The Edmonton Oilers recently signed goaltending prospect Eemil Vinni to a contract. On its own it is a good sign, but a deeper look into the depth chart offers a curious view.
Who is Vinni?
Drafted in the second round in 2024, Vinni has been held in high regard by some goalie scouts. He has a good blend of size, athleticism, and technique that had many projecting good things beyond his raw stats.
Vinni had back surgery in the offseason that he was drafted. After a year of getting his game back, Vinni exploded down the stretch of last season. While his regular season statistics do not jump off of the page, Vinni has authored some promising stretches, particularly in big moments. He has played well internationally, and delivered a strong playoff performance this past season.
Between his pedigree and the progress shown of late, Vinni clearly caught the Oilers attention. The second round is a fairly significant investment in a goalie, so it is not altogether surprising that the Oilers feel strongly about Vinni. It will certainly take a few more strong seasons before he warrants NHL consideration, but he is a name worth knowing in the Oilers system.
Crowded in the crease for the Oilers
The curious issues around the signing are not to do with Vinni himself. Rather, the Oilers already have a crowded goaltending situation from the NHL down to the ECHL. This crowding has only gotten more apparent this offseason. While goaltending depth is appreciated, especially at the NHL level, at lower levels it might keep young goalies from development opportunities.
Chances are the Oilers will have their hands full managing the three goalies on their NHL roster. Devon Levi is the youngest of the trio, and to an extent a full season in the NHL is enough to constitute progression. Veterans Frederik Andersen and Tristan Jarry might insulate Levi well, though the Oilers will certainly hope that Levi can earn a significant amount of starts over the season. Andersen’s injury history might warrant some additional help, especially if Levi is not ready to run with the starter’s job. Jarry can keep Levi from being forced into more than he is ready for.
Meanwhile, the trend is consistent and more concerning at lower levels. Matt Tomkins features as a veteran in the AHL, with prospect Connor Ungar behind him. Ungar got his first extended look in the AHL last season, and still has to prove himself as a reliable starter in that league. At 24 years of age Ungar is lacking enough of an AHL resume to fully commit to him as the starter.
While he has raised his profile recently, the crowding in past years also prevented him from more AHL experience. His play might warrant the opportunity to prove himself as the AHL starter, but his resume is lacking enough to give pause. There is a backlog, and Ungar’s relative lack of experience is both a symptom and a cause of scarcity for opportunities available.
Because the Oilers cannot entrust the starting AHL role to Ungar, it keeps other prospects from an opportunity to prove themselves as the AHL backup. Last season, Samuel Jonsson and Nathaniel Day served as the tandem for the ECHL affiliate Fort Wayne Komets. Both goalies played quite well, and might both deserve a shot at the AHL backup role this coming season as it stands.
Day finished his OHL career, so this was a step up for his progression. This is encouraging of course. The same might not be said for Jonsson, who was performing extremely well in the Allsvenskan, and even earning a look in the SHL the season prior. Now, seemingly blocked from even an AHL backup role, it is curious the Oilers were so keen to take Jonsson from Sweden instead of letting him continue to develop there.
Consider that last season Ungar played for three different ECHL teams, two of which were not affiliated with the Oilers. He eventually ended up with 13 games in the AHL, but clearly the Oilers were forced into being very creative to give him a decent workload. It hardly seems ideal to have Jonsson or Day locked into another ECHL season, even prior to considering how Vinni might fit into all this.
What lies ahead for Vinni
Given the lack of opportunity, it makes a lot of sense for the Oilers to loan Vinni back to Finland next season. With a full complement of health, the Oilers will be forced to find non-affiliated ECHL teams to loan one of their goalies to, as they did with Ungar last season. Jonsson seems to have the best track record, and could follow that path, bouncing around the ECHL before getting a stint as an AHL backup next season.
A key cog in sorting the logjam is Tomkins, who does not seem to be threatening any NHL action. If Ungar can prove himself steady enough, he should be able to assert himself as the Oilers fourth string option outright. Without Tomkins the depth chart is less congested. Theoretically this would leave Ungar and Jonsson to share AHL duties, with Day and Vinni sharing ECHL duties.
Still, it does not give much time for the team to sort out the future. At some point the Oilers will have to commit to Ungar as a potential NHL option or cut him loose, and there is far from enough AHL information to feel much confidence in that decision at this point. Withholding opportunities from Jonsson, Day, and Vinni will only recreate the same issue down the line.
Injuries can certainly factor into the equation here, and at least the Oilers are insulated in that respect. The Oilers do gain a closer eye on these prospects by having them in North America, which might ultimately be their reasoning for bringing Jonsson and potentially Vinni over. Development from prospects is uncertain at the best of times, even more so amongst goalies.
While the Oilers strategy here cannot be dismissed as wrong outright, it is at the very least unorthodox and curious, if not inelegant. To their credit it does seem like there is a lot of positive movement among their prospects, so perhaps it is working on some level.
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