Welcome back! Every writer picked the Dallas Stars to win last time. We won in six and are in the Cup Final. Feels almost like found money. Let’s get right to it!
We all picked Dallas to win and we won in six. What were the keys to victory against Dallas?
Greg: The penalty kill continued to be incredible, but I’d like to mention more intangible aspects of the team. Resilience was key, as was commitment to team identity. The Edmonton Oilers may not have boasted the scoring depth of the Stars, but the Oilers depth brought focus and intensity to the roles required of them.
Erling: The biggest key to success for the Oilers in the series against Dallas was Stuart Skinner. Those of us who were concerned about his consistency before the start of this series were not wrong; he had a solid year but by no means outstanding. Instead of being shaky though, he was excellent, at times the best he has ever been, especially in games 4,5, and 6. You probably couldn’t say he stole the series but he could definitely be charged with aiding and abetting.
Faiz: Goaltending and PK. Outside of Game 5, they never brought a full game effort (as shown by the multiple long stretches without a shot), and if it wasn’t for Skinner and the PK then the series could have gone in the complete opposite direction.
Czechboy: I’m going to go with a new theory. We are exhausting to play against. I can’t quite identify what about us makes us exhausting but both Dallas and Vancouver looked out of gas by Game 5. I think Kris Knoblauch has done a masterful job of icing very unpleasant lineups to play against. Both those teams looked like they ran out of answers by the end. Knoblauch deserves credit for all his roster moves as he hasn’t made many poor ones. While they don’t score much, guys like Mattias Janmark, Ryan McLeod, Dylan Holloway, Warren Foegele, and Connor Brown (who was great against Dallas) are very fast and noticeable out there.
Sean: The special teams was the biggest difference maker. Dallas and Edmonton were about even at 5v5 play. A corsi for percentage of 51.5% and expected goals percentage of 50.05% with actual goal differential being 11 goals for and 12 goals against. All from Edmonton’s perspective, as per Natural Stat Trick. The Oilers had four power play goals and one shorthanded goal to the Stars’ zero. Edmonton’s penalty kill did not allow a single goal all series. That is a major momentum killer for the opposing team to not be able to create anything on the powerplay. And in Game 6, Edmonton’s two power play goals in the first period were all they needed.
Can we beat Florida? What is your prediction on how the Finals go? 1993 was the last Canadian Cup winner. Can the Oil do it?
Erling: Anything is possible in hockey, and the Oilers winning the Stanley Cup doesn’t seem like a long shot at all. If I was an oddsmaker I would still give a slight edge to Florida but I would not be surprised to see Edmonton win. If they can beat Dallas they can beat anyone, and most importantly the players themselves don’t just believe it can be done now, they know it is possible. So far as a prediction goes, my heart and my brain are having an all-out, 12 round, no-holds-barred, slug fest and I might not survive it. I’ll say Florida in seven games but I would love to see the Oilers bring the cup back to Canada.
Greg: Yes, the Oilers can beat the Panthers. With McDavid and Draisaitl at the peak of their powers the Oilers have a shot to win any game, but with the strength of the team beyond them they can win any series. That being said the Panthers are a formidable foe, and were my choice to win the Cup before the playoffs began. I expect a long, close series, perhaps one of the best Cup final in recent years.
Czechboy: I think Final is different. They are more like a Game 7 game or a shootout. Anything can happen and seeding/regular season is irrelevant. Both teams have gone through a lot to get here. Both teams have (and will get more) injuries to deal with. Our last two rounds saw some significant injuries (Thatcher Demko, Brock Boesser, or Chris Tanev) benefit us. Florida’s road trips are about to double in length too. From a kilometres travelled perspective, Oilers are used to these long trips (L.A. and Dallas). So I do think we can win this and will pick us in seven. I think Florida is the stronger paper roster. I actually think Florida is amazing and love their team. I don’t expect an even series and we may even get blown out a few times but I think we pull it out in the end.
Faiz: Yes, like Draisaitl said before Game 5, this team’s best can beat any team’s best. Florida will be the toughest test, almost literally. But the one thing I have always said about these Oilers is that playing them physical and agitating them is the worst strategy. These Oilers do have players with a mean streak (Darnell Nurse, Evander Kane, Leon Draisaitl, Vincent Desharnais, Corey Perry) and they will match that energy. I honestly think one of the reasons the Oilers had those long stretches against Dallas was that the physicality wasn’t there, and so they weren’t as engaged at times. It’s so hard to predict this series though (as most Cup Final should be I guess). My heart says Oilers in five, my brain says Florida in six.
Sean: Edmonton has shown through the playoffs they can beat the higher seed and they can beat teams with strengths that could have caused them major problems. So it is definitely possible for Edmonton to win this round. They have shown the resilience and adaptability to battle back and adjust when changes are needed. The lengthy break allowing players to heal up is also a huge bonus for this series. But, I do see it as a major challenge to beat Florida and ultimately see the Panthers winning in six.
What concerns you the most about the Oilers heading into the Final?
