The Edmonton Oilers forward depth has been tested early in the season. Between adjusting to a new coach and the attrition, the start of the season has offered adversity and opportunity.
Let’s take a look at some of the changes and performances.
Coach Babcock with new systems in play
Among the most noticeable changes under new Coach Mike Babcock is the difference on how the forward group generates offence. Historically, the Connor McDavid era Oilers have been an offence that relies heavily on attacking off of the rush. The opposite is now true, as the Oilers have transitioned to relying on the cycle, and in-zone or half-court offence. They are also dumping the puck in more.
While not as explosive as rush offence, cycle offence can be more effective. The opponent’s structure will wear down, and keeping possession in the attacking zone is a formidable form of defence in its own right. While the Oilers have not posted the strongest results by expected goals for, they have authored the strongest start to the season in the McDavid era.
The players that thrive in this type of system are stronger forecheckers, battlers along the wall, and physicality enough to gain body position in contested ice. To this end, the emergence of Colton Dach speaks volumes. Vasily Podkolzin has continued his growth, and of course Zach Hyman remains one of the Oilers best forwards. However, Dach earning his way up the lineup is telling of what is valued in this new system. To an extent, this explains the call up of Max Jones over smaller more skilled options like Quinn Hutson and Viljami Marjala.
Babcock will often use words like “heavy” to describe this style of play. Ferocity and strength are vital, but being hard to play against also involves forcing the other team to do so as well. Dumping the puck in might result in a turnover, but opponents will still have to navigate the length of the ice against five defenders. Turnovers at the opposing blueline can often lead to easy paths up the ice against a defence that is not set.
This is hardly the only path to victory, but it is one that has succeeded in the playoffs. The Florida Panthers played a similar style in their Stanley Cup victories. The relative lawlessness of the playoffs can lend itself to this style of play.
Babcock’s confidence in his lineup decision
Babcock has made his thoughts clear on certain players in the lineup. He believes in Dach, but mentioned that Hyman and Podkolzin should serve as examples. Their relentless effort is unquestioned, as Dach can still be more consistent in this way.
Kasperi Kapanen fits the system well, using his speed as a forechecker. During his Oilers tenure Kapanen has relied on this aspect of his game, revitalizing his career by allowing his skill to come second after his effort. To an extent many of the Oilers offseason additions favoured speed and strength on the wings. Mathieu Joseph and Alex Formenton come to mind.
Certain decisions are difficult to predict. While Isaac Howard does not fit the archetype his place in the lineup was anything but guaranteed coming into the season. Matthew Savoie, on the other hand, will be an interesting case study. Savoie became an extremely important forward last season, but will be jumping on a moving train coming back from injury. While a smaller, skilled winger might bolster the forward group, Savoie will be in tough to pick up where he left off.
Elsewhere, the decision between Owen Michaels and Josh Samanski took fans by surprise. While Samanski is the bigger player, Babcock highlighted a lack of simplicity in Samanski’s game. Clearly Babcock is prioritizing heavy hockey in the bottom of his lineups, illustrated by the emphasis on dump-ins and forechecks over ambitious and creative plays off the rush. Michaels has had some issues, being heavily outshot, but his right shot is key for faceoffs. Expect the Oilers to target a right shot faceoff option later this season.
Mock lineup
As much as full health is elusive in the NHL, let’s take a look at how the Oilers might lineup their forwards with all their options available.
Podkolzin—McDavid—Draisaitl
Hyman—Nugent-Hopkins—Savoie
Dach—Dickinson—Kapanen
Formenton—Michaels—Joseph
Howard—Samanski—Janmark
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