The line between success and failure, between nature and nurture, can be quite thin. Even when prospects succeed, a prospect developing into an NHL player can make a big difference in a given team’s fortunes. With that in mind we turn our attention to Dylan Holloway, the Edmonton Oilers 2020 first-round pick.
Last season, Holloway burst onto the scene during training camp, forcing his way into the opening night roster after a dominant preseason performance.
Despite capturing the imaginations of his coach, GM, and Oil Country as a whole, the hype was short lived, as it didn’t take long for Holloway to start sliding down the lineup. The confidence and assertiveness of his play faded in extremely limited minutes heading into the 2023 calendar year. Anecdotally, Holloway did start to regain his form, particularly in a willingness to take more shots, but the Oilers were no longer convinced, eventually sending Holloway to the AHL.
Although Holloway produced at a high level in the AHL, he did miss some time with injury. It is possible that the time missed thanks to several injuries and setbacks have cost Holloway along his developmental path, though there continues to be some tangible steps forward each season. Based on this trajectory, we should expect for Holloway to assert himself as a positive contributor somewhere in the Oilers top-nine forwards this upcoming season.
Let’s take a look at how Holloway’s performance might still evolve, and how the Oilers might try to bring the best out of him.
Organisational fit
From a larger perspective it will be interesting to monitor how Holloway develops versus other recent Oilers first-round picks, Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto, both of whom were moved on from since the start of last season. Both Puljujarvi and Yamamoto inspired high hopes throughout their tenures with the Oilers. While getting so many games played out of draft picks is anything but a given, fans, Oilers management, and the players themselves likely pictured a more fruitful relationship.
Ultimately, the Oilers moving on from Puljujarvi and Yamamoto was more a function of managing the NHL’s stagnant salary cap than it was a poor level of play. On his rookie deal, and with the salary cap projected to start rising in the years to come, Holloway will at least have the inside track on delivering value against his cap hit.
Still, it would be fair to say that greater levels of production were expected of both Puljujarvi and Yamamoto as Oilers. This might be a dangerous expectation to set for Holloway as well. While the Oilers can offer deployment opportunities alongside some of the world’s elite talent, their record setting power play is fairly set in stone, leaving very little space for any meaningful icetime in this regard.
More plainly, even with lofty projections for Holloway, it would be difficult to imagine a large point total. With Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, Evander Kane, and Evan Bouchard all but assured to be the top-six Oilers scorers, the maximum expectation for any other player on the Oilers roster would be seventh in team scoring.
For Holloway, this means outproducing Darnell Nurse, a solid bet to be next on this list, as well as other potential performances from the likes of Connor Brown and Ryan McLeod. By these parameters it is clear to see how a 15-goal, 40-point season would be a huge success for Holloway in 2023–24. Over time and through injury, there might be a higher offensive upside down the road, but as Holloway looks to carve out his spot in the NHL, expecting more offence than Puljujarvi or Yamamoto were able to deliver would be misguided.
Path to success
What becomes clear here are some of the other ways that Holloway can become a bigger part of the Oilers program than Puljujarvi or Yamamoto were. Holloway does and should look to share some valuable traits as these players. Similar to Puljujarvi, Holloway does have the capacity to be a good forechecker. Meanwhile, Yamamoto was feisty in winning board battles, and able to make deft short passes to teammates off the wall in all three zones.
At his best Holloway would have to combine these elements. Continuing to grow his strength and speed would go a long way towards this, while adjacent skills like puck protection and playmaking might bloom alongside. Offensively, Holloway might have a tool that neither Puljujarvi nor Yamamoto possessed, a shooting talent from distance. Building out some complementary offensive skills would certainly help Holloway’s overall play, though the foundation of this success will be built upon his play without the puck.
Moreover, if we look at some of the players the Oilers have kept heading into next season, it might reveal a path to Holloway’s success. While salary is certainly a consideration here, so too is a defensive reliability. While examples of this might be found throughout the Oilers bottom six, in Mattias Janmark or Derek Ryan, the most informative comparison might be to McLeod.
