The Edmonton Oilers started Game 3 with gusto, ending the first period with a two-goal lead. However, they let that lead slip away due to sloppy play in the second period, culminating in a 5–3 loss to the Dallas Stars. While some of their best players were excellent, including Connor McDavid who put up his 100th playoff point of his career, their depth struggled in this one.
Kris Knoblauch has not been afraid to tinker with his lineup through the playoffs, taking Corey Perry and Ryan McLeod out of the lineup, and inserting Adam Henrique and others in as needed. This situation may require another such move. Here are three moves the Oilers should consider going into game four.
Line three needs a refresh
The Oilers have had two dynamic top lines since adding Dylan Holloway to that group, but the bottom two lines need a bit of a refresh. Let’s start with the third line of Adam Henrique centring Connor Brown and Warren Foegele. This was the Oilers’ worst line at 5v5 last game and the only line that had a below 50% shot attempts for. Despite having a goal in this one, they did look outmatched by the deep Stars team.
The challenge with facing the Stars is how deep they are, and if the Oilers are to counter them, they need to add more prowess to this line. The natural players to look to here are one of McLeod, Perry, or Sam Gagner into this line. Assuming he’s healthy, Henrique almost certainly remains at centre.
One option to explore would be keeping Henrique in the middle, moving McLeod to the left wing, and shifting Foegele to the right. Despite this meaning that Foegele would be playing his off-wing, this was a setup that the Oilers tried earlier in the season with Draisaitl in the middle of the two with great success. In six games together, McLeod had 13 points during the Oilers’ big win streak. Not only does this give the team a stronger third line, but it also gives McLeod the opportunity to be more offensive while also giving the line a more balanced look.
If Henrique cannot go in Game 4, McLeod is almost certainly slotting in at centre on the third line. If this is the case, the addition that would make the most sense would be to add Perry back into the lineup on the right wing, moving Brown out of that spot. Perry brings a ton of playoff experience to the lineup, and despite being older, playing him alongside the two younger forwards may help them be more reliable together.
No matter what way you slice it, this line absolutely needs a re-think going into game four.
Make a move on defence
It has been repeated ad nauseum how much the Oilers’ blueline has struggled over the playoffs, with a particular focus on the pairing of Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci. Whether you focus on analytical factors such as Nurse being on the ice for a whopping 18 goals against, the most of any blueliner in the playoffs by a wide margin, or simply on the eye test, looking at the number of times this pairing has struggled defensively, it’s time to make a move on the blueline.
For better or for worse, Nurse likely stays in the lineup. He’s a veteran leader on the team, and someone that this team clearly respects in the locker room. If someone is to make way, it’s likely to be Ceci.
This would be the first change that Knoblauch has made to the blueline this playoffs. All six defencemen have featured in all 15 games of the playoffs so far, but while the Oilers could push through the Los Angeles Kings and a depleted Vancouver Canucks’ side, the Stars are proving a much tougher challenge.
Troy Stetcher would have been the perfect option to jump into the lineup in this situation, but with news that he is expected to go for ankle surgery, he is likely done for the year.
The name that the Oilers should look at is Philip Broberg. The left-shot blueliner played just 12 games in the regular season for the Oilers, but had 38 points in 49 games in the AHL. His points-per-game was good for third among all U23 blueliners in the league. On top of that, his two-way game has taken major strides forward since being drafted eighth overall, and should be considered an option in Game 4.
To make this move, it would likely mean moving Vincent Desharnais up to play with Nurse and Broberg slotting in on the bottom pairing with Brett Kulak. This would insulate Broberg a little by playing him in bottom pairing minutes alongside Kulak, and would give Nurse more support by pairing him with with the big defensive defenceman from Laval.
Change the bottom line’s composition
The fourth line has actually been decent through the playoffs, as far as fourth lines go. They haven’t been expected to score much and nor have they, but they have played a steady game, moving the puck the right way up the ice and limiting scoring chances against. In the last game, the fourth line had the best shot attempts for percentage of all the Oilers’ lines, and was the only line of the four lines to not allow a single high danger shot attempt against.
The challenge is that the Oilers need more than just fine from this line. With how deep the Stars are, they cannot be relied on to just be ok. Sam Carrick and Mattias Janmark have both been decent, but Derek Ryan has struggled on this line. With just one point in 12 games and barely any time played on the penalty kill, it may be time for him to draw out of the lineup.
The Oilers have a few options in this spot. The easy one would be to push Brown down to the fourth line, where he can play a smaller role and still add value into the lineup. The more interesting move to consider would be to take both Brown and Ryan out of the lineup and insert Sam Gagner in. The 34-year-old can play centre or the wing, adding versatility for faceoffs, and has the tools needed to succeed in a smaller role. Giving the aging Ryan a game to rest may also make him better the following game.
While far from perfect, Gagner has had flashes of brilliance in his time with the Oilers and over his career. This may be a good opportunity to see if you can get that from him in a low-risk, high-reward move. Indeed, these are the moves the Oilers thrive in.
What is realistic to expect?
The big question going into Game 4 is the health of Henrique. Every forward decision that the Oilers make will be predicated on this. Regardless, there is a very good chance that McLeod finds his way back into the lineup, with Knoblauch noting more than once that this time out of the lineup was expected to be a short one.
The other big question is what the team does on the blueline. If Knoblauch feels like sending a message, scratching Nurse would absolutely do that. However, down just one game in the best-of-seven series feels premature for that type of move. More likely it is Ceci who will end up as the odd one out if the Oilers make a move to their blueline.
It would be nice to see a new face or two in the lineup for Game 4, but in the third round of the playoffs, it’s hard to justify making too many moves at all. Puck drop is at 6:30pm MST and we will know just before then how the lines will shake out for this pivotal game.
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