After Game 2, the Edmonton Oilers were in a good position heading back home to Edmonton. They had just won the game in overtime and tied the series 1–1. With home ice for the next two games, the Oilers had a good shot of taking a 3–1 series lead over the Vancouver Canucks. How did the Oilers do for the rest of the series? Well, besides one really terrible game which we’ll get into later on, they played relatively well. Did this deserve to go seven games? Let’s dissect this further and find out.
Game 3 breakdown
Everyone remembers what happened in Game 3. Three first period goals on eleven shots by the Canucks basically gave the Oilers the loss. Despite this, Edmonton was by far the superior team. Generating almost 6xG for, this was a game that was entirely dictated by the goaltending on both sides. Arturs Silovs, as he was all series, gave the Canucks the stops they needed, while Stuart Skinner on the other hand, continued his playoff struggles. The Canucks in the final 40 minutes only had SEVEN SHOTS. SEVEN! They scored one goal on those seven shots. A power play goal from Elias Lindholm, another one you could say Skinner needed to have. The Oilers, on the other hand, had thirty six shots. They scored TWICE. Like I said, the outcome was entirely on the goaltending, and Silovs won that battle.
Yes, the Oilers were within one goal of tying up this game, but not a single goal came 5v5. Another issue was the lack of quality. They had trouble finishing which was a problem that occurred for most of the season. They were so many positives that came from this game, but it wasn’t denied that if the Oilers wanted to win three more games, they needed to really to test Silovs more. Why do I say that despite the ginormous shots on goal difference? Despite having thirty six shots in the final 40 minutes, six of them were high danger. Only six. That is unacceptable. Sure, you should throw pucks on net and see what happens if the higher danger chances aren’t available, but don’t just spam shots from the point Los Angeles Kings style. The team is too good offensively to take the low danger plays.
If the Oilers can play as well as they did defensively in Game 4 like they did in Game 3, and started testing Silovs with more high danger shots and chances, as well as taking advantage of his weaknesses such as shots up high and screens, the Oilers can very easily win Game 4. But, was Skinner really trusted enough to return to the net for a crucial Game 4 which would see them going down 3–1 in the series? Well, Head Coach Kris Knoblauch gave us an answer.
Game 4 win
Knoblauch’s answer was Calvin Pickard. Pickard had never started a Stanley Cup playoff game ever in his career, and was tasked with the challenge of winning a pivotal Game 4 for the orange and blue. Pickard did his job. He stopped the pucks he had to save. One thing is that he didn’t see a high danger chance until the third period. It was excellent defending by the Oilers in their own zone. This strong start led Pickard to starting Game 5…which we’ll get to in a second.
It was the first game of the series that saw Dylan Holloway get elevated to Leon Draisaitl and Evander Kane’s line as well. For Games 2 and3, Knoblauch put the dynamic duo together, playing them almost 30 minutes in each game. In Game 4, he split them apart and it worked beautifully. The newly formed 55-29-91 line had a 69.09 xGF% share out there while McDavid’s line with Zach Hyman and RNH hovered closer to 50%.
Just like in Game 3, the Oilers vastly outplayed the Canucks on both 5v5 and the PP. This time, Edmonton finally got a 5v5 goal thanks to RNH. Things got tense in the third period as Vancouver tied it up with about a minute to go. Thankfully, the game did not need overtime as Evan Bouchard fired the game winning goal with ~40 seconds left to win the game. It was a huge win for Edmonton to go back to Vancouver with the series tied, and the momentum seemingly in their favour…but Game 5 was the polar opposite of that in Game 4.
Game 5 tragedies
To say Game 5 was garbage would be an understatement. Without a doubt, that may of been the worst game the Oilers played in the Knoblauch era, and maybe their worst playoff game since Game 2 against the Avalanche in 2022. The Oilers were incredibly lucky they were close in this game to begin with.
Pickard was phenomenal. A GSAx of 1.28 on the road with the Canucks generating 10 HD chances and controlling the play 5v5. He came to show up and gave Edmonton the reliable goaltending they’ve needed for years. Yet, the Oilers don’t show up and get dummied and ended up losing with 30 seconds left in the game.
