With a handful of games remaining in the 2025-26 NHL season, first round playoff matchups are starting to solidify. For the Oilers though, nothing is set in stone just yet. Based on how the standings are shaping up, it appears that the Oilers will face either the Vegas Golden Knights or the Utah Mammoth in the first round.
Oilers projected standings finish
With their win over the Chicago Blackhawks last night, which extended their season-long winning streak to five games, the Oilers pulled even with the Anaheim Ducks for top spot in the Pacific Division. The Ducks have a game in hand and one of the easiest schedules the rest of the way, but the Oilers are heating up and could definitely win the Pacific if they keep up their strong play.
The Golden Knights are three points back, and very much within striking distance as well.
The next closest Pacific team is the San Jose Sharks which are eight points back of the Oilers, so it’s very unlikely that the Oilers don’t finish in a top-three Pacific spot.
That means they’ll either win the division and play the first wild card team, or they’ll finish second or third and likely play whoever is in third or second respectively.
If the Oilers win the Pacific
If the Oilers do win the division, they’ll probably face the Mammoth. They’re five points up on the Sharks right now, and 12 points back of the Minnesota Wild in the Central Division. There’s no way they’re catching the Wild, and the Sharks are probably too far back to pass them at this point. Utah is almost guaranteed to finish in that first wild card spot.
The Oilers have fared well against the Mammoth this season. They are 2-0-0 and have outscored the Mammoth 11-5 in those two games. This would be a great matchup for the Oilers.
If the Oilers don’t win the Pacific
If they don’t win the Pacific, it’ll probably be the Golden Knights. It’s unlikely that Vegas passes both the Oilers and Ducks for first in the division, the math just doesn’t favour that outcome. Right now, the Golden Knights have a 3% chance to win the Pacific, compared to 61% for the Ducks and 35% for the Oilers.
This season, the Oilers have owned the Golden Knights. Over three games, the Oilers are 3-0-0 and have outscored Vegas 12-8.
Keep going, don’t stress
For the Oilers, the only thing they should care about right now is continuing to play the same way. They’re heating up, and have done very well against both Utah and Vegas in the regular season. Either matchup is winnable, especially if Leon Draisaitl rejoins the team for the first round.
