The Edmonton Oilers will begin their second consecutive Western Conference title defence tonight. In Game 1 of the Western Conference quarterfinal, they will play against the Anaheim Ducks.
It’s a rematch of the 2017 Western semifinal, but these two versions of the Oilers and Ducks are very different, save for a few players on Edmonton’s side. This series promises to be a high-octane offensively driven one, but there’s a few big storylines I think will define the series for both teams.
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A reverse of the 2017 matchup
When these teams last played in the 2016–17 postseason, the Anaheim Ducks were the veterans. Led by Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Kesler, and John Gibson, the Ducks used their experience to combat the speed of an Oilers team led by a young Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Anaheim ultimately won the series in seven, but Edmonton infamously had them on the ropes. The Oilers led 3–0 in Game 5 with 3:16 left before surrendering the lead and losing 4–3 in double overtime. Anaheim was able to suppress much of Edmonton’s youth and skill throughout the series. The Ducks played a more physical style than those Oilers had even encountered.
This year, Edmonton is the experienced squad. Between April 20, 2023, and April 20 2026, only the Florida Panthers have played more playoff games (66), than the Oilers (57). Coming off of two consecutive trips to the Stanley Cup Final, Edmonton is one of the most battled-tested teams in the league. This will be the eighth postseason appearances for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Edmonton seems to be the only team in the league that can “flip the switch” when the playoffs begin.
The Ducks are now the young upstarts. Their young core of forwards Cutter Gauthier (age 22), Leo Carlsson (age 21), Beckett Sennecke (age 20), and Jackson LaCombe (age 25) stand in stark contrast to some of Edmonton’s veterans. Anaheim has some older vets in key roles, like Chris Kreider and Mikael Granlund (both age 34), as well as Jacob Trouba (age 32) and captain Radko Gudas (age 35), but this is a team spearheaded by youth. Anaheim’s young talent will need to adapt on the fly against an Edmonton team that’s been here before.
Defence wins in playoffs
Although both teams can score for days, it’ll be the defensive play that will decide this series. More critically, if Anaheim can stem the tide of a McDavid-Draisaitl powered attack. The Ducks were a true run-and-gun unit this season. They led the league with 26 comeback victories and 12 comeback wins in the third period.
However, that kind of reliance on always coming back can quickly catch up with you in the playoffs. Despite all these offensive stats, Anaheim finished the season with a -15 goal differential. Edmonton, despite their various ups and downs this year, had a +13 goal differential.
Playoff hockey is a different game from the regular season. The whistle is different, and every shift means more. It’s very possible Anaheim could adjust well right away. However, it’s more likely Edmonton will be able to put the pressure on the Ducks to keep with the ramped-up pace. Defensive blunders are that much more important because goals are harder to come by. Anaheim’s defensive game this season wasn’t exactly excellent, which could lead to an Oilers edge, taking advantage of any errors the young Ducks may make.
This Oilers team also knows “how to win” as well. Their defensive play the last two postseasons has been very strong at 5v5. They know how to control the pace of a game to suit their specific style of play. Specifically on defence, Edmonton has found three solid pairs of Mattias Ekholm-Evan Bouchard, a shutdown pairing of Darnell Nurse-Connor Murphy, and a third pairing of Jake Walman-Ty Emberson that’s found some legs.
The Ducks top pair of LaCombe and Trouba have a seemingly impressive 51% xGF, but a 44.9 GF%. That’s a 6% drop between expected goals and actual goals. For a team that relies on offence, Anaheim might have a hard time keeping up if Edmonton is able to impose their style of play and wear them down at 5v5.
Can Anaheim Stop 97?
There is no stopping Connor McDavid, there’s only slowing him down. The Ducks are going to have to hope to do just that to stand a chance in this series. But McDavid isn’t alone. Even discounting the usual suspects of Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Bouchard, and Zach Hyman, the Oilers quietly have a very deep forward core going into the playoffs.
Both Matt Savoie and Vasily Podkolzin have injected a healthy amount of youth and speed into the top-six. Kasperi Kapanen and Jack Roslovic have proven to be dependable middle-six contributors. Even the newly christened “Bash Bros” line of Colton Dach, Josh Samanski, and Trent Frederic could cause physical problems for a young Ducks team. Anaheim works best when every game is a track meet. Still, the Oilers have the superior firepower to even best them in a game of that style.
Ultimately, this series will come down to how well Edmonton’s veteran style and experience can suppress Anaheim’s youth and offensive skill. The Ducks are a good team, no doubt about it. The Oilers shouldn’t look past them.
However, I believe that Edmonton has the necessary tools to counter them in all the most effective ways. The Oilers should be able to make things frustrating for a young team who hasn’t been on this stage before.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
