With five games left in the season, the Edmonton Oilers are one point up on the top Wild Card spot and six points up on fourth place in the Pacific Division; barring a huge collapse, they appear to be well on their way to their fifth straight playoff appearance (sixth if you count the qualifying round in the 2020 playoff bubble).
The last four of those years had the Oilers starting the playoffs with a matchup against the Los Angeles Kings, thanks in large part to the NHL’s division-focused playoff format that receives absolutely no criticism whatsoever.
This year, it looks like the Oilers will finally have a different first-round opponent. But which of these would be the best matchup for the Oilers? We asked Oil Country, and here is what you all thought.
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Fans want the Utah Mammoth
The top choice for almost half of you was the Utah Mammoth, who currently hold the top wild card spot. What that means is that the Oilers would have to win the Pacific Division for this to occur. This is certainly possible thanks to the Oilers recent five-game win streak (one of which was over the Anaheim Ducks), combined with a recent four-game losing streak by the Ducks.
Even after last night’s Oilers loss to the Vegas Golden Knights, thanks to the Ducks’ loss to the Calgary Flames, the Oilers are still in first place. Because the Oilers and Ducks have the same amount of games remaining, and the Oilers hold the tiebreaker between the two teams, the Oilers just need to match the Ducks’ record or win one more game than them to remain first. So this is in fact a very realistic option.
The Oilers won both games they’ve played against the Mammoth this year by a margin of 11–5. The final game in the season series is up next on Tuesday, and a win would make this matchup more likely, as well as make the Oilers fans even more confident in wanting them as the first-round opponent.
Interestingly, the Mammoth actually have as many non-shootout wins as the Oilers (they are the only team in the league to not have played a single shootout so far); so despite the lopsided two games, it would appear that these are two evenly matched teams. The Mammoth have also allowed the least amount of goals of any of the four options posted, and have the highest goal differential of +38, 30 more than the Oilers.
So arguably, the Mammoth are in fact the best team of the four, and perhaps we shouldn’t be letting a two-game sample sway us this much?
The Los Angeles Kings again?
This was the second-most picked option at 34.3%, despite it being the least likely one that could happen. Unlike the last four years, the Kings are fighting for a wild card spot rather than one of the top three places in the division.
In order for there to be any chance the Oilers play the Kings, the Kings have to not just make the playoffs, but get to at least the first wild card spot and the Oilers would also have to win the division. Considering the Kings aren’t even in the second wild card, that seems like a big ask.
They are currently five points behind the Mammoth, which, with just six games left in their season, seems like a pretty insurmountable task. That’s especially when you consider that there are two other teams that the Kings would also have to beat in the standings.
There is another path available for the Kings and Oilers to possibly happen, which is the Kings overtaking the Vegas Golden Knights for that third spot in the division. However, that is essentially the same as them getting past the Mammoth, as the Knights also have 86 points to the Kings’ 81.
The Kings do have a game in hand, meaning that the difference is three points, in the “assume they win that game in hand” way (similar to the “assume the black jack dealer’s next card is a 10” thought). Three points in six games is much more realistic.
But, again, there is another team that stands in their way: the San Jose Sharks, who have two points less than the Kings, but they have a game in hand on the Kings. So, using the above logic, the Sharks are just three points below the Knights for that third spot and have an even better chance than the Kings to snag it.
So maybe we should have made the Sharks an option instead? Probably, but let’s be real, people chose the Kings because a) they should be an easier team to beat (the Oilers lost one game in shootout but then demolished the Kings 8–1 a month later) and b) five years in a row against one team is insane, and beating them for a fifth year in a row would be even crazier.
Personally, I would not want to play the Kings, just based on the fact that if you give them enough chances, eventually they have to win, right? Plus, they now have the secret game seven weapon in Cody Ceci instead of the Oilers, which is a risk we just can’t take.
Vegas Golden Knights not so popular
The third choice, with 20% of the vote, is tied with the Mammoth as the most realistic option, as the Knights currently sit third in the Pacific Division with a pretty hefty lead over the remaining Pacific teams (as mentioned above).
Granted, with the Oilers now in a dogfight for first place, what seemed like basically an inevitable matchup is no longer the case.
In terms of entertainment, Vegas would definitely be the pick. The teams have a pretty deep-seated hatred of each other, which will happen when you’ve played in the second round twice in the past three years, series’ which produced their fair share of acrimonious moments, like say doing a two-hand slash to another guy’s hand eons after he took shot at an empty net when your team was losing 4–1 (which apparently is only just as bad as starting a fight after said slash resulting in equal suspensions).
In terms of chances to win, the Oilers won the first three games of the season series, although they were all close games (4–3, 4–2 and 4–3 in overtime). However, the 5-1 spanking last night doesn’t look so great heading into the post season.
While Vegas is in third place in the division, that is thanks in large part to a whopping 16 overtime losses, second in the league to only the Kings. While taking a game to OT is somewhat of a win in the regular season even if you lose, that’s not what counts in the playoffs. Sure, the playoffs are also 5v5 rather than three-on-three, but the fact remains that the Knights have lost a lot more games than they have won.
However, you can never count the Knights out, so it is still a pretty scary matchup regardless of the regular-season performance.
Fans are interested in the Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks were a distant last choice, not receiving a single vote.
You have to wonder if this is because people don’t want to play them, or because it is so unlikely to happen (even less than the Kings, I would say).
It would take a team not named the Ducks or Oilers would have to jump to the top of the division for this scenario to occur. The only team that has a legitimate chance of doing that is the Knights, but even that is pretty unlikely (they have a better chance of not making the playoffs than they do at winning the division).
I guess there is the other option of the Oilers or Ducks bottoming out to the point that they fall into that top wild card spot, but that would still take one of San Jose or L.A. to get seven or eight more points than the Oilers for the rest of the season. The Oilers would still need the Mammoth to get no more than two points more the Oilers (not to mention Nashville, but we’ll ignore them or else this becomes even more complicated).
The Oilers did win two of their three games against the Ducks this year, so again, this wouldn’t necessarily be a team that the Oilers can’t handle. But, they still have been the best team in the division for most of the season, have a solid goalie in Lukas Dostal, who could easily get hot and steal a series, and are also a burgeoning offensive team, as demonstrated by their 257 goals this year, just eight behind the Oilers. So it makes sense that they would be the least wanted option of these four teams, even taking out the miniscule chance of it occurring.
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