Amidst another slower start to a regular season, it follows that there is a heightened degree of dissatisfaction within Oil Country as the Edmonton Oilers hover outside a wildcard spot. Just as winning cures all ailments, the lack thereof will undoubtedly fester in negativity. As such there is no shortage of issues or concerns to bring to the forefront as the Oilers search for better results.
Lingering for a while now is the Oilers blueline. There have been personnel changes since last season, yet the most significant change might be a new role for Brett Kulak. After years of good play Kulak has started to earn more minutes, and on his weak side. Though not the most highly skilled player, this new role for Kulak is proving to be a massive upgrade for the Oilers, potentially even reshaping the blueline as a whole. Let’s take a look at the impact and implications of the Oilers reshaped blueline.
Top pairing role is taken
Though Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm have not played their best hockey to this point, the duo clearly have the ability to be one of the NHL’s best defence pairings. Valuations of Bouchard’s game are doomed to volatility. With a blend of offensive skill and size, Bouchard’s lack of physicality will always earn him doubters. At the very least, Bouchard is not safe from critical eyes.
Ekholm is a fantastic fit, embodying the traits of sound, physical, defensive play to complement Bouchard. A defensive pairing should be symbiotic, a collaboration capable of handling as many on ice situations as possible. Hasty or frustrated fans might write off Bouchard as “big for nothing” or lacking defensive details, while they might write off Ekholm for being past his prime. Though the pairing has had some less flattering moments so far, as they did early last season, this should be a pairing that the Oilers look to for high level play until the last day of their season.
How to improve Nurse’s play
The issue becomes filling in the depth chart beyond the top pairing. Darnell Nurse is always front and centre, in large part thanks to his large cap hit. No stranger to criticism, Nurse is often a target for the Oilers defensive woes, to the point where consensus might skew towards reductive. Fans have long written off Nurse, either via the eye test or analytics, yet coaches and teammates rarely seem to subscribe to these opinions. Look no further than Coach Kris Knoblauch himself, who has been relying on Nurse for more and more icetime as the season has gone.
| Player | Position | GP | CF% | GF% | xGF% |
| Mattias Ekholm | D | 16 | 64.41 | 60 | 63.47 |
| Evan Bouchard | D | 16 | 63.64 | 58.33 | 62.29 |
| Brett Kulak | D | 16 | 57.06 | 44.44 | 60.62 |
| Ty Emberson | D | 14 | 53.96 | 37.5 | 55.07 |
| Troy Stecher | D | 12 | 48.67 | 50 | 50.21 |
| Darnell Nurse | D | 16 | 51.11 | 44.44 | 49.93 |
| Travis Dermott | D | 6 | 48.31 | 33.33 | 33.52 |
Naturalstattrick.com 5v5 stats
Taking a look at the stats above, we can see that Nurse’s numbers are not flattering. These types of stats are useful in forming opinions, either confirming or challenging prior beliefs, but are hardly all encompassing. For one, public stats can be less accurate, as often there is a discrepancy between those stats and ones that come from more lucrative enterprises. Another angle might be the roles players are asked to play, with or against whom, or what the game context is. Finally, some players’ skill sets might lend themselves to better stats, often those with transition talents. A strong team requires players who excel in these areas, but requires a blend of other talents as well.
Specifically, Nurse has been handling a lot of the defensive zone starts recently, and does not enjoy playing alongside Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl nearly as much as Ekholm and Bouchard do. While these factors do not condemn Nurse to worse flow of play metrics, they certainly do not help. Again, this emphasises how these stats alone do not encompass a player’s worth, and that coach Knoblauch is trusting Nurse with some of the harder thankless tasks each night.
The perfect partner for Nurse
For a long while a focus of Oilers trade speculation has centred on finding Nurse a partner who can elevate his talents. To this day speculation around various right shot defencemen persists, begging the question of who might help Nurse replicate the symbiotic relationship that Ekholm and Bouchard have together.
