Coming into this season, the big offseason splashes were made up front, turning an already offensive team into an even greater scoring threat.
But the back end made headlines in the other direction, after the team lost Philip Broberg to an offersheet and Cody Ceci as a cap casualty, leaving the Edmonton Oilers down two of their intended top-six defencemen.
So what are the expectations of the remaining blueliners? In general, the expectations are high, as the Oilers are looking to return to the Stanley Cup Final and finish the job this year after coming agonizingly close last year. We will take a look at each player and how I think they will stack up this season.
Evan Bouchard
The expectations for Evan Bouchard are sky high this season. That will happen when you finish fourth in the league in points among defencemen and second in assists, not to mention finishing fifth in Norris Trophy voting. Also, breaking the NHL record for most assists in a playoff run when the previous record holder is your hall of fame coach adds a cherry on top to it.
The minimum expectation for Bouchard this year will be a point per game pace, which isn’t exactly unreasonable considering he has scored 101 points in 102 regular season games since Tyson Barrie was traded, and a further 49 points in 37 playoff games. I say he passes both 20 goals and 90 points and gets himself a Norris Trophy nomination.
Mattias Ekholm
If there is anyone to “blame” for the lofty expectations placed on Bouchard, it would be Mattias Ekholm. He has meshed perfectly with Bouch, being the defensive stalwart to his offensive dynamo.
EKholm’s performance isn’t necessarily measured in points, although he set career highs in goals (11) and points (45) last season. While it is a flawed and controversial stat, he led the Oilers with a +44 last season, which was also good for third in the NHL. In fact, he is a +72 in the 100 games since joining the team, the best in the league over that time, 11 higher than Gustav Forsling.
Ekholm is coming into the season at 34-years-old, which always brings the risk of a dip due to getting older. But I say given his chemistry with Bouchard, he staves it off and finishes with similar point and plus-minus totals and continues to be the anchor on the Oilers blue line.
Darnell Nurse
Is it possible to have both extremely high but also low expectations at the same time? When it comes to Darnell Nurse, I think it is.
On the one hand, you have high expectations that come with a $9.25M AAV, the eighth highest among defencemen in the league. On the other, Nurse’s failure to live up to the contract last year has set the bar lower for what Oilers fans will actually be happy with this year.
Nurse had his worst season, points wise, since his rookie season, with only 32 points, although he did score double digits in goals for the fourth time in his career. For as much flak as he gets, he is still 13th highest defenceman in the league in goals since 2018–19, and 25th in points.
But the big positive for Nurse is that the majority of his points come at even strength. His 179 even strength points since 2018–19 is 12th in the league, and his 54 even strength goals is fifth, just one behind Victor Hedman. Granted, he drops to 37th and 12th when looking at the team since Ekholm arrived and took over as the team’s number 1 defenceman.
I’ll again use the flawed plus-minus as a marker of Nurse’s play. Nurse was only a +3 last season, after being +27, +18, and +26 the previous three.
For Oilers fans to be happy with Nurse this year, he just needs to play solid defensive hockey with limited gaffes, strong physical play, and continue to score at even strength. With Ekholm and Bouchard, the Oilers have the luxury of not needing Nurse to fully live up to his $9.25M contract.
I expect with a new defensive partner this season, whether it is Ty Emberson, Troy Stecher, or someone else, that Nurse rebounds to form and does exactly that, finishing with the third 40+ point season of his career and double digit plus-minus.
Brett Kulak
Brett Kulak has been a fan favourite in Edmonton ever since he arrived in 2021–22. The hometown defender plays a simple, hard game anchoring the third pairing and being able to step up the lineup occasionally when needed.
He may not be the biggest scorer, but he did set a career high in assists (17) and points (20) two seasons ago, and scored eight points in 25 playoff games last spring.
Given the Oilers appear to be striving towards being an offensive dynamo team again this year, I think Kulak continues to put up decent numbers from the third pair, and does beat 20 points again.
Ty Emberson
Ty Emberson may have some of the “highest” expectations coming into the season, although perhaps it could be more appropriately termed as hope.
