At our last Oil Check at the beginning of December, the Edmonton Oilers were starting to turn things around with a 7–2–1 record in those 10 games.
These last eight games the Oilers have continued their improvement, going 6–2–0, with a five-game win streak that included two routs of top teams Minnesota Wild and Vegas Golden Knights. But for a late collapse against the Florida Panthers, the Oilers would have been at 7–1–0 with a seven-game win streak.
Overall, the Oilers outscored their opponents 33 to 19 in this stretch, a goal differential of +14 which is second in the league in this span.
This run has the Oilers sitting in third place in the Pacific Division, two points behind second place and five behind first.
The Oilers have looked every bit the Stanley Cup favourite that was expected at the beginning of the season. Let’s take a look at the reasons why.
Has goaltending improved?
Much of the Oilers woes this season have been placed on the goaltending, specifically on starter Stuart Skinner.
Skinner currently has a goals against average of 2.93 and a save percentage of 0.893, which puts him at 26th and 27th respectively of all NHL goalies who have played 15 or more games this season.
But Skinner has performed quite well during this current eight-game stretch. In his six starts, he has a 0.909 save percentage, good for ninth in the league. But that number is heavily skewed by the barn burner 6–5 loss to the Panthers. In the other five games, Skinner stopped 128 of the 137 shots he faced, a save percentage of 0.934. His lowest save percentage was 0.923, so it’s also not overly skewed by one good game.
Calvin Pickard also performed admirably in his two starts, winning both with a 0.923 save percentage.
It’s always been the mantra that if the Oilers got even just 0.900 save percentage goaltending they would win more often than not. When it’s 0.920 plus, then they are basically unbeatable.
Will this level of goaltending continue for the rest of the season? Highly unlikely. But if Skinner and Pickard can keep up some level of consistent, slightly above average goaltending, then the Oilers should have no issues heading into the post season.
Depth scoring? In this economy?
The other big issue for the Oilers this season was depth scoring, or the lack thereof.
In the first 24 games, the third highest scoring forward was Ryan Nugent-Hopkins with just 12 points. In fact, four of the Oilers’ top eight scorers were defencemen.
That has turned around in a hurry these last eight games.
Sure, Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid are still well in front with mind boggling point totals of 18 and 14, good for first and tied for fifth in the league. But they have actually received some run support now, which again is contributing to the Oilers dominance.
Zach Hyman returned from his injury and news that he didn’t make Team Canada for the 4 Nations Faceoff with a vengeance, scoring eight goals in seven games. The top five on team scoring is rounded out by Nugent-Hopkins’ six points and Connor Brown’s five.
All but two forwards who have played more than one game have scored at least one goal and/or two points, showing that the bottom six is contributing some.
Plus, it looks like the Oilers may have finally found some consistent lines, with the biggest one being Draisaitl mustering up chemistry with Vasily Podkolzin and Kasperi Kapanen. That has allowed the Oilers to run a fairly deep forward group where each line can hold their own at any given point.
The defence scoring is still there too, with Darnell Nurse and Evan Bouchard each posting five assists, and Mattias Ekholm having two goals and four points.
If the depth can continue to produce and give Draisaitl and McDavid a break (or allow them to go supernova apparently), then the Oilers are going to be in great shape.
Power play merchants
The Oilers power play group for the last few seasons has been one of the best, if not the best, in NHL history. But this season has not been it, as entering December the Oilers were 23rd in the league at a measly 17.7%.
They seem to have found their mojo again though, as over these eight games the Oilers are third in the league with a 36.8% success rate on the man advantage.
It should be noted that the power play isn’t why the Oilers are winning, but rather why they are winning big. The Oilers are first in the league in this stretch in 5v5 goals with 24 in eight games, in addition to their third place seven power play goals.
Draisaitl is the future highest paid player for a reason
Draisaitl may not be getting his pay raise and title as the most expensive player until next season, but he has been showing why he is deserving of it.
As mentioned above, Draisaitl has a league leading 18 points in these eight games, which has pushed him to second in league scoring for the entire season with 50 in 32 games, just two points behind Nathan MacKinnon in two less games. That puts him on pace to tie his career high 128 points.
Draisaitl’s six goals in eight games have also helped him keep his hold on the goal scoring lead, with 23 goals on the season, and on pace for a career high 59.
Draisaitl capped off this eight-game stretch by notching his 900th career point assisting on Ekholm’s overtime winner against Boston.
Draisaitl is certainly making it hard for people to “forget about Drai” and has himself in the conversation for almost every possible award a forward can win. McWho, am I right?
Looking ahead
The Oilers next eight games include a back-to-back against the San Jose Sharks and Ottawa Senators, followed by a mini California road trip to L.A. and Anaheim before coming back home to ring in the New Year against Utah. The Oilers play the Ducks for a second time then head to Seattle before finishing off the next eight-game stretch with yet another game against the Bruins.
The way the team is rolling right now, the Oilers can certainly beat each and every team. Granted, maybe the only team hotter than Edmonton is the Senators. This makes that last game before Christmas a potentially much more entertaining affair than one may have expected at the start of the season with how these two clubs were playing. The Los Angeles Kings are similarly on a roll, and with the added pressure of being in direct competition for home ice and the increased animosity between the two teams, it should also be a fun but hard game.
You would hope the Oilers can easily beat the Sharks, Ducks, and Kraken, but of course there is no such thing as a gimme in the NHL.
The Oilers should look to continue their winning ways over this stretch, especially since it isn’t the gauntlet that the last 10 games were, and hopefully give themselves even more breathing room when it comes to a playoff spot.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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