the blame for any and all Oilers’ shortcomings this year?

0.000000000001% Chance

• Connor McDavid
• Leon Draisaitl
• Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

The best player in the world, the arguably second best player in the world (unless you are an Colorado Avalanche or Toronto Maple Leafs fan), and the fan favourite who inspired a campaign to keep him forever are at the bottom of the list for whipping boy status.

But this is Edmonton and anything can happen when things go south.

Connor McDavid is pretty immune from criticism, both within the fanbase and in the hockey world in general. Putting up 153 points when no one ever thought that would be possible again will buy you that kind of goodwill.

But Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins have each had their own close shaves with whipping boy status in the past. Draisaitl’s defensive game and effort was questioned frequently last year, and up until last year, Nuge had yet to score a playoff goal, causing some consternation about his ability to step up when it counts.

But given last year’s performances by the duo, it seems hard to believe the public opinion will turn negative on them. Especially with some of the candidates we have later down the list.

It could happen but they’d have to crater like a 2022–23 Huberdeau

• Zach Hyman
• Mattias Ekholm

This tier is basically in line with the first one, given they are fan favourites who have done nothing but impress since becoming Oilers. I mean, can you really turn on a guy who stepped in and stabilized the team to an 18–2–1 record? Or the guy who writes children’s books?! You’d have to be a monster.

But, these Zach Hyman and Mattias Ekholm aren’t infallible, even if their leashes are extremely long. It’s hard to envision them crumbling enough to be looked at as problems, but weirder things have happened.

(Sorry Calgary Flames fans, but I’m pretty sure Jonathan Huberdeau is going to come back strong this year and we have to get our shots in while we still can.)

Low expectations = low on the whipping boy totem pole

• Jack Campbell
• Brett Kulak
• Derek Ryan
• Mattias Janmark
• Lane Pederson

This group of players are ones that likely don’t play enough to draw enough attention to be the main scapegoat: the backup goalie, third-pairing D, and three fourth line players.

As Michael Scott once famously said “my, my, how the turntables.” Jack Campbell was well on his way scapegoat status last year, but the big offseason acquisition was saved by Stuart Skinner coming in hot as a Calder Trophy finalist. This year, Skinner now has the burden of a starter’s expectations, and if Campbell comes in and plays even average as a backup, he will likely avoid any scorn, big contract be damned. That’s the benefit of being a backup, no one really cares if you stumble—unless, say, you come in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final and flub playing the puck behind the net resulting in a back breaking goal against. Hypothetically speaking, of course.

You either die a hero, or live long enough to see yourself become the villain

• Evan Bouchard
• Evander Kane
• Stuart Skinner

All three of the above players have huge boom-bust potential. Skinner with the new starting goaltender expectations. Evander Kane who plays on an edge fans love until he crosses it and then would appear to have *checks notes* messed around and found out. Evan Bouchard whose offensive prowess on the best power play in NHL history helps cover up any potential defensive defects.

However, even with these potential ups and downs throughout the season, these three are talented enough to have more good games than bad, helping to avoid falling to scapegoat depths.

(*Schmidt voice*) Youths!

• Dylan Holloway
• Ryan Mcleod
• Philip Broberg
• Raphael Lavoie
• Vincent Desharnais

These players are all younger (well, except Vincent Desharnais) and playing lower in the lineup. But they are all expected to be regular contributors this year, and with that comes expectations. With a team that is in win-now mode, lee-way for rookie mistakes and growing pains is minimal, as Dylan Holloway found out after his first shift last year.

Ryan McLeod recently inked a new contract, which, while not expensive, is still big enough on a cap-strapped team like the Oilers to lead to mutterings if he stumbles in his 3C role.

