Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Florida Panthers
The 2023–24 Florida Panthers are not barely squeaking into the playoffs. In fact, they are one of the best teams in the league. With leaders Matthew Tkachuk and Aaron Ekblad playing some of their best hockey and Sam Reinhart setting career highs offensively, with 57 goals on the season, the Panthers pose a much bigger threat on paper than they did last season. And considering what they accomplished last season, other teams should he very concerned.
One of the biggest changes year-over-year for the Panthers is team defence. In 2022–23, Florida gave up 272 goals (3.32 per game). In 2023–24, that number dropped to 198 (2.41 goals against per game). The nearly an entire goal less per game that the team gave up was such a significant factor in their jump up the standings and easy playoff berth this season as they captured their second division title in three seasons.
The Panthers have developed an extremely well-rounded roster that checks off nearly every box on the team building worksheet. That makes them a difficult matchup for any team, especially when you factor in having one of the best energy managers in the league with Tkachuk to control the momentum on the ice.
Tampa Bay Lightning
It seems as if the Tampa Bay Lightning are starting to regress, as was inevitable. For the second consecutive season, the Lightning failed to hit 100 points, ending with 99. And for the first time since 2015–16, they failed to finish in the top three of their division.
But in the meantime, we get to enjoy seeing a collection of future Hall of Famers at their peak. Steven Stamkos hit 40 goals for the seventh time in his career. Nikita Kucherov became the fifth player in NHL history to record 100 assists in a single season. Victor Hedman had 76 points on the season, the second highest total in his career. The lone blip was Andrei Vasilevskiy, who missed the first month of the season recovering from injury, having the worst statistical season of his career.
And that leads into the biggest weakness for the Lightning, team defence and goaltending. Offensively, the team can outscore their problems, with 291 goals placing them fifth in the league. But their 268 goals against is the most of any playoff team this season. With a fairly weak defensive lineup behind Hedman and possible question marks depending on how Vasilevskiy’s game is.
Series overview
The Battle of Florida is heating up in recent years as both teams find themselves in the middle of their competitive windows at the same time. For the third time in four seasons, these two teams will face off in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. So far, Tampa Bay has taken both series’. This time, however, looks like it could be very different.
The exact thing that the Panthers have significantly improved on (team defence) counters the strength on the Lightning’s roster. And the defensive question marks for Tampa Bay are worrisome if they then struggle to continue to outscore those problems.
The Panthers have a much better roster all around than the Lightning this time around and enter the series as the favourites.
Prediction
Florida Panthers in six games.
Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Boston Bruins
The Boston Bruins are the team that just won’t go away. Lately, it seems like every season the consensus suggests that the Bruins will start to regress as the core ages out and the prospect pool or signings that are replacing them is not on the same level. And it seemed to be quite likely heading into 2023–24 that this may be the case with the retirement of Patrice Bergeron and a centre depth of Pavel Zacha, Charlie Coyle, Morgan Geekie, and John Beecher having taken the most faceoffs on the team this season.
But once again I am proven very wrong. The Bruins are right in the mix as a top contending team in the league yet again. A sure testament to just how strong their locker room and systems are and the culture around the team built up by two of the most respected captains in recent history in Zdeno Chara and Bergeron.
The Bruins are looking to bounce back from a disappointing playoff loss last season in which they set the record for best regular season in NHL history but lost in seven games to the eighth seeded Panthers. Given the culture and mentality of this team, that was surely a major lesson learned and the team will do everything in its power to prevent it from happening again.
Working in their favour is probably the best goaltending tandem in the league between Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman. One of the lessons to learn from last playoffs is whether or not the coaching staff will utilize both of them this time around.
Toronto Maple Leafs
On the other end if the rink will be the Toronto Maple Leafs. Facing their most daunting opponent that has been the subject of many heartbreaking losses in the past, the Maple Leafs are being given yet another opportunity to slay the dragon that is the Boston Bruins.
Led this season by one of the most impressive offensive performances of all time, being Auston Matthews‘ 69-goal season, the Leafs are going to want to overpower the Bruins in any way they can.
The offence will be important for Toronto as they may be weak on the defensive side of things. With 263 goals against over the regular season, the Maple Leafs had the second most goals against of any playoff team. Ahead of only the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Series overview
The Maple Leafs have lost in heartbreaking fashion in Game 7 three consecutive times to the Boston Bruins. They will be incredibly motivated to attack and win this series.
But they will have to contend with the ultimate team system that the Bruins possess. Boston will be looking for ways to exploit the Leafs’ defence. And since they have such good goaltending and reliable defenders, the Bruins have a major advantage in that area.
It will be tough to shut down the Maple Leafs’ offence as they have multiple lines with high end scorers that can outmatch the Bruins’ forward depth.
Prediction
Boston Bruins in seven games.
New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals
New York Rangers
The New York Rangers tried to go all in on last season’s playoff run by bringing in Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko. It did not quite work and they quickly lost. This time around, they focused on smaller depth acquisitions to fill out what is developing into an incredibly deep roster.
Jack Roslovic and Alex Wennberg were added at the deadline to help bolster the offence. And with both of these two being incredibly versatile players, the Rangers have plenty of available combinations to best attack their opponents.
