Last summer, I ran through a couple of alternate history scenarios involving our Edmonton Oilers. They were pretty funny exercises, so I wanted to return to this topic.
Let’s go through one that often gets lost to history, that being the failed Mike Comrie-Corey Perry deal that fell through in December of 2003. This is a deal that would’ve dramatically changed both team’s fortunes, and I wanted to take a closer look at it. Just how different would the Oilers have been in the mid-2000s if Perry had been an Oiler to begin his career, rather than arriving as a crafty veteran in 2024?
The 2003–04 season
In December of 2003, the Oilers would have traded Mike Comrie to the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for Corey Perry, and Anaheim’s first-round pick in the upcoming 2004 draft.
In real life, the deal fell through because Oilers GM Kevin Lowe demanded Comrie personally repays the $2.5M in bonuses he accumulated during his entry-level contract. Perry was 18, still playing in the OHL with the London Knights. There wouldn’t have been any NHL impact, but a highly touted prospect and a first would’ve been a very positive future-minded return for Comrie.
How the next two drafts would’ve been affected
Edmonton would’ve had two first rounds at the 2004 draft, their own (which was 14th), and Anaheim’s (which was ninth). Anaheim took Ladislav Smid, and Edmonton took Devan Dubnyk. It’s plausible Edmonton would’ve also taken Smid, getting him two years earlier than when he would join the Oilers in real life, as well as betting on Dubnyk’s development.
However, the Oilers could’ve also taken Alexander Radulov (15th overall in real life), Travis Zajac (20th in real life), or Mike Green (29th in real life).
The 2004–05 lockout wouldn’t impact Edmonton too much. Perry would play his final year in junior, and the hype for him would be massive. He had 130 points in 60 regular season games, won the J. Ross Robertson Cup as OHL Champion and the Memorial Cup. He was also on the gold medal winning World Junior team. Perry would be primed to join an Oilers team with Ryan Smyth, Ales Hemsky, and Shawn Horcoff as the shining star of the future.
This would’ve stayed the exact same. With the 25th pick, the Oilers take Andrew Cogliano, who would develop into a dependable middle-six forward.
The 2005–06 season
One major diversion would have come immediately after though. After the Comrie-Perry deal fell through in real life, Lowe pivoted and dealt Comrie to Philadelphia for Jeff Woywitka, the Flyers’ 2004 first (became Rob Schremp) and their 2005 third rounder (became Danny Syvret).
However, in the 2005 offseason, the Oilers made the deal of the summer, acquiring Chris Pronger for Eric Brewer, Doug Lynch… and Jeff Woywitka. No Comrie to Philly, no Woywitka, no Pronger. Lowe would’ve likely got the deal done regardless, but dealt someone like Alexei Semenov or Marc-Andre Bergeron.
Assuming Pronger still arrives in Oil Country, the season plays out roughly the same as Perry makes his NHL debut. Perry had 25 points in 56 games in his actual first season, and I think those totals would have been fairly unchanged in Edmonton. The Oilers still would’ve made their run to the Stanley Cup Final, but let’s be positive and say Perry’s presence lands the Game 7 coinflip in Edmonton’s favour. At age 20, Corey Perry is a Stanley Cup champion.
The 2006 draft
Despite the trade request from Pronger still happening, the Stanley Cup Champion Oilers would’ve made some picks at the 2006 Draft. Jeff Petry was taken 45th overall, a selection I still think happens. Otherwise, Theo Peckham at 75th overall doesn’t offer many alternate selections.
In real life, Pronger was dealt to the Ducks for Joffrey Lupul, Ladislav Smid, a 2007 first, and 2008 second, and a conditional 2008 first. However, these Oilers could already have Smid, so it’s possible they could’ve got yet another pick from the Ducks in exchange for Pronger. Brian Burke stated that his untouchables in the Pronger deal were Getzlaf and Perry, but Perry’s an Oiler, so that list is just one player.
The loss of players to UFA still happens. Michael Peca, Sergei Samsonov, and Georges Laraque all walk, but let’s assume Lowe manages to keep Spacek in the wake of losing Pronger. A defensive core of Spacek, Jason Smith, Steve Staios, Matt Greene, and Ladislav Smid certainly isn’t sexy, but it’s much better than the actual 2006–07 Oilers defence.