Philip Broberg has been the subject of much scrutiny already in his young career, being a somewhat controversial pick at eighth overall in 2019, ahead of Trevor Zegras who is now the centrepiece of Anaheim’s future. Oilers GM Ken Holland, who drafted Broberg, is infamous for wanting prospects to over ripen, and that philosophy, along with three bona fide left-sided NHL defencemen ahead of him, has led to limited viewings of Broberg. In comparison to a flashy offensive player like Zegras, the so far fairly steady play of Broberg is always going to look like more disappointing until he becomes a regular himself.

Desharnais came in as a fan favourite, but was quickly exposed in the playoffs, leading to him entering scapegoat status. If he can go back to that simple game with some snarl, he may be able to avoid the same fate.

Don’t blow your chance

• Connor Brown
• Warren Foegele

Connor Brown was the big offseason acquisition this year. Coming off an injury that limited to only four games last year, Holland was able to use an interesting CBA provision to sign Brown to a minimum contract for this season, with a big bonus that will be next year’s worry.

The hope is that Brown can come in and rekindle the chemistry he had with the other Connor in juniors and be a solid linemate that could blow away his previous 20-goal, 40 point status. (See: Zach Hyman)

But, with a $3.25M cap hit next year when he would potentially not even be playing, Brown will expected to play at a $4M level, not league minimum. Add in that he is being given the chance to start with McDavid, Brown can’t afford a misstep, lest he incur the wrath of the Edmonton faithful.

Warren Foegele has been an up and down player for the Oilers in his two seasons here. For a player making $2.75M a year, expectations are a bit higher than twenty something points. But Foegele has steadily improved his consistency and physical game, and has adapted to being a mainstay on the third line. Being a tweener is a notoriously difficult position on the Oilers historically, however, and Foegele will need to continue his effort level to avoid becoming a target.

You could literally win everything possible and people are still going to whine

• Darnell Nurse
• Cody Ceci

It’s fitting that these two have been the top pairing for the past two seasons, and have borne a brunt of the fanbase’s ire in the process.

Darnell Nurse came in as a highly touted prospect who skates like the wind and has a nastiness on the back end the Oilers haven’t seen since the days of Jason Smith. I would have said Chris Pronger, but everyone would jump on me saying Nurse is nowhere near as good as Pronger, even though that’s not what I’m saying and then I would have to add myself to this list.

Nurse then added an offensive aspect to his game, and looked on the path to a #1 defenceman who could not only replace Oscar Klefbom, but perhaps even surpass him. But for the disastrous cap situation the Oilers were in, Nurse likely would have been signed to a long term contract after the 2020 season in the $7M range that everyone would be happy with.

But then something “disastrous” happened—Nurse played out of his mind, offensively at least, in the shortened North Division 2020–21 season. Worse, that offseason apparently was the summer of “You get $9M! And you get $9M! EVERYONE GETS $9M!” for team’s #1 defencemen.

As a result, Nurse became the second highest paid player on the Oilers, and with that the spotlight on him became blinding. Frankly, if Nurse won the Norris, Hart, Art Ross, Richard, Conn Smythe and Stanley Cup, some fans would still grumble about one flubbed play he made in that mid-January game against Columbus that resulted in a shot on goal and therefore he is an overpaid trash AHLer. Note: Sarcasm. Again, don’t want to add myself to this list.

Like Nurse, Cody Ceci came in with the task of having to replace another steady Swede, this time the defensive prowess of Adam Larsson. In his first year, Ceci managed to cover that bet on the way to the Oilers making the Western Conference Finals, easing Oilers’ fans concerns.

However, last year Ceci struggled in an elevated role without the backup/safety of Duncan Keith, and with that became the second biggest whipping boy on the blueline. Apparently he was playing with an injury, and so hopefully him being healthy, along with the presence of Ekholm will help him, and Nurse, regain that form.

However, being partners means that one’s mistake is going to be passed on to the other one as well, and so these two are your 2023–24 season’s most likely scapegoats for the year.

At least until Holland trades for a former Red Wing he drafted way back when. Then that player moves right to the front of the class.

---

Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire