The Edmonton Oilers have started to hit their stride in the past few games. With three wins in their last five games, the Oilers are 7–4–1 since their three-game losing streak to open the season. The big offensive explosion of seven goals in their last game against the Vancouver Canucks was another happy sight, and it does look like things are returning to normal for the Oil.
However, the biggest concern on this team right now is the goaltending, specifically the play of starter Stuart Skinner.
From his stats on NHL.com, we know that Skinner’s numbers are well below what they’re expected to be.
| Record | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4-5-1 | 3.25 | 0.883 | 1 |
Using deeper metrics we can usually see exactly where a goalie is underperforming and what areas he needs to work on.
For the purposes of this analysis, we’ll be looking only at goalies who have played at least eight games. On average, teams have played 15 games each this season, so eight starts will get us over 50% for the goalies considered. We’ll also be looking just at 5v5 statistics, as that is where most of the game is played and special teams are unique game states, and more difficult to predict.
All stats are courtesy of NaturalStatTrick.com.
Let’s take a deeper look.
Skinner’s saves by danger level
Most public models categorize shots as either low, medium, or high danger. This is based on various factors including shot type (slap/snap/wrist), location, angle, and the events leading up to the shot (if it was passed directly for a one-timer, or if it was a rebound, etc.).
Here’s how Skinner stacks up this season among the 32 qualifying goalies.
| 2024-25 | HDSV% | MDSV% | LDSV% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw | .787 | .894 | .958 |
| League Rank | 24 | 20 | 22 |
Unfortunately, Skinner is among the worst goalies at all three danger levels. With 32 total goalies in this sample, Skinner is in the bottom third across the board. However, when compared to last year’s stats, Skinner isn’t performing that much worse.
| 2023-24 | HDSV% | MDSV% | LDSV% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw | .815 | .891 | .976 |
| League Rank | 21 | 19 | 11 |
He wasn’t very good from high or medium danger last year either and stacked up very similarly leaguewide. What really stands out is his efficiency from low-danger areas.
Last season, Skinner was among the best goalies in the league in stopping shots from low-danger areas. He had a .967 LDSV% which ranked 11th in the NHL. However, at his current rate of .958, he’s all the way down to 22nd in the league. While .958 looks like a darn good number in isolation, this is actually quite poor, especially for Skinner. For all goalies in this year’s sample, the average LDSV% is .970. Skinner is well below that.
Letting in shots that are supposed to be easy, or easier, to save can also have a detrimental snowballing effect on your overall team. You don’t want to be trailing games unnecessarily, or allow teams undeserving comebacks.
Skinner’s average goal distance
Another metric tracked on NaturalStatTrick is goal distance. The two stats that are the most interesting are average shot distance, which tracks the shot location of all shots and averages the distance to the goal, and average goal distance, which takes the location of every shot that resulted in a goal and averages the distance to the goal.
| 2024-25 | Avg. Shot Distance | Avg. Goal Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Raw | 35.8 | 23.38 |
| League Rank | 8th closest | 8th furthest |
This season, Skinner has faced a lot of shots from in close. At 34.8 feet, he ranks eighth in terms of average shot distance, which means the Oilers are letting opponents shoot from a lot closer to the goal than other teams. For reference, Igor Shesterkin faces the closest shots on average at 32.32 feet, very close to Skinner’s number, and Kevin Lankinen has faced the furthest shots on average at 42.2 feet.
On the other hand, as we saw above, Skinner is saving the close shots at a fairly predictable rate given his past seasons’ performance. Where he isn’t doing well is allowing goals from far away. Skinner allows goals from the eighth furthest average distance this season, and his mark of 23.38 feet is a lot longer than you’d want.
For reference, the NHL leader in goal distance is the Seattle Kraken’s Joey Daccord with an average goal distance of 11.71 feet. Skinner is at double that distance.
Here are Skinner’s last season’s stats for comparison.
| 2023-24 | Avg. Shot Distance | Avg. Goal Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Raw | 34.86 | 19.95 |
| League Rank | 9th closest | 19th furthest |
Once again, we see that Skinner is allowing goals from spots he probably shouldn’t, and is saving those shots at a significantly lower rate than last season. His average shot distance was relatively similar relative to the rest of the league, but he’s allowing goals from a lot further out and a lot more often.
This is clearly the main source of his poor numbers through the first fifth of the season.
A work in progress
Whether this is primarily a mental or physical struggle is unknown, but at the end of the day, Skinner needs to be more reliable from low danger and needs to stop the easy shots going forward.
We can’t expect Skinner to magically become as good as Shesterkin or the other elite goalies in the NHL, but if he can maintain his production and efficiency from last season, the Oilers should be okay at the very least. Hopefully he can get back to his form.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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