The Oilers have found some intriguing value options in Troy Stecher and Ty Emberson. Slight but sound defenders, both have some defensive harmony with Nurse, who brings the edge of in-zone defending that both lack. Their capable transition play is an asset, especially defensively, as it would be unwise to give Nurse a partner who could not chip in to breakout passing. Both are short of being ready for the minutes or the matchups required of being thought of as a true top four defenceman, yet there is a lot to appreciate from a stylistic standpoint.
Opinions on what the Oilers need here are split, as two notable right shot defencemen have already been on the move this season. Many felt that Dante Fabbro or Timothy Liljegren might have been quality options, yet both were pushed out of teams aiming for playoff spots onto weaker teams. The Oilers cannot afford an all star calibre player, as most realistic trade options will come with some sort of question mark.
However, the Oilers have recently thrown a wrench into the equation, as Brett Kulak has started to take on more responsibility. As the third pairing left shot, Kulak’s flow of play metrics have been stellar, leading to some suggesting he should be pushing Nurse for icetime. Having defenceman play on their strong sides is ideal, but Nurse and Kulak both being left shots has obscured a truth. Kulak is a fantastic partner for Nurse.
| Rank | Line | Minutes | xGoals For Per 60 Minutes | xGoals Against Per 60 Minutes | xGoals % |
| 1 | Nurse-Kulak | 66.7 | 3.24 | 1.44 | 69.20% |
| 2 | Ekholm-Bouchard | 278.6 | 3.49 | 2.07 | 62.80% |
| 3 | Kulak-Emberson | 142.5 | 2.7 | 1.85 | 59.30% |
| 4 | Nurse-Stecher | 118.1 | 2.9 | 2.64 | 52.30% |
| 5 | Kulak-Stecher | 30.1 | 1.99 | 2.99 | 40% |
| 6 | Stecher-Emberson | 18.1 | 1.66 | 2.66 | 38.50% |
| 7 | Nurse-Emberson | 15.3 | 1.17 | 2.35 | 33.30% |
| 8 | Nurse-Dermott | 72.2 | 1.41 | 3.74 | 27.40% |
Moneypuck.com 5v5 stats, minimum 15 minutes
The duo has already been deployed together in over a dozen games for the Oilers, albeit circumstantially. Often, the duo’s shifts together come throughout the game, interspersed with some shifts apart. Kulak’s ability to control flow of play metrics continues with Nurse, and the results for both are elevated together. Kulak is exactly the type of sound two-way player that supports and complements Nurse. These numbers are proof of concept that Nurse and Kulak can thrive together, giving the Oilers a rock solid top four.
Trickle down the defensive lineup
The team would still have Stecher and Emberson should they opt for an even split of left and right shots, but the team has not been afraid to deploy the right shots together when Nurse and Kulak paired up. A right handed defenceman similar to Kulak might be the ideal Nurse partner, though Kulak himself is a very good fit.
The wrinkle here is that playing Kulak on the right opens up new trade possibilities for the Oilers. Instead of searching for a unicorn, a right shot who elevates Nurse, can play top four minutes and comes at a modest price is widened. Left shots are slightly more abundant, and thus less costly. Finding a player who can thrive in third pairing minutes is also much easier as well. With the number of potential options more than doubled, the Oilers will have more choice and a better price. Perhaps the trade of Ben Gleason, often listed as the Oilers first call up option on the left side, was a sign that the Oilers might be looking at left shot options.
By no means is he a perfect player, but as Nurse and Kulak continue their strong partnership it might be time that the naysayers update their opinions of Nurse. On their current trajectory as a pairing, Nurse and Kulak will produce excellent results in advanced statistics. Combined with increased icetime and team success, it could be an impressive bounce back for one of the NHL’s most criticised players.
Nurse isn’t going anywhere
In the end it is unlikely that any partner would make Nurse worth his cap hit, but clearly he is still an important contributor. Moving Kulak to the right side enhances Nurse’s play, makes the Oilers a stronger team, and gives them better leverage in the trade market. The Oilers are a true contending team who have a stronger process than their record currently shows. A foundational piece of the Oilers blueline, there are only a select number of NHLers who could fill Nurse’s spot, and no guarantee that any of those players will be available to the Oilers.