The 2006–07 season
I’d imagine the Oilers still experience a Cup hangover. Pronger is an irreplaceable piece, and although the team tries their hardest, they fail to make the playoffs. However, there is one big inflection point. Ryan Smyth, fresh off a Stanley Cup, is able to negotiate with Lowe on an extension to keep him in Oil Country.
As far as Perry goes, he takes his real life sophomore jump to 44 points, and his easily the most exciting player on the roster not named Hemsky. Edmonton isn’t going back to the final, but they’re not a smoking crater like they became in real life.
The 2007 draft
Edmonton would have two firsts to draft with again. In actuality, they were bad enough to fall to sixth and take Sam Gagner, but I don’t think the alternate Oilers would’ve been that bad. I’d place them around 14–15th overall. With Kevin Shattenkirk being taken at 14th, let’s say fortune smiles on the Oilers, landing them an eventual top pairing defenceman just a year after losing their star. The pick they got from Anaheim turns out to be 21st, and although Edmonton took Riley Nash there, they could have taken Max Pacioretty, who was selected 22nd.
That offseason, the real Oilers also traded Jason Smith and Joffrey Lupul to Philadelphia for Joni Pitkanen, Geoff Sanderson, and Philly’s third in 2009. I’m unsure if these alternate Oilers would have done this, considering the state of the blueline sans-Pronger. If they make the deal, I think the Oilers still sign Sheldon Souray in the offseason.
The 2007–08 season
The alternate Oilers are a damn sight better than the real 2007–08 team. Perry had 29 goals and 54 points in 70 games, he’s surrounded by a still-there Smyth, Hemsky Horcoff, Jarret Stoll, and a debuting Andrew Cogliano. With a steadier defence of Souray, Staios, Pitkanen, Smid, and Tom Gilbert, and backstopped by a return-to-form Roloson year, these Oilers return to the playoffs as an eight seed. They don’t win a series, but they’re a playoff team again.
The 2008 draft
Another major change happens here. That conditional 2008 first from the Pronger trade was on the condition that Anaheim would reach the Stanley Cup Final in the next three seasons. Without Perry though, do they? It’s very possible.
That Ducks core had Scott Niedermayer, Ryan Getzlaf, Pronger, Teemu Selanne, and Dustin Penner. It’s entirely plausible they still beat Detroit to make the final. Let’s say for argument’s sake that Anaheim still makes it, and triggers the clause. That would leave the Oilers with Anaheim’s 2008 first, Edmonton’s own 2008 first, Anaheim’s 2008 second, and most importantly, Edmonton’s own 2008 second and third.
In real life, the Oilers didn’t have those last two picks because of the offer sheet for Dustin Penner, the revenge offer from Lowe against Burke for Pronger forcing his way to Orange County. Unfortunatley in this alternate history we lose the possibility of any barn fights between Lowe and Burke, but Edmonton has five picks in the top 90, which would be a massive upgrade over their real life situation.
With these picks, the Oilers still would’ve gotten Jordan Eberle at 22nd, considering that’s where Anaheim’s pick fell. Their own pick would’ve landed somewhere similar, which would’ve allowed them to take anyone like Luca Sbisa at 19th or Michael Del Zotto at 20th. Maybe Edmonton could’ve lucked out at 15th and taken Erik Karlsson. Regardless, these five picks would have allowed the Oilers to seriously refill the cupboards of a team that was getting a bit long in the tooth, especially on defence.
The 2008–09 season
Perry’s 32 goals and 77 points and Hemsky’s 20 goals and 71 points from reality yet again drive the Oilers to a bubble playoff spot. Smyth and Horcoff are still in support, Cogliano is still developing. The defence is largely unchanged, as is the goaltending.
However, another playoff birth means no Magnus Paajarvi in the draft, and the larger outlook almost guarantees the 2010s will be different. No cratering to first overall for Taylor Hall in 2010, which also means no Nugent-Hopkins or Yakupov, and most importantly, no Draisaitl in 2014 nor McDavid in 2015. The Oilers would have been demonstrably better from 2006 to 2010 and would’ve had another banner, but is that worth trading the McDavid/Draisaitl era for?
It’s a very interesting hypothetical. Comrie for Perry would have unquestionably made the Oilers better in the short-term, but would have cost them generationally in the long-term. Maybe it’s for the best Lowe demanded Comrie pay his bonus and the deal blew up. You never know quite how a choice like that will affect your team five, ten, even 20 years down the line.