McLeod has made himself an invaluable part of the Oilers lineup, playing centre for the Oilers foremost checking line and contributions on the penalty kill. While playing at centre may or may not be a part of the Oilers plans for Holloway, contributing to a checking line and playing a role on the penalty kill would go a long way towards earning more sustainable icetime. These were areas that Puljujarvi and Yamamoto never quite filled, which might be considered a huge factor in their being let go.
Line combinations
As much as we should like to see an All-Star level of production from Holloway, a more informed hope for Holloway this season would be as the final piece to the Ryan McLeod-Warren Foegele combination that was so effective last season. By extension, if Holloway can compete with Brown for icetime, the two could be fairly interchangeable within the Oilers middle-six forwards.
As such a potential lineup combination that could work for Holloway is with McLeod and Foegele. Holloway would seem to be a great fit here, as his size, speed, and smarts do profile as an effective checker. Ryan was fantastic in this spot, though Holloway does present a greater upside with more physical skills. Still, it was Ryan’s elite hockey sense and smart support passes that made him so effective in this role, meaning the onus will be on Holloway to show a similar level of effectiveness.
Holloway doesn’t necessarily need to be a great transporter of the puck in transition, and playing with McLeod might be some help here. McLeod’s speed and playmaking skills might be enough to unlock some synergy with Holloway as a shooter, a symbiotic relationship that could add some scoring bite to the line.
A loftier projection would include some time with the Oilers top-six forwards. While Holloway would certainly be beneficiary of elite talent, he might provide some much needed off-puck support for the top of the Oilers lineup as a worker bee, a forechecker, and a responsible presence.
While essentially any line with either McDavid and Draisaitl would be effective, an interesting line might see Holloway with Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins. The duo is likely to appreciate a shooting talent alongside, thanks to Nugent-Hopkins’ playmaking and Hyman’s slot presence. Together, Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman make a great start to a line, a spot that might be a soft landing for any forward that joins them.
11F–7D usage
Finally, a role on the fourth line, or an incomplete line with the Oilers continuing using the 11 forwards–seven defencemen lineup, might be a possibility. Although this might be disappointing, Holloway could still show signs of continued improvement in such a role. A fourth line deployment might be the best chance for the Oilers to use Holloway as a centre, a role the Oilers are looking to fill regardless.
There are all sorts of variables to imaging a fourth line, but most likely the linemate options would be Mattias Janmark, Derek Ryan, and Raphael Lavoie. Perhaps, with Ryan returning to his role on the third line with Foegele and McLeod, a line of Janmark–Holloway–Lavoie might have a little bit of everything to contribute in more sheltered minutes.
Even if Lavoie does not make the team, if the Oilers can afford a free agent near league minimum to bolster their forward group further this could build a strong group for Holloway to centre. Could a Janmark–Holloway–Brown line rival Foegele–McLeod–Ryan? Perhaps instead of Brown the Oilers can sign a free agent like Colin White, Danton Heinen, Tyler Motte, Maxine Comtois, Denis Malgin, or even former Oiler Puljujarvi to give Holloway enough firepower to push for more minutes.
Overall conclusion on Holloway
No matter how the Oilers end up deploying Holloway this season, it will be a telling inflection point for his career. If we look at his draft year of 2020 there is really only one forward selected after Holloway that has made a significantly more impactful mark on the NHL so far—with the New Jersey Devils, Dawson Mercer breaking out for 27 goals and 56 points last season. The expectation of a breakout 2023–24 NHL season is upon many of the forward prospects of this draft, including fellow first-round picks Alexander Holtz, Marco Rossi, Lukas Reichel, Tyson Forester, Conor Zary, Jake Neighbours, and Ridley Greig.
Though some might have expected more from Holloway at this point, it is difficult to characterise him a being developmentally behind his draft class. The group as a whole, Holloway included, should be in line for a telling season in their career paths.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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