The Rangers’ defence has developed into one of the strongest in the NHL with Adam Fox leading the way offensively with 73 points in 72 games. Followed up by Jacob Trouba and Ryan Lindgren as one of the better shutdown pairings around.
One of the best acquisitions for the Rangers has been backup goaltender Jonathan Quick. In a season where Igor Shesterkin has regressed slightly, having the worst statistical season of his career, Quick has provided some incredible goaltending in a relief role. His best season since 2017–18.
All of this has combined to lead the Rangers to the President’s Trophy as the best team in the NHL through the regular season, narrowly beating out the Dallas Stars by a single point. Will they be able to fare better than that trophy’s recipient has in recent years?
Washington Capitals
If you took a look at the Washington Capitals’ record and statline through the regular season, you would not be expecting to see this team in the playoffs. Although a 40–31–11 record is not the worst, what is astonishing is the -37 goal differential. This is the worst number in the salary cap era, and worst since the early 90s.
What was once an offensive force of an NHL team has become a faint glow of its former self. The Capitals managed just 220 goals in the regular season, fifth worst in the league and by far the worst of any team that qualified for the playoffs. The next worst was the New York Islanders with 246 goals for.
Alex Ovechkin had the hockey world worried early on this season as he started out uncharacteristically slow with only eight goals in his first 43 games, including a 14-game goalless drought. He picked it up for the latter half of the season and ended with 31 on the year, but the 31-goal, 65-point campaign was pretty much the worst full season of his career.
The roster depth for the Capitals is extremely suspect. Despite a mid-season vote of confidence, Washington’s top three centres are Dylan Strome, Connor McMichael, and Hendrix Lapierre. Compared to other teams in the playoffs, this is incredibly lacklustre.
The Capitals were middle of the pack defensively, which doesn’t spur a ton of confidence when going against a high powered team like the Rangers. But Charlie Lindgren has been phenomenal at times through the year and they have a Stanley Cup winning goalie on their roster in Darcy Kuemper as well for some added experience.
Series overview
The easy and safe pick in this series is the Rangers. Logically and on paper, the Capitals don’t really stand much of a chance. But we’ve seen it before where the team that barely scrapes into the playoffs manages to take down the President’s Trophy winner (Columbus’ sweep of the Lightning, the Panthers last season). So it would be foolish to entirely write Washington off.
However, the Rangers have the advantage at every single position and it is hard to believe that a team that could barely score during the regular season in the Capitals will suddenly find their offence and be able to outscore their defensive problems against the sixth highest scoring team in the regular season.
Some other battles to watch during this series incase it gets out of hand is the Lindgren brothers facing off as well as to see what Tom Wilson and Matt Rempe get up to.
Prediction
New York Rangers in five games.
Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Islanders
Carolina Hurricanes
Another season, another chance to finally capitalize on their status as a top performing team analytically and Stanley Cup contender. Early season predictions had them making the Cup Finals this year. And although at times it looked a bit iffy, they fought through some early season goaltending struggles to claw their way back to the top of the Metro Division, finishing second and gaining home ice advantage.
Often, the Carolina Hurricanes are not the team making bold moves. But they’ve gone and made some major acquisitions to help address what has caused them issues in the playoffs in the past. Even though they typically have incredible analytics and are near the top of the league in expected goals, they lack a finishing touch and find it difficult to score in the playoffs at times. To try and fix this, they’ve brought in Jake Guentzel to add to an already impressively deep roster.
As mentioned before, the Hurricanes had struggled with goaltending earlier this season. Those problems, and with it the biggest question mark on Carolina’s roster, have disappeared by the end of the season. Especially with the return of Frederik Andersen, who played just 16 games but had a .932 SV% and 1.89 GAA.
New York Islanders
After starting the season 19–15–11 and sitting just outside of a playoff spot, the New York Islanders made a highly publicized coaching change by bringing in Patrick Roy to take over the team. And it seems to have worked, considering a late season push helped them secure the third spot in the Metro Division.
So far under Roy, the Islanders are 20–12–5, including the incredible final 10 games that pushed them to the top in a crazy battle for playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. Finishing the season 8–1–1 was the type of clutch performance we are accustomed to from the Islanders.
As usual, the Islanders are not an offensively potent team. Their 246 goals for were second worst amongst playoff teams this season. But what they do have this season are a handful of highly talented offensive players who are driving the team’s offence. Bo Horvat, Brock Nelson, and Kyle Palmieri all had 30 goals while Mathew Barzal put up 80 points and Noah Dobson led the defence with 70 points.
Although Ilya Sorokin has struggled a bit through the season, Semyon Varlamov showed us why he is one of the best backups in the league by taking over the crease at times and having one of the better statistical seasons of his career.
Series overview
The Hurricanes tend to have an advantage in this one. Over the past five seasons, the Hurricanes and Islanders have faced off twice in the playoffs, with Carolina winning both times.
Working in the Islanders’ favour this time around is having some offence to match up against the Hurricanes. But it doesn’t quite seem like enough in comparison. New York has a strong defensive group, and although it is quite close, Carolina typically has the deepest defence in the league. And although the Islanders have the advantage in net on paper, the Hurricanes’ netminders have been better statistically.
This could be an extremely close series, but it does appear that Carolina has the edge and seems poised to win this matchup for the third time.
Prediction
Carolina Hurricanes in six games.