Originally, the trade that brought in Emberson was thought to be a deal to rid the team of Cody Ceci’s cap hit in order to be able to match the offer sheet signed by Philip Broberg. However, once the Oilers did not match, it became apparent that the Oilers made a hockey deal and think Emberson has the ability to play not just a regular role on the blue line, but as a top four defender.
Emberson showed well in his 30-game rookie season last year with San Jose, scoring 10 points. That was good for sixth among Sharks defencemen last season, despite playing 21 less games than fifth place Henry Thun, who only managed one more point.
Emberson also has history with Oilers Coach Kris Knoblauch, having won the AHL East’s Defensive Defenceman of the Year in 2022–23 under his tutelage.
It would appear that Emberson is ready to play in the NHL, but it remains to be seen if he can jump into top four on a Stanley Cup contender. After all, he was still just sixth in ice time on the Sharks blueline last year, a team that finished dead last. That is the expectation for him this year, and I think he manages to do it. The Oilers will still look to add to the right side at the deadline I’m sure, but I think Emberson will play well enough that they will be looking for more of a #5 than a second pairing type of player.
Josh Brown
In addition to the second pair right spot, with the departures of Ceci, Broberg and Vincent Desharnais, the sixth defenceman is also up for grabs this year and the Oilers have gone with a bit of a shot gun approach to see who will fill it.
Josh Brown has started training camp paired with Kulak, which would suggest he is getting the first look at that spot.
Brown had a career best 10 points in 51 games last season with the Arizona Coyotes, but playing only 14:45 per game isn’t exactly inspiring, along with him being called “just an awful player.”
Brown is a physical player, with 112 hits last year (although that is six less than Connor McDavid, fun fact), but if he is a regular player then either the Oilers are in trouble or he takes a giant leap forward at the age of 30. My expectation is that the combination of his play plus his salary ($1M) leads to him starting in the AHL, notwithstanding him starting on Kulak’s line to start camp.
Troy Stecher
Troy Stecher is the player that most people would pick to be the sixth defenceman. He was solid in his seven games with the team last year, and many were wanting for him to be put into the lineup in the playoffs to play next to Nurse but for an unfortunate ankle injury.
Stecher is not a defenceman known for his offensive prowess. His career highs are five goals, 21 assists, and 24 points, but since leaving Vancouver he hasn’t scored more than three goals, 11 assists or 14 points, all achieved two seasons ago. Last year he finished with seven points in 54 regular season games.
I would expect Stecher to be the player that starts the season alongside Kulak. Although it is possible that if Emberson doesn’t show that he is quite ready for top four, then he reprises his role as Nurse’s partner. Don’t expect much in the way of point totals for him though, and again I expect the Oilers to bring in a defenceman at some point in the season that will either push Stecher down or out of the lineup altogether.
The wildcards
In addition to the above seven, there are a few other players at camp that could push for an NHL spot.
Maximus Wanner is just 21-years-old, but he had a great first professional season in the AHL last year, with 17 points in 68 games and played regular minutes as a rookie. He is a defence first player as well, something that may be useful for the Oilers back end more than an offensive player. However, it may be a bit premature to expect a player to jump to the NHL two years after juniors. I expect Wanner to still start in the AHL, unless he blows it out of the water at camp to the point of getting a spot in the lineup, it doesn’t make sense for him to sit in the press box. Assuming he keeps it up in the AHL, he should at the very least get a cup of coffee or two this season.
Phil Kemp is another young defenceman who appears on the cusp of either taking the next step to becoming an NHL defenceman or staying as an AHL tweener. Given that he is older and did get called up last year (albeit to play one game at forward), I think Kemp currently has a better chance than Wanner at both making the team out of camp as well getting called up during the year. In fact, given his cap hit and the fact that he has to pass through waivers to be sent down, it wouldn’t surprise me if he starts in the NHL as the seventh defenceman over Brown. However, if he isn’t in a regular rotation like Wanner, it probably makes more sense development wise to have him playing in the AHL.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
