Welcome back! This will be a very quick read. In light of a rather historic turn around we thought we’d answer one simple question. Which team will be taking home the Stanley Cup in a winner takes all Game 7: the Edmonton Oilers or the Florida Panthers?
Who wins tonight and why?
Faiz: It has to be the Edmonton Oilers, right? All the momentum is on their side, they seemed to have figured out Sergei Bobrovsky and the Florida Panthers’ systems. Even though they were outshot 19–10 in the last two periods of last game, it didn’t seem like there was too many threatening chances. The only things in Florida’s favour is home ice and the fact that Bob has shown up to play in final games of series this year (0.969, 0.957, and 0.958 SV%). However, those were all elimination games for the other team, not Florida. This is really a tight call, and no one should be surprised if either team wins. But the story for Edmonton winning is just so much better at this point than Florida, and so it is a question of what mood the hockey gods are in. I expect the fact that Connor McDavid was pointless last game to mean that he goes supernova this one, which should make all the difference.
Darnell: Edmonton Oilers. There are several reasons why they will win.
First is the momentum generated by Edmonton, in the last 10 periods, the Oilers have outscored Florida by a margin of 19–5. Part of the reason for this is Edmontons adjustment to score off the rush, which Bobrovsky has notably struggled with, roughly 60-70% of Edmonton’s goals have been scored this way.
Second is the play of the stars. Yes Game 5 was the McDavid game, and Game 6 was the awakening of Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, but hats tips have to be to Stuart Skinner. His play in elimination games is one reason as to how Edmonton can counter Bobrovsky’s Game 7 heroics. Draisaitl was more noticeable last night, providing indication that he is about to have a monster Game 7, building on his three points to date in the series.
Third, the depth. Adam Henrique, Mattias Janmark, and Connor Brown have provided Edmonton with timely secondary scoring that is required to win championships. There dominance on the penalty kill has been unrivalled and provides reasoning why Coach Kris Knoblauch has the courage to challenge a close offside call, having faith in the PK that has has killed 44/45 chances against.
Even if Florida does manage to win on Monday, this series and playoffs have captivated a whole city and fanbase into believing this team can do anything and there is no reason to hang their heads even in defeat.
Sean: As much as the vibes and energy surrounding the team these last three games have me feeling hopeful, I still have to follow probability and give the Game 7 victory to the Panthers. My original prediction was Panthers in six for a variety of reasons, but even as the Oilers have battled back and completely shut the Panthers down in games four through six, the likelihood of a reverse sweep in general, nevermind in the Stanley Cup Final, is almost zero chance of happening. I may be in a frame of mind of “they can’t keep getting away with this.”
In NHL history, only two teams have forced a Game 7 after going down 3–0 in the Cup Final: the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs and the 1945 Detroit Red Wings. Only the Maple Leafs won Game 7. One time in NHL history has this ever been accomplished. And expanding to the rest of the playoffs, only four times total has a reverse sweep happened out of nine total attempts. History and probability are not leaning in the Oilers’ favour in this attempt.
Regardless of series outcome, the hype surrounding this Stanley Cup Final that was nearly a complete dud has been well worth it. It was amazing to see the Oilers band together and battle how they have to drag this series back and forth across the continent. And finally, we are starting to see the potential of this roster reached. From top to bottom, everyone is filling their role perfectly. The Panthers’ attack has been completely stifled for the last few games. The offence is plentiful and receiving tons of contributions throughout the roster. And Skinner is making big saves in big moments to help preserve leads and give the team confidence.
Despite this, ultimately history does not lean in Edmonton’s favour for the outcome of a win, and eventually, the Panthers are going to re-find their game just enough to win the Cup.
Czechboy: So I went to Wikipedia and found all the Game 7 Stanley Cup Finals. The home team is nine wins and three losses. I’d also like to point out this has never happened with four rounds of hockey. The 1942 Leafs Game 7 turn around was their eighth win after two rounds of play. We have to win 16 games and four rounds. That reverse sweep has never happened. So edge Florida using a historical model.
I also think Florida is an excellent team and beating them four in a row will be very difficult. Paul Maurice is an excellent coach. Aleksander Barkov is a legit stud. Having said that, my “eye test” shows the Oilers being very dominant for most of the last three games. Bobrovsky is now sub .890 SV% in the finals (Skinner is almost .910 SV%). McDavid has found a new gear and is in Gretzky territory. Some of our depth guys have been amazing (Janmark, Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway, Ryan McLeod, Connor Brown, and Warren Foegele). Drai came alive in Game 6 and seems to be getting healthier. Our D is not leaking chances and Florida’s D definitely is. I think we know to shoot blocker side on Bobrovsky now too . Our PK is historic. It ‘”feels” like the comeback is imminent based on the last week or so.
Game 7 is like a shootout. Anything can happen. One bad call. One bad bounce. One puck in the stands for a PP at the wrong time. It’s 50-50. Some Florida guys not having a big impact either (Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhagie, now Bobrovsky and Sam Reinhart have all been very quiet). Three intangibles for us going into Monday night: Cody Ceci is great in Game 7s, McDavid pointless in Game 6, and Stu is 10-0 (.920) in Games 4 to 7 this playoffs. My heart says Edmonton and my brain says Florida.
Greg: At the start of the playoffs I picked the Panthers. At the start of the series I picked the Panthers in seven. Now I’m picking the Oilers. They’ve shown the will and skill becoming of a champion, and have all the momentum. They have been the better team through the first six games of the series. Even if the Oilers fall behind early in Game 7, they will never give up.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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