At the height of his powers, there is little doubt that Connor McDavid continues to reign as the world’s best player. Nearly as rare, the Edmonton Oilers are also blessed with Leon Draisaitl, not too far behind. As their primes have coalesced the dynamic duo has redefined dominance in the salary cap era. Despite their individual excellence, they cannot achieve their ultimate goal alone. Team success was elusive, if not fleeting, earlier in their careers. By design or by fortunate timing, the Ken Holland era saw that trend change, the team steadily getting closer and closer to a Stanley Cup victory.
What did change for the Oilers over that span was the strength of the team beyond McDavid and Draisaitl. There have been some outstanding additions to the forward group to supplement them, most notably Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The depth here was improved as well, holding their own without the stars on the ice. Perhaps it might be conceded that the goaltending has improved as well, though the ascending Stuart Skinner remains an afterthought on most projections for a best-on-best team Canada roster. The glory of a Stanley Cup is earned as a collective. These upgrades are certainly valuable, though as of last season a tad short.
There is a far clearer distinction within the Oilers growth, the emergence of what might be the best defence pairing in the league. A balance of two elite defencemen come together to bring the most out of each other. The reliable and physical veteran defensive force Mattias Ekholm, and the singular offensive talents of the young Evan Bouchard, equal parts bombastic and graceful. Let’s take a deeper look at whether or not the Oilers have a claim for the title of the NHL’s best defence pairing.
NHL’s top defencemen
Although not entirely based on empirical data, the NHL Network did release a list of its top 20 defencemen. Given their success together, it is clear that Bouchard and Ekholm are both held in as high regard as they have ever been. Bouchard is still coming into his own, or at least building up his resume and reputation, and is already in a tier amongst the bulk of the perennial Norris Trophy contenders.
Presumably, a defenceman ranked ahead of Bouchard might constitute enough of a difference to give their pairing an edge here. Regardless, the true takeaway should be how blessed the Oilers are to have Bouchard, surrounded by his peers within the next wave of the league’s foundational excellence on the blueline. Of course, their standing is relative to the rest of the league, and they will have equally impressive competition throughout their proverbial chase for the crown.
The Oilers can defend this charge, thanks to as ideal a partner as one could imagine. Ekholm is deserving of his spot, but as the list grows deeper so does the number of worthy candidates for each slot. It must be admitted that Bouchard, and the Oilers as a whole, have given him the stage to shine. It is rare and impressive for one team to have two defencemen on such a list, but obviously the Oilers are not alone in this. The Colorado Avalanche have both Cale Makar and Devon Toews voted into the top 10, Makar holding top spot.
Call it the court of public opinion or measuring things on paper, but by this vague and interpretative methodology it does make sense that fans outside of Oil Country might scoff at the idea. By the same hand, their proximity to this imaginary throne is undeniable. Perhaps Bouchard has not quite convinced the public of a higher ranking, but in truth this might have more to do with the length of his resume.
Within a given season Bouchard might be able to outperform any of these defencemen, but to climb to the top in the eyes of the public is an even taller task. Luckily, Ekholm is a fantastic option who can fully support Bouchard. Ekholm is getting closer to 40-years-old, and should not be expected to keep up his best forever. Another two or three seasons of Ekholm being able to keep up would give Bouchard ample time to cement himself as a true superstar in his own right.
Already with a season and a half of excellent play together under their belts, Ekholm and Bouchard certainly have a degree of chemistry. Another season or two of this status quo would represent a long enough run time for the pairing to entrench themselves as an era defining duo, if they have not already.
