Even though the Edmonton Oilers have done well to make the Western Conference Final, the hunger for more runs hot. Much of the pressure comes from perceived timelines, the players’ prime years and current contracts of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl perhaps most of all. A good deal of pressure is innate to competition as well. Either way, the pressure is palpable, as each loss brings with it a new wave of panic, dismay, and disbelief.
Recently, with the Oilers dropping back-to-back games to the Dallas Stars, tempers are flaring on a number of issues. Thanks to some tough moments of late, including a demoralizing penalty late in Game 3, the play of Darnell Nurse has come under more questioning than usual. Let’s take a look at how warranted these criticisms are, and what their repercussions might be.
History of criticism
Ever since signing his eight-year extension at a $9.25M cap hit, Darnell Nurse has drawn the eyes and the ire of many corners of Oil Country. Nurse signed this deal during what might have been the best season of his career after being bridged twice, at the time unquestionably the Oilers top option on the blueline and with the team struggling to find its way as a perennial contender, it was a perfect storm for an overpayment by the Oilers.
Needless to say, Nurse is not as effective as many of the NHL’s other $9+ M defencemen. Oilers fans are getting a good look at a player of that calibre in Evan Bouchard. With that being said, Nurse is still a good enough player to be part of a championship calibre top four. Nurse might not be an ideal top option on the power play or the penalty kill, but can be effective on the second unit of both. Nurse can play a lot of minutes against high level opponents at even strength. Ideally, Nurse should be partnered with a player who can help defend.
Nurse has been deployed alongside Cody Ceci for most of the past few seasons. Ceci is maligned in his own right, even predating his time as an Oiler. Until last season’s trade deadline, the two served as the Oilers top pairing. The results were not glowing, and Ceci was clearly out of his depth as a top pair defender. Despite this, from a twisted angle one might be able to argue Ceci provided more value than expected based on his $3.25M cap hit as a UFA signing. A big, right shot, with experience as a top-four defender, Ceci had been the Oilers best option on the right side for some time.
As Bouchard emerged, Ceci was quickly unseated from this perch, a necessary step to the Oilers Stanley Cup hopes. Yet, as this season has progressed the fall has gotten steeper. Now Vincent Desharnais has started to challenge Ceci for a role outright, if not already passed him by. In tow, Desharnais has started to encroach on Ceci’s even strength minutes as Nurse’s partner. In the playoffs, when rhetorical stakes are highest, the Oilers turned to Desharnais as Nurse partner.
The present usage
Desharnais is a late bloomer, defying the odds to become an NHL regular in his mid 20s. Upon joining the team in January 2023, Desharnais quickly became the Oilers top penalty killer on right defence, a title that still belongs to him. While Desharnais is still prone to being exploited by high end talent, gaining NHL experience has seen him improve his poise and decision making with and without the puck. Despite his age, it is reasonable to think that Desharnais’ best hockey is still in front of him.
Still, this does not mean that Desharnais is ready for the top-four role that Oilers Coach Kris Knoblauch has been weaving him in and out of this season. While Desharnais has provided steady results throughout the season, whether on the second or third pairing, Game 3 of the Western Conference final might have been a speed bump. In particular the duo was scored on twice while Desharnais seemed lost in coverage. Despite the superior results of Nurse-Desharnais, the Oilers were compelled to go back to Nurse-Ceci. Circumstantially, Ceci was chosen as the best option (behind Bouchard) even though the Oilers clearly have an interest in moving past them as a pairing.
| Rank | Line | Minutes | Games | xGoals For Per 60 Minutes | xGoals Against Per 60 Minutes | xGoals % |
| 1 | Ekholm-Bouchard | 231.8 | 14 | 3.16 | 1.81 | 63.50% |
| 2 | Nurse-Desharnais | 76.3 | 10 | 3.3 | 2.91 | 53.20% |
| 3 | Kulak-Bouchard | 20.8 | 12 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 50% |
| 4 | Kulak-Desharnais | 100.5 | 11 | 2.03 | 2.15 | 48.60% |
| 5 | Nurse-Ceci | 138.6 | 13 | 1.91 | 3.64 | 34.40% |
| 6 | Kulak-Ceci | 81.1 | 10 | 1.55 | 3.11 | 33.30% |
Though Nurse has been on for the most goals, sporting the Oilers worst plus-minus of the playoffs, there has been a clear trend of Ceci dragging down his defence partners. Nurse has performed quite well alongside the sophomore Desharnais. Over the course of a regular season these expected metrics are useful, but in the immediacy of the playoffs their inherently small sample sizes are less of a factor. However each person sees the balance of how relevant a stat plus-minus is, when every goal might decide the fate of the season it becomes more relevant.
There is reason to have hope for Desharnais being a strong partner for Nurse, Brett Kulak, or perhaps Philip Broberg in the future, in the long term, something that does not matter much across Oilers Country right now. The pressure to take advantage of this season, of this opportunity, is rightly the centrepiece of all thoughts.
Time to make some changes?
With that, Knoblauch has been bold in his decision making lately. With Adam Henrique returning to the lineup for Game 3, it was Ryan McLeod who was scratched and replaced. From this basis, it might be presumed that Knoblauch is ready to make changes to the blueline as well. While the Oilers should investigate scratching one of their regular defencemen, it should not be Nurse. Instead, it should be Ceci on the way out.
McLeod and Ceci are both tertiary contributors, role players for the Oilers. McLeod has far less tenure, perhaps an easier scratch than a veteran like Ceci. The Oilers continue to value chemistry and consistency across their defence pairings, which does make lineup changes less likely. A reset might not be the worst for either, at the end of the day. There is certainly a chance McLeod makes his way back into the lineup, and there might be a chance for Ceci to do so after a hypothetical scratch.
In the meantime, Troy Stecher sits in the pressbox, a right shot who could play the same role as Ceci. Nurse-Desharnais has shown promise, but the Oilers are searching for other options. Stecher and Nurse shared some time together in the regular season, but not much. Stecher is experienced, and is good defensively. Though Stecher does not have the stature of Desharnais or Ceci, he does play well defensively. As Nurse is big and strong enough to handle the dirty work, he does not mind the lack of size from Stecher. In fact, Stecher’s contributions as a defender, either in-zone or off the rush, is his greatest strength as well Nurse’s biggest need.
Stecher has been overlooked most of his career, though has a habit of finding his way into the regular lineup of a playoff team every season. His lack of size might be the only hurdle keeping him for a more stable spot, but he is a worthwhile option, especially in the present moment for the Oilers.
Another option might be to try Kulak and Nurse together, with one playing their weak side. This is far less likely, as the Oilers clearly value handedness and have not tried either Kulak or Nurse on the right this season. Philip Broberg has continued to improve, but has yet to play under Knoblauch. There is reason to think that Broberg is ready, and that Desharnais is an ideal partner, but the stakes are very high. In some ways, it might not be fair to throw Broberg into this spot purely out of preference. Stecher did not play much this season, but has done so at least.
Nurse has had some tough looks, no doubt some mistakes, but is still an essential part of this lineup. If the Oilers do explore a change to their blueline, it is Ceci who should be replaced. Combined with Stecher’s playoff experience and handedness, his being inserted into the lineup over Ceci makes a lot more sense than Broberg’s.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
Nurse should have been traded or released BEFORE that useless GM gave away that money and Ken Holland hailed for theft for signing that contract!!!
Could have bought better and got away from being stuck with a selectively lazy player!