Again, they’re lucky they were even in it and had a chance to win in the first place, and sometimes you need to win those types of games come playoff time. There were rumors of Ekholm playing sick and maybe that infected the entire team, but that shouldn’t even be an excuse in the regular season.
It’s interesting to note that the worst players for Edmonton were actually their top guys, while the bottom six themselves held their own. It re-ignited the narrative that Edmonton needs their top guys to perform otherwise they’re beatable. The power play was dreadful too. The top unit went 0/5. After being their biggest weapon for years, you can argue it lost them the game. You score on it once and the game goes to OT at the very least. Oiler fans around felt maybe this series was over. Maybe the time for this core is over. With a huge Game 6 on home ice, it was do or die time for the Oilers. Will they come out fast and play hard? Will they go back to Pickard after a strong game?
Game 6
With their season on the line, Edmonton came home to a roaring Rogers Place crowd. Knoblauch, once again, showed he wasn’t afraid to make a controversial change, as not only was Corey Perry taken out for Sam Carrick, but Skinner was inserted back into the line up. You ride and die with the goalie that got you there. The Oilers came out flying. A beautiful rush by Holloway made it 1–0 and in the second, Edmonton took off. Goals by Bouchard and Hyman put the boys up 3–0 at the end of the second, which saw Vancouver play probably their worst period of the postseason at that point. The third period saw Edmonton continue to play stingy defensively and forced a Game 7 with a huge 5–1 win.
Honestly, this is the rare time where I will disagree with what the numbers say. I don’t think the Oilers had that bad of a first period and Vancouver seemed dead in the water in the third. I don’t know why NaturalStatTrick rated the Canucks highly in both instances. MoneyPuck also had the xG at a similar amount for both sides, when the Canucks barely had any HD chances from my eye. Anyways, Skinner did his job saving 14/15 shots. One of which was a huge stop on Quinn Hughes while the Canucks were on a five-on-three PP near the end of the second frame. Speaking about power plays, the Oilers once again went scoreless on theirs, going 0/4. All five goals came 5v5. Not bad for “powerplay merchants.” Next up was the big one. The game that would define the 97-29 era. Game 7.
Winning the series in seven
The Oilers played a beautiful first 50 minutes of this game. They came out with the killer instinct against the Canucks, outshooting them 12–2 after the first 20. Heck, they had more shots on the Canucks four-minute PP than the Canucks themselves had on it. The Oilers would get rewarded for their hard work as Mr. Game 7 Cody Ceci opened the score, while minutes later a Hyman tip from Bouchard would make it 2–0. After RNH made it 3–0 on a power play, the Canucks started to press. The Oilers, once again, did an amazing job of blocking everything in sight and not giving the Canucks much room. When they did give up a scoring chance, Skinner came up clutch and made the save.
Everything went well until the halfway mark of the third. A poor play by Ryan McLeod allowed Conor Garland to get the Canucks life and back within two. Moments later, off the draw Filip Hronek made it a one goal game. Wisely, Knoblauch uses his timeout and calmed things down. Edmonton did not allow a single shot after that and end up winning the game. What a fierce, tense way to close out this wonderful series. All the Oilers played phenomenal and definitely showed they were the better, more mature team.
Onto Dallas
The Dallas Stars are a damn good hockey team. They run four incredible scoring lines, with their bottom six containing Mason Marchment, Evgenii Dadonov and long-time Stars Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin. They have a top-five D on the backend with Miro Heiskanen, one of the best shutdown defenders in Chris Tanev, a solid veteran in Esa Lindell, and a young Thomas Harley. Of course, in goal, is Jake Oettinger. This is going to be a challenge for Edmonton. But, unlike a few years ago against Colorado, I do not think it’ll be one-sided.
The Oilers are better from two years ago. Dallas, although really well-balanced, still doesn’t come close to how dominant that Avalanche team truly was. My gut and mind is telling me Dallas in six, but my heart is choosing the Oilers in six. You just can’t count out Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, and Evan Bouchard.