Using xG to measure their success
| Rank | Line | Minutes | xGoals % | xGoals For Per 60 Minutes | xGoals Against Per 60 Minutes |
| 1 | Ekholm-Bouchard | 1186.1 | 62.80% | 3.73 | 2.22 |
| 2 | Heiskanen-Harley | 605 | 61.50% | 3.18 | 1.99 |
| 3 | Orlov-Chatfield | 843.5 | 59.40% | 2.75 | 1.88 |
| 4 | Josi-McDonagh | 440.4 | 59.40% | 3.43 | 2.34 |
| 5 | Forsling-Ekblad | 679.6 | 58.90% | 3.05 | 2.13 |
| 6 | Lindholm-Mcavoy | 317.5 | 57.30% | 2.59 | 1.93 |
| 7 | Slavin-Burns | 1186 | 57% | 3 | 2.26 |
| 8 | Josi-Fabbro | 604.6 | 56.30% | 3.01 | 2.33 |
| 9 | Heiskanen-Suter | 575.9 | 56.20% | 2.77 | 2.16 |
| 10 | Gavrikov-Roy | 1005.6 | 56.20% | 2.94 | 2.29 |
| 11 | Seeler-Walker | 645.1 | 55.90% | 3.13 | 2.47 |
| 12 | Aho-Reilly | 360 | 55.70% | 2.87 | 2.28 |
| 13 | McDonagh-Schenn | 373.7 | 55.60% | 2.95 | 2.36 |
| 14 | Dahlin-Jokiharju | 497.3 | 55.30% | 2.73 | 2.21 |
| 15 | Kulak-Desharnais | 739.2 | 55.20% | 2.52 | 2.05 |
| 16 | Toews-Makar | 1035 | 55.10% | 2.83 | 2.31 |
| 17 | Sanderson-Zub | 828.6 | 55.10% | 2.59 | 2.11 |
| 18 | Girard-Manson | 463.8 | 55% | 2.83 | 2.32 |
| 19 | Samberg-Schmidt | 530 | 54.80% | 2.28 | 1.88 |
| 20 | Nurse-Ceci | 995.1 | 54.80% | 3.18 | 2.63 |
There are more tangible ways to measure which NHL defence pairing is the best, numbers. Data can be manipulated to tell certain stories all the same, in some sense just as dogmatic a measurement methodology. Context and nuance must be a filter, though this task is easier said than done.
In this 2023–24 season chart measuring expected goals for defence pairings that saw more than 300 even strength minutes (moneypuck.com), Ekholm and Bouchard lead the NHL. Even more impressively, Ekholm and Bouchard upheld these results across the entire season. Other top defencemen make appearances on this list, as Miro Heiskanen and Roman Josi both appear twice, as well as Gustav Forsling, Charlie McAvoy, and Jacob Slavin find themselves in the top 10.
This might seem like an open and closed case, but clearly there is more at play. The Oilers have two other pairings in the top 20, with Brett Kulak and Vincent Desharnais at 15th, and Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci at 20th. Clearly the Oilers strength as a team is inflating these measurements. While this might be a grain of salt to take these stats with, only so much can be discredited from Bouchard and Ekholm by this logic. Even the excuse that Ekholm and Bouchard get to play behind McDavid only holds so much water, as others have done so without nearly as much success before.
Context is required in role as well. A clear example is Dmitri Orlov and Jalen Chatfield ranking ahead of Jacob Slavin and Brent Burns. Both pairings were fantastic of course, but Burns and Slavin did their work under tougher circumstances. Burns and Slavin were clearly the better players, and no Carolina Hurricanes fan would suggest otherwise.
What can be expected of the duo
The truth of this exercise is that there is not often a clear answer to the question of which NHL defence pairing is best. All those looking to judge will have their preferences or biases. Even if a consensus is formed, this mantle is fleeting, and to an extent meaningless.
Nevertheless, the Ekholm and Bouchard pairing represents the culmination of teambuilding successes the Oilers have orchestrated during the McDavid era. While they certainly have a legitimate argument to be the league’s best defence pairing, the more important fact is that it gives the Oilers blueline a sturdy foundation to be amongst the top third of the league in its own right.
The Oilers Cup window exists because of McDavid and Draisaitl. Even without Bouchard inserting himself into that rarefied air alongside them, providing the star duo a top 10 blueline league wide is the key to perennial contention. Individually, they lead both Oilers special teams units, overwhelming forces that propelled the Oilers out of the Western Conference. Together, they have as good a case as any to be considered the league’s top pairing. Clearly, not every fan will agree, but those around the league underestimate the Oilers top defence duo at their own peril.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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