Sean: Physicality. The Panthers have 739 hits to Edmonton’s 563. In terms of a rate stat, Florida delivers 42.5 hits/60 to Edmonton’s 30.5. Everyone talks about playoff hockey and the physicality it brings. Florida has it. And that style of play the Panthers utilize is a major problem for a team like the Oilers that are already dealing with injuries to key players through the playoffs. Florida has no qualms with playing on the edge and will toe the line of what’s clean and dirty, and it will be a challenge for Edmonton to adapt to this playstyle as it is like nothing they have faced thus far.
Erling: Before the Dallas series, I felt that Skinner was more of a question mark than the lack of depth, or at least a more dangerous question mark, considering he has to stand alone in net and if he goes to pieces it’s all over. Now I think that the lack of depth is more of a problem. They held their own against Dallas, and I wouldn’t say Florida is deeper than Dallas so they can do the same against Florida. The problem is that Florida’s first two lines are better than Dallas’ and that Florida is a tougher, stronger, younger team so the last three Edmonton lines will have their work cut out for them.
Greg: While the Stars were hard-nosed they did not seem interested in extracurricular skirmishes between the whistles. The Panthers will not be so courteous. My biggest concern is that the Oilers might suffer injuries or succumb to a loss of focus. The Oilers are tough enough to hold their own in these probable skirmishes, but a balance must be struck between standing ground and becoming unhinged. The Oilers last playoff series loss, at the hands of the Vegas Golden Knights, had a similar feeling, the Oilers ultimately losing their cool a bit more than the Knights did.
Faiz: Consistency—which team/players are going to show up to which game? If Skinner can play like he has since his benching, I am a lot less worried. If Nurse can play like he has the last two games after being the centre of attention for his bad play, I am a lot less worried. One of the biggest concerns though is the depth scoring. I think the depth has played really well, and Adam Henrique coming back has allowed for four very solid lines, but the goal scoring from everyone outside of McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, and Hyman isn’t quite there. But if the depth at least keeps playing good defensive hockey, then I am not as concerned about the scoring.
Czechboy: I know this is a hockey blog but I want to talk about dragons! The Oilers have TWO three-headed dragons. The one that scares me is the Nurse-Ceci-Skinner dragon. That dragon can take over a series and have us done in four games. All three are good players but all three are miscast. Skinner is not in the same area code as Bobrovsky in 2024. That’s not his fault, he may get there one day. Ceci is a tremendous value contract but is miscast. Nurse is a great Dman and could easily be in a top-four d core of a Cup winner but his contract and play are not always fun. If we lose, expect to read a lot about this three-headed dragon!
What excites you the most about the OIlers heading into the Final?
Faiz: Last time they were in the Final, I was in junior high. The time before that I wasn’t even born. It’s shown me just how rare making the Final actually is, and so I am so excited about being back because you just never know when you’ll get this chance. I am lucky enough to be able to go to a game in person and I cannot wait to be able to soak it all in. The city is electric enough during the playoffs, I can’t imagine how much it is going to pop off during the Final. Everyone I know (and I mean EVERYONE) in Edmonton is stoked beyond belief, regardless of how much they like hockey. It’s just a special time. Plus, seeing McDavid and Draisaitl on the game’s biggest stage will certainly be a sight to see.
Erling: Naturally, what’s most exciting is the possibility of the Oilers winning the Stanley Cup, and the raw excitement of the Stanley Cup Final in general. What is most exciting and encouraging about the Oilers is the special teams. I’m not even sure what to say about the penalty kill, Dallas not scoring a single PP goal in a six-game playoff series is truly mind-blowing. The power play is similarly outstanding and is a huge advantage the Oilers can exercise over the Panthers. Florida is likely to take more penalties than Dallas—who actually did an incredible job of staying out of the sin bin—so even though the Oilers should by no means be relying on the PP, they are likely to see a lot of goals come from it.
Greg: The chance to play for eternal glory should be relished and appreciated by all those across Oil Country. Some teams have gone a lifetime without earning such an opportunity. Outside of that, I am excited about the vindication available to key figures on the Oilers. Around the league the strides the Oilers have taken over the past few seasons have been misrepresented, if not ignored altogether. Certain individuals have faced more criticism than deserved, from Skinner and Nurse, even to GM Ken Holland. Of course, McDavid and Draisaitl are among the only players in the league who could have a lack of a championship negatively impact their legacies. As two of the greatest players and playoff performers of all time, the chance to silence the doubters in this respect is top of mind.
Sean: I’m just looking forward to the experience of watching my team play for the Stanley Cup. It has been nearly two decades since I last watched this type of hockey, since I was a kid. The excitement, intensity, and unhealthy amounts of stress for this series are all going to be amazing to be a part of. Although I can’t be there in person, even just seeing the arena atmosphere on TV is incredible.
Czechboy: Did I mentions dragon on a hockey site? Good, because we have another three-headed dragon. This one morphed. It was originally a two-headed dragon with McDrai. Now it’s morphed into a three-headed dragon of Bouchard-McDavid-Draisaitl. This dragon is historical. This dragon can win a seven-game series. Bouch is criminally underrated. What he is doing is historic and he doesn’t seem to be slowing down. McD and Drai are also setting records and on insanely good paces. If we win, expect to hear a lot about these three dragons. I do think they can wear a team down over seven games with the PP and 5v5 play.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
