All you Edmonton fanatics breathe a sigh of relief, the Edmonton Oilers are playing in the 2024 Stanley Cup Final. A team that started the year 2–9–1 has turned the bus right around and is contending for the greatest and hardest to win trophy in the world of sports. The drama of this season has been tremendous, from a terrible start, to a coach being fired, to the longest winning streak in any Canadian team’s history, to an Art Ross trophy race.
Despite all that hubbub the playoffs have held up in action. A great start against L.A. followed by the starting goalie being pulled in a seven-game series with a national rival right into a series against a Stanley cup favourite while being considered a heavy underdog. The Oilers have come out the other side looking less like an underdog and more like a Dobermann with the muscles of a Pitbull and the attitude of a Chihuahua. The Oilers have won series’ in five, six, and seven games now, can they hit for the cycle and sweep the Florida Panthers?
Does the lineup need changes?
If they have any hope of doing so they need to go into the series with the best possible lineup. This has been a point of heavy contention amongst Edmonton fans and clearly a point of consternation with Kris Knoblauch, who has sent more unique lines onto the ice than there are Vancouver fans currently planning a riot.
The only partially persistent line this year has been Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid, and Zach Hyman. This is by no means a surprise as they are and have been one of the most dominant lines in the NHL this season. After the first line though nothing has been constant.
The last three lines for the recent past have been Ryan McLeod-Leon Draisaitl-Corey Perry, Dylan Holloway-Adam Henrique-Evander Kane, and Mattias Janmark-Derek Ryan-Connor Brown, with the third line seeing substitutions of Sam Carrick and Warren Foegele. With the success that the Oilers have had in the past three games with this lineup I would be surprised if we saw this change for the start of the next round but here are some possibilities.
A statistics approach
I’ll start by showing how the current lineup plays. It is very difficult to argue statistically for any other lineup than what was played in the last three games. Keep in mind that some of these lines have played together for only a short amount of time and so their numbers would be subject to change over a longer period of time together.
The Hyman-Draisaitl-McDavid line that sees the ice after a successful penalty kill is the best that Edmonton can turnout, although we have never seen Nugent-Hopkins swapped for Hyman. So far as Corsi among all the lines Edmonton has played in the playoffs goes, the first line ranks fifth, the second line ranks sixth, the third line ranks 11th and the fourth line 16th.
In terms of average Corsi, the best possible lineup that we have data for is this:
| Hyman | Draisaitl | McDavid |
| Holloway | Kane | Nugent-Hopkins |
| Foegele | McLeod | Perry |
| Janmark | Carrick | Brown |
This is good enough for a 61.6% average Corsi. This is miles ahead of the 50.8% average Corsi of the current lineup. I have a hard time believing that Knoblauch doesn’t know this and has decided otherwise but it honestly could be worth a shot. Corsi is considered a good proxy for possession time, a stat that is not currently recorded, so even though these lines may seem shallow, the stats intimate that they would work pretty well.
So far as actual goal% goes though, the current lineup is by far the best. This is a dangerous stat to rely on though, as it may be propped up by the excellent play of Stuart Skinner in the past three games, whereas Corsi relies more heavily on the players themselves.
An eye test approach
One thing we can be essentially sure about is that when McDavid steps on the ice, Aleksander Barkov will follow within seconds. The two first lines will share the ice all series long.
This leaves Draisaitl’s line to deal with the Matthew Tkachuk line, which is one of the biggest problems that the Oilers will face this series. As much as the Oilers fans hate Tkachuk, he and his line are an offensive threat. Draisaitl is defensively sound and the speedy McLeod plays on the currently flawless first penalty kill so he is likely the best option, but Perry has failed to impress in the playoffs thus far. As much as the deadline pickup made sense at the time, he is showing his age in his slow pace and you won’t hear his name very often in an Oilers broadcast. On the other hand Brown has shown promise, and more speed than I suspected he was capable of.
Draisaitl with two speedy wingers could be a dangerous combo and could prove effective against the Tkachuk line. I have arrived at the belief that speed is the single most useful trait that a hockey player can have. At the rate that the puck changes hands, quick turnarounds can surprise the defending team and capitalize on even small mistakes. In that way, Brown on the second line could help hem the Tkachuk line in their own zone where they are no threat.
Something else that can be expected form this series is rough stuff, in the corners and after the whistle. Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk are known disturbers of the peace and they will make their presence felt. For this reason I would suggest bringing Carrick back into the lineup to help with some of the fighting. No one plays with more heart than Derek Ryan but he is small in stature and is not known for mixing it up. The stats also favour Carrick over Ryan on the fourth line so even if Kris changes nothing else, he should change that. Carrick doesn’t need to play second line minutes but when you need him, you’re happy to have him.
Given the success of the current lineup, I would not expect any serious lineup changes. There is probably something to be said for giving a line time to develop chemistry, but the stats do suggest that leaving the goal scoring to a high powered first line and letting the last three lines deal with the in-between time could be a viable option. We’ll have to wait till Saturday to see which direction Knoblauch takes it.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
