Our last check in was November 7, the day after an Edmonton Oilers loss to the Vegas Golden Knights. Though the pace of games has slowed recently, and the Oilers still sit in the fringe of the early playoff picture, the team has started gaining ground since then. With a 7–2–1 record in that span, the Oilers have not been perfect, but have been finding some gutsy results. Another slow October tainted the mood, but there has been a lot of good to go along with the bad this season. Let’s try to use a larger scope to chart the Oilers course.
Improvement in the penalty kill
A major reason for their playoff success, the Oilers early penalty killing woes were one of the leading causes for their October blues. At a glance, their roughly 72% efficiency on the season is still atrocious, but since that loss to the Golden Knights the Oilers have figured it out. The team allowed one power play goal in a 7–3 victory over the Vancouver Canucks, proceeding to keep the slate clean the next eight games. The Oilers did concede another power play goal against the Colorado Avalanche. Allowing a mere two power play goals in these 10 games is an incredible turnaround.
The fact that their overall efficiency is so poor speaks to how much of an issue this was, not to how the Oilers are currently playing. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the wins started to add up within this stretch. As a simple concept, equipping Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl with an elite penalty kill is enough to make the Oilers a threat in any game. Even on nights where things are not going well, the Oilers struggling to carry the play or generate even strength offence, this recipe gives the superstars a chance to eke out a win.
Blueline struggles are diminishing
Although the poor October results projected dysfunction, the Oilers are actually playing well defensively overall. This is key for supporting the goalies, a flawed tandem that is underestimated and inexpensive. Of course an elite talent would help Oil Country sleep a bit easier, but the philosophies at play behind the Oilers crease remain unchanged. By most stats the duo has not been good enough, but there is a good chance that Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard can improve these marks to league average as the season goes. While by no means the best tandem in the league, the Oilers are getting value on their cap dollars, which is worth something in of itself.
Adding another defenceman down the line would be a boon, often referenced as an inevitability as the Oilers add reinforcements. Still, Darnell Nurse and Brett Kulak have been playing quite well, giving the Oilers four quality defencemen. The oft maligned Nurse was clearly missed when he missed time with an injury, and both he and Kulak have been earning more icetime recently. Though it is expected of Evan Bouchard, the Oilers have received a significant amount of offensive production from their blueline as well. Mattias Ekholm joins Bouchard, Nurse, and Kulak as four of the top seven highest scoring Oilers after McDavid and Draisaitl.
Edmonton still has depth scoring issues
The offence from defencemen has been even more important given the Oilers lack of scoring as a whole. The Oilers do rank near the middle of the league in goals per game, but regression favours increased performance the rest of the season. The Oilers rank near the bottom of the league in shooting percentage and power play percentage, marks that are unlikely to continue.
Most of the negative focus has been cast upon underperforming veterans. The Oilers have been blessed with career seasons from Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins recently, though clearly 50-goal and 100-point seasons should not be the standards they are held to. It is not ideal that neither of them, nor the likes of Jeff Skinner, Viktor Arvidsson, and Adam Henrique have been producing at a 40-point pace. It would be concerning to finish the season that way, but one or two of them finding their scoring touch will go a long way towards the Oilers cause. It would not be unreasonable to expect some results in the weeks and months ahead.
On the other hand, there are some positives that deserve recognition. Outside the hope for bounce backs and the efforts of the blueline, some depth Oilers are having strong performances. Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown are chipping in more than expected. Vasily Podkolzin has been better than his eight points would suggest, likely the Oilers best addition of this offseason. Corey Perry is still finding a way to make an impact. Together this unheralded group brings a great deal of dimension to the lineup. The forwards deserve credit for the Oilers defensive play as well.
With respectable contributions through some leaner times, the Oilers do have a lot to work with. More is on the horizon, as Evander Kane is presumed to return at some point. Returning from injury and past his prime, Kane is still a threat to score at a 0.5 point per game pace, adding to the Oilers middle six group.
A look ahead
While things are trending in the right direction, the Oilers will need to keep improving as the season progresses if they are to reach their goal. December will see some stiff tests including a rematch against the reigning Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, as well as the chance to avenge recent losses against the Vegas Golden Knights and Minnesota Wild. With eight of their next 10 games at home, the Oilers will have the chance to make a strong move up the standings.
The schedule becomes a bit more road heavy after the holiday break, but still provides a lot of of winnable games. By the next time that the Oilers square off against the Colorado Avalanche, mid January, they should find themselves in a more comfortable position. While the start of the season was nowhere near as poor as last season, the Oilers did well to weather the storm.
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