Connor McDavid has a chance to become the third fastest player ever to reach 1000 points, needing 24 points in his next 14 games to pass Mike Bossy for third all-time.
Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux are first and second, of course, reaching the mark in 424 and 513 games respectively.
Bossy hit 1000 in his 656th game, and with 976 points in 641 games so far in his career, McDavid could easily pass him if he keeps up his point-producing pace.
This year, McDavid has put up 1.75 points per game. Last year, he somehow produced 1.87 a game.
He’ll need to score at a 1.71-point per-game rate for the next 14 contests to pass Bossy. If he continues the pace he’s on right now, he should be able to reach 1000 before game 656.
Constant improvement
McDavid was the best prospect since Sidney Crosby when he was drafted. And he proved why in his rookie season, producing over a point a game.
For the next five years, his point production improved season by season until he scored an insane 105 points in 56 games in 2020–21. This year is still McDavid’s best in terms of points per game, but was also only 56 games against some pretty weak Canadian teams.
2021–22 was a “step back” with 123 points in 80 games. But last year McDavid proved the COVID-shortened year wasn’t a fluke, scoring 153 points in 82 games.
He hasn’t quite hit that same level this year, mostly because of a slow start. But he’s still at his third-highest point-per-game total of his career because of his downright ridiculous February and March. He scored 58 points in 27 games in the two months.
| Season | Games Played | Points | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015–16 | 45 | 48 | 1.07 |
| 2016–17 | 82 | 100 | 1.22 |
| 2017–18 | 82 | 108 | 1.32 |
| 2018–19 | 78 | 116 | 1.49 |
| 2019–20 | 64 | 97 | 1.52 |
| 2020–21 | 56 | 105 | 1.88 |
| 2021–22 | 80 | 123 | 1.54 |
| 2022–23 | 82 | 153 | 1.87 |
| 2023–24 | 72 | 126 | 1.75 |
As we can see from the chart, McDavid has hit another gear in the last four years after steadily improving his game earlier in his career.
Bossy’s record was set by having a 1.52 career point per game pace. McDavid has blown that pace out of the water in three of the last four seasons, and will hopefully pass him because of it.
Could he do it this year?
Twenty-four points in eight games seems ridiculous, but I wouldn’t put it past McDavid.
I mean, he had 18 in his last eight before Edmonton was shut out by the Dallas Stars on Wednesday. And if the Oilers are in meaningful games down the stretch, it’s possible.
He’s potted four or more points six times this year. String a couple of those together, and you never know.
Edmonton also faces off against the Arizona Coyotes twice before the year ends, along with the San Jose Sharks. Their other matchups are a lot tougher, but clinched teams could rest or manage their stars ice time. There’s a decent opportunity in the last eight games to make a run at it. He just can’t have any bad games.
McDavid is also right in the middle of a scoring race with Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon, so maybe that gives him a bit of extra juice.
Hitting the mark early next year is much more likely. Say McDavid scores at a 1.75-point per-game pace for the last eight games, that’s 14 points. That would leave him 10 back of Bossy with six games left to pass him.
But it would be super cool to see him get to 1000 points in one of the final games of this year.
An era-defining achievement
We are less than a decade separated from Jamie Benn winning the scoring title with 87 points. For McDavid to arrive in the NHL and score at the rate he has is incredible. There was a while there where it looked like no one would ever hit 120 points again, let alone 150.
Whether he does it this year or next, being behind only the two greatest players ever in the race to 1000 points could be McDavid’s greatest achievement.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
