After back-to-back wins in the Western Conference Final the mood across Oil Country has swung in a positive direction. While some fault lines have been tempered or weathered, one storyline holds a great deal of long term significance for the Edmonton Oilers. Even in the present, the play of Philip Broberg gives the Oilers something of an x-factor in whatever games their playoff future holds. Let’s take a look at Broberg’s emergence and what it means for the Oilers.
Draft days
Selected eighth overall in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft, great expectations have preceded Broberg for many years. From the start of his draft season Broberg was expected to be an early first-round pick, his raw tools making him an obvious standout. To this day, Broberg’s talents here are coming into their own, but his size and mobility are a fantastic starting point for a defenceman. Able to activate up ice, or skate the puck out of trouble, Broberg is a conduit to team offence more than he is a dynamic scorer in his own right. He has continued to add strength and balance, but Broberg’s game always heavily featured his skating.
The top 10 draft pick was earned, as the Oilers toiled during the 2018–19 season. The Connor McDavid era seemed derailed, but with any luck fans hoped the Oilers might hit a home run with their high pick, vaulting them to a new ceiling. At some point, these hopes took hold, and expectations for Broberg becoming an impact player quickly were festering. Broberg seemed to stall in his first and second post-draft seasons, equaling his draft year stat line in Sweden’s professional ranks. Some might have already felt disappointed at this point, but Broberg was said to be steadily improving by those who watched more closely.
Stuck in between
At this point, the Oilers brought Broberg to North America. Since then, Broberg has split time between the AHL and the NHL in each of those three seasons. In retrospect this might not have been ideal, as Broberg has a career high of 49 AHL games in a season, set this year. His early exposure to the NHL showed some good signs, but ultimately Broberg did not seem ready.
In his first NHL season he took a big hit from Milan Lucic, perhaps an apt illustration that Broberg had not yet grown into his pro body. In his second NHL season, 2022–23, Broberg set his career high for NHL appearances, most of which he was on a sheltered third pairing with Evan Bouchard. Broberg had definitely improved, but was not yet ready to be part of the Oilers top six, as he was sent down as the season progressed. This season, amidst the Oilers horrid start, Broberg was among the first demoted from the starting lineup.
With Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse, and Brett Kulak ahead of him on the left side depth chart, and healthy, there did not seem to be a path for Broberg to reach regular lineup status. Just as he seemed to have stalled in Sweden, Broberg seemed stuck, some across the league calling him a draft bust, or wondering if he even held value as a trade asset anymore.
All the while, Broberg kept improving in the AHL. His skating is as dynamic and confident as ever, his body strong and balanced, his poise and decision making sharper. At the AHL level he has become a dynamo, controlling the ice surface with his range. There has been a clear progression from top four in his rookie AHL season, to a top pair defender in his sophomore year, to a complete force in year 3.
From the moment Kris Knoblauch was hired as Oilers head coach, the team started to show signs of turning their season around. In particular, the defence seemed more cohesive, more decisive in coverage, or at least getting better luck. A big credit was given to the teams willingness to let their defencemen use their legs, activating up ice, trying to make plays and take chances when appropriate.
Unfortunately, Broberg had already been demoted to the AHL. These changes would seem to play to his strengths a lot. Without a regular spot in the NHL lineup, Broberg had often been thrown into less than ideal circumstances, playing on his weak side or as a seventh defenceman. At times, Broberg did not have a regular partner, or was thrown into high leverage situations, as he was last playoffs against the Vegas Golden Knights when Darnell Nurse was suspended.
Present day contribution
Between his continued improvement, and being inserted into the Oilers lineup under more ideal circumstances, it might not be a surprise to see Broberg providing his best results yet. Cody Ceci might be the Oilers best option for a regular third pairing role for Broberg, a veteran who can provide support in a number of areas. Broberg playing on his strong side is crucial. At some point he might be ready to assume a less well rounded partner, perhaps being the foremost puck mover on a pairing with Vincent Desharnais.
At any rate, the Oilers have finally found a way to put Broberg in a chance to succeed, and through two games in the Western Conference Final the results have been fantastic. Broberg has looked capable and confident, blocking shots, being physical and decisive in his own end, attacking up the ice, and even adding a goal on a sweet half-slap shot.
The velocity and accuracy is very encouraging, a notable offensive tool that Broberg has added to his arsenal. While this is not quite the legendary Bouch Bomb, combined with Broberg’s skating it gives him a stable foundation to work with. Broberg’s passing game has some upside, but these tools take a lot of pressure off of this aspect of his game.
Physically and mentally, Broberg has arrived as a legitimate NHLer. Broberg has been noticeably strong in his third pairing role. He is still getting limited minutes, and is not receiving regular penalty kill time, but he has jumped onto the big stage and held his own. Especially given the mysterious Troy Stecher injury, Broberg showing this ability is huge for the Oilers depth. At some point he might come out of the lineup, but his unexpected arrival offers the Oilers a ray of optimism, a wildcard reinforcement to a team that has come together defensively since his last NHL appearance.
Future with Edmonton
Although Oil Country is firmly wed on the here and now, Broberg seizing the chance to prove himself does have long term ramifications. A pending RFA, the Oilers will have a decision to make, as Broberg will no longer be waiver exempt next season. For now, the Oilers seem to be content to move Brett Kulak to the right side, freeing up a spot for Broberg on the left, but will that be the case going forward?
Broberg has been on the wrong end of some prospect fatigue for fans who have been hoping for a top pairing defenseman for the better part of the last five seasons, but he is still improving. Perhaps in two seasons, as Ekholm’s contract expires, the Oilers will be less reliant on what would then be a 36-year-old veteran. By this point Broberg might well be ready to take on a bigger role, helping ease the loss of quality that will catch up to Ekholm at some point. At the very least, Broberg seems capable of being a valuable contributor to the Oilers lineup.
More optimistic appraisals might see a higher ceiling for Broberg. If his steady growth continues, Broberg might be able to challenge higher in the lineup, even pushing Ekholm and Nurse for icetime. Especially if the Oilers are able to sign Broberg to an affordable deal that goes beyond Ekholm’s current deal (with two more seasons remaining), a top four level Broberg could be a major selling point on extensions for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. There is no guarantee that Broberg can reach this level, and offering him a more substantial longer term contract is risky, but it is a path to a supremely talented blueline for McDavid and Draisaitl to work with.
On the other hand, those who don’t believe in Broberg’s prospects as a legitimate top four option can still see his recent play as a boon to the future. For the reasons stated above there is some hope for Broberg, enough that teams should be interested in trading for him. Other teams who are in rebuilding or retooling modes might take an interest, as might teams hoping to swing for a home run with a young, affordable, 6’4” defenceman with an intriguing blend of size, skill, draft pedigree, and recent performance. Fans might still begrudge that players drafted after Broberg have performed better, but he might still be used to acquire talent or offload money.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
