Why splitting up Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard could be a good thing

Ever since he was acquired at the trade deadline in 2022, Mattias Ekholm has been a staple on the top defensive pairing for the Edmonton Oilers and alongside Evan Bouchard. It’s been rare that the team separates the two. But in a recent game against the Boston Bruins, and again at practice in the lead up to the holiday break, the Oilers have been testing some new defensive pairings featuring the team’s top two defenders being split up.

New defence pairs at Oilers practice:

Nurse – Bouchard
Ekholm – Emberson
Kulak – Stecher#Oilers pic.twitter.com/gFMPRPQ3GD

— Tony Brar ? (@TonyBrarOTV) December 20, 2024

Although these pairings did not translate to Saturday afternoon’s nailbiter victory over the San Jose Sharks, it is telling that the team is trying these pairings out in practice. They could just be seeing what they have in case of emergency, but they could also be tinkering and getting ready to introduce a sweeping change to the defence pairings as this team progresses towards their ultimate goal of finally hoisting the Stanley Cup.

It may come as a concern, particularly the pairings above tested out in practice. After all, why would the team even consider separating Ekholm and Bouchard? Those two have the most time on ice together of any defensive pairing over the past two seasons and, in terms of their performance and underlying metrics, rank in or near the top five of defensive pairings with a minimum of 300 minutes of ice time in Corsi for percentage, scoring chances for percentage, and expected goals for percentage according to Natural Stat Trick.

There are plenty of reasons why the Oilers are such a strong defensive team, and the presence of a pairing as good as these two are together is a big part of that.

But, what if it began to make sense to split them up? There are reasons why it might be smart to get the defenders used to these new pairings early in anticipation of making this change in the future, maybe even the near future.

Nurse’s emergence as a legit defender

The journey has been filled with bumps and bruises, but Darnell Nurse‘s emergence as a legit defender in recent weeks gives the Oilers flexibility in their defensive lineup. They may not have to shelter him on the second pairing the same way they used to if he has found a new level to play at.

And for the $9M defender, that is only a positive thing.

Since returning from injury, Nurse’s game and output have taken a drastic turn for the better. Before his injury in mid-November, Nurse (among Oilers with 100 minutes of ice time) ranked 11th with a 47.4 goals for percentage and 19th with a 49.9 expected goals for percentage. After his return, he finds himself near the top of the team’s rankings. He sits second in goals for percentage at 78.6 and fifth in expected goals for percentage at 55.8.

This is the perfect opportunity to take advantage of Nurse’s hot streak to give him a chance to play more difficult minutes and have a defender like Bouchard to play with. Those two, both of whom are good at transition play and driving the rush offensively, could prove to be a potent combination for the Oilers’ offence.

Ekholm’s age beginning to show?

By no means has Ekholm been bad this season. He still remains the most important defender on the roster, and as we’ve seen recently, still has his clutch gene with big goals. But, it is around the time where Ekholm’s play will start regressing. It won’t be a sudden and drastic thing. The changes will be small and may not even be overly noticeable.

So far this season, we may be seeing the start of some of these small changes. Ekholm, normally quite strong on his feet and difficult to knock down, has been falling more and getting knocked down more. His reaction time and agility may have taken a slight dip, too.

Ekholm is 34 at this point and his best years are, based on age regression curves, likely behind him. Although he experienced a resurgence with the Oilers, it won’t be sustainable.

Developing a succession plan early will help ease the impact of that transition on the lineup when it inevitably comes time to enact it. And finding ways to reduce his ice time now will help prolong his productive years and ensure he can make a positive impact, even if it is in a smaller role.

Spread the developmental wealth to more Oilers

The impact on Bouchard’s development provided by Ekholm is impossible to put a value on. Bouchard would not be where he is today without this pairing over the past couple of seasons. Sure, he still has his fumbles, but he can now be relied on against the top opposition at even strength, he has found a new level offensively with the support of Ekholm’s defence, and Bouchard has quietly become one of the best rush defenders in the league.

Looking at the proposed pairings used in practice, the intention becomes abundantly clear. A developmental partner for Ty Emberson. The offseason acquisition was penciled in to play on the second pairing with Nurse, but he didn’t quite fit to start the year and has since been a staple on the third pairing and as the team’s top penalty killing defender.

But how amazing would it be for Ekholm to, even from a smaller even strength role, contribute to the development of another young defender on his way out? This could be an amazing opportunity for the team to solidify their right side for years to come, and for Emberson to elevate his game to another level.

Versatility in the lineup

We’ve seen this team at their best. We’ve seen this team at their worst. Sometimes, it would be nice to be able to swap more of the defenders around if a bit of a blender is needed. As it stands, the Oilers defence has been fairly consistent, with the exception of the rotating cast of defenders on the right side of the second pairing. Although it has settled on Troy Stecher with Brett Kulak jumping up to play with Nurse as games progress, there isn’t much else the team can or has tried.

Getting some alternative lines in, such as the ones being used in practice, could be a good way to have an alternative when the Oilers are in a slump and need to shake things up.

It may not be the ideal situation to split up one of the league’s best defensive pairings. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. But there is a solid rationale to begin testing what the lineup might look like if the Oilers do decide or need to split Ekholm and Bouchard up.

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Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire