How expected goals reveal the Edmonton Oilers’ goaltending struggles

The Edmonton Oilers are not winning as many games as they should be, and a big reason is that their goaltending is well below average. Stuart Skinner has been shaky as the starter and Calvin Pickard hasn’t exactly elevated his play either.

So far this season, the Oilers’ 9–7–2 record has gotten them a second wild card spot, but this isn’t what anyone expected of the team that was one win away from the Stanley Cup in June. While it isn’t always fair to put the blame entirely on one position—especially with the issues around the Oilers defence—it is still justified to say that the goaltending has simply not been good enough.

Oilers expected goals against

A quick reminder on what expected goals are and what they measure: given all historical data of every shot taken, the likelihood of a shot turning into a goal is calculated based on location, shot type, game situation, etc. An expected goal model assigns the probability of any given shot turning into a goal. So for example, a shot taken from inside the crease on an empty net should be just about 0.99 expected goals, while a defensive zone clearing attempt that reaches the opposing goalie would be a lot closer to 0.00.

Different hockey analytics sites have different models, but there is general consensus on expected goals, and especially when the analysis is comparative, most public models suffice. So for this look at the Oilers, I’ll use MoneyPuck.com.

At the time of writing, Stuart Skinner is dead last in the league in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in all situations with -9.3. That means he’s let in over nine more goals than what would be expected given the types of shots he faces. Skinner has been an outright disaster at saving the easy shots and it’s a big contributor to why he’s last in the GSAx front.

Posting a GSAx of -9.3 would be a bad outcome for an entire season, but this total in so few games played is very worrisome. In all situations, Skinner has an expected goals against of 28.7 yet he’s given up 38 goals. Only Jordan Binnington, Jeremy Swayman, and Connor Ingram have given up more goals this season, but they all have higher expected goals against totals.

Furthermore, Pickard is also clocking in with a negative GSAx of -1.6. Together, the Oilers tandem’s combined GSAx is -10.9, which has them at the bottom of the league.

Edmonton can’t outscore their goaltending woes

Unfortunately for the Oilers, the players in front of the goalies aren’t exactly racking up goals at a torrid pace this season either. Last year, Edmonton ranked fourth in the league by scoring 294 goals over 82 games, which equates to 3.59 goals per game. On top of that, they were also tenth in the league in goals against with 237 goals ceded.

So far this year, they’ve scored 50 goals over 18 games, which is a much lower 2.78 goals per game. Scoring 50 goals so far currently has them ranked 22nd in the league and coincidentally, their goals against of 57 is also 22nd in the league.

The Oilers have a painfully unideal situation of the team not scoring as much as expected while giving up more. This is the perfect recipe to lose games and is evidenced by their losses. In every single loss so far this season, they’ve given up at least three goals.

Goaltending is losing them games. It’s that simple.

Solving the goalie situation

Going into the season, the Oilers were hoping that their netminding would be relatively stable with Skinner and Pickard returning as the team’s duo. However as their starter, Skinner is performing under his career average, and as the NHL’s best scorers become more skilled at goalscoring, the goalies that underperform will be feasted upon. Unluckily for Edmonton, Skinner is the current textbook example of this exact outcome happening.

The Oilers don’t have a solution in net at the moment, and it’s unknown what direction Skinner will take his game. Either he will rebound and find some way to return to at least a more respectable form, or the Oilers will continue to struggle to pick up standings points this year and may even put themselves at risk of missing the playoffs.

For the sake of the Oilers, let’s hope it’s the latter.