There arguably hasn’t been a more divisive topic of discussion in Oil Country than the state of the goaltending tandem, more specifically, Stuart Skinner.
On one hand, people will look at things such as raw save percentage, as well as the overall record of the team to argue that Skinner has had a fine year. On the flipside, many people have looked at the underlying numbers of the team as a whole, as well as comparing them to the rest of the league to point out that goaltending has actually well underperformed this year and how the Oilers defensive play has covered up a below average tandem.
But how does he compare to the rest of the league, and what does he project to get in an upcoming contract extension?
We will look at two of the most recent extensions given out to starters and see how their profile compares to Skinner, as well as what he could potentially get on his next deal.
Mackenzie Blackwood and his five-year, $5.25M contract
Mackenzie Blackwood recently signed a five-year contract at an annual cap hit of $5.25M with the Colorado Avalanche. This was signed less than a month after the team had initially acquired him to replace the struggling Alexander Georgiev.
Blackwood played on the San Jose Sharks the year prior. After falling out of the goalie rotation in New Jersey due to poor play, largely hampered by injury, the New Jersey Devils decided to move on, sending him to the Sharks for a sixth-round pick.
Blackwood would go on to have a respectable season, posting an .899 SV% in 44 games, all on the team that gave up the most expected goals against. Out of all goalies play 40 games, Blackwood ranked 18th out of 34 goalies in GSAX, and 17th in GSAX/60, all of which were higher than Skinner’s (20th and 21st in that regard).
This season, Blackwood has taken his game to a whole new level, starting the year with a .911 SV% in 19 games with the Sharks. This led to the Avalanche trading for him to improve their goaltending. It has paid dividends for the Avalanche as Blackwood would go 4–1–0 in his first five starts, posting a .940 SV%, and leading to his contract.
There is an obvious injury concern with Blackwood, as he’s always missed good portions of the season the last few years, but when he’s healthy, he’s arguably been a top 10 to 15 goalie in the league.
Logan Thompson’s six-year, $5.85M deal
Another goalie who has been in the spotlight recently is Logan Thompson. He very recently signed a six-year deal at an annual cap hit of $5.85M with the Washington Capitals.
Thompson has had a Vezina calibre season so far, posting a .924 SV% in 29 games, all while having the second most GSAX, and the highest GSAX/60 at 0.949. For reference, Connor Hellebuyck has the second highest at 0.686. In a year where everything has gone right for Washington, they would be nowhere near the top of the standings without him.
The one real downside with Thompson is that he’s rarely been a full time starter. In his first full season, he started 37 games for Vegas as their main guy, then got injured, missed all of the playoffs, leading to Adin Hill’s emergence and signed an extension for $4.9M after the playoffs. Vegas then used a tandem style system all year.
Thompson started 46 games that year along with four playoff games in Vegas’s first-round loss. This year, as good as Thompson has been, he is still sharing the net with Charlie Lindgren. However, he has proven that he’s capable of making 35 to 45 starts a year. At his worst, he has been an above average goalie, and while at his best, has been in conversations for the Vezina.
How does this bode for Stuart Skinner
Stuart Skinner does have somewhat of a case to be making close to what both Blackwood and Thompson money.
For one, Skinner has started more regular season games the last three years (144) than both Blackwood (104) and Thompson (112). Skinner also started in 37 playoff games, and considering the volatility of goaltenders, GMs might look at the larger sample size and view Skinner as a “high floor” option.
Blackwood’s injury history and Thompson’s lack of time as a true number one may be seen as risks to some GMs. Plus you factor in the latest news surrounding the cap rising, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Skinner get a similar offer, whether its from the Oilers, or two years from now in free agency.
However, Skinner hasn’t put up the numbers that Blackwood and Thompson have. Skinner ranks fifth last amongst 25 goalies who have started 30 or more games in GSAX/60 and overall GSAX. He has struggled with consistency a lot the past two seasons, which was put on full display in the playoffs. He did okay against the Los Angeles Kings, completely blew up in the Vancouver series which nearly costed them the run to the Final, and was elite against Dallas. While he didn’t cost Edmonton the series against Florida by himself, he didn’t really win them any games on his own either.
Blackwood’s contract is slated to take up 5.5% next year based on the current cap projections, while Thompson’s will take up 6.1%. Skinner’s extension will kick in a year later, with the cap going up an additional $8.5M. Skinner will more than likely be asking for anywhere between 5 and 5.5% of cap space, which based on next years cap projections, would land him a long term deal at anywhere from $4.16M to $5.05M. But if he becomes a free agent, performs at his usual rate the next year, he could realistically get between $5.68M to $6.24M based on the projected $113.5M salary cap.
Should the Oilers extend Skinner?
Skinner has done well, considering how he wasn’t supposed to even be the starter in his first full year. He has stepped up and given the Oilers a ton of starts at a low cap hit, while statistically being average to above average throughout his tenure.
However, considering the state of goaltending right now and just how volatile it is, to players like Evan Bouchard and Connor McDavid needing significant raises in the next two years, it would be smart for the Oilers to let Skinner sign elsewhere and find a short term replacement, whether that be through trade or free agency.
While Skinner can be good, goalies with shaky track records with five-year deals have blown up in some teams’ face. It’ll be interesting to see the direction the Oilers take with Stu.
All stats are courtesy of moneypuck.com
Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire
God this is poor
Please find another vocation