Warren Foegele is going to become an upcoming unrestricted free agent this summer. With the growing cap concerns due to Connor Brown’s bonus and the fact we have to save some cap room for the big Evan Bouchard and Leon Draisaitl extensions, there’s going to be some hard decisions for the Edmonton Oilers over the next few years. One of those is whether to extend Warren Foegele past this season. Should they let him walk? Well let’s dive deeper into the numbers. (All stats are from Moneypuck, JfreshHockey and NaturalStatTrick)
History with the Oilers
Before coming to Edmonton, Foegele’s career high came in the 2019–20 shortened season where he collected 30 points along with 13 goals. After a subpar season the year after, Foegele was traded for Ethan Bear and signed a three-year, $2.75M deal. His first year in Edmonton wasn’t remarkable, as he found himself on the fourth line a lot and was even a healthy scratch for some of the playoff games in Edmonton. A 12-goal season led to speculation of him being a cap causality in the offseason. However, he found himself on a very effective third line the year after with Ryan McLeod and Derek Ryan, and collected 28 points in 67 games. A very nice year for him.
This season he’s been playing a lot with Leon Draisaitl. This, of course, gives him an uptick in production. Currently, Foegele has 16 goals and 36 points throughout the 71 games played so far. Both are career highs. Now, the obvious observation is that he shouldn’t get a massive pay raise over one great season playing with an elite player. But what about his metrics last season and his last few years in Carolina?
Analytics
Foegele was viewed as good 5v5 play driver with subpar defensive and finishing analytics in Carolina. Essentially, on the ice, he was able to generate offence and a lot of puck possession for his club but failed to actually convert the offensive pressure to goals for his team. In the 2018–19 season, Foegele scored 10 goals on 13.9xG. In 2019–20, he once again underperformed his xG counter by scoring 13 on 15.4. In his last season in Carolina, once again, he went 10 goals on 13.6xG. This is a trend that’s followed into Edmonton.
Like in Carolina, Foegele’s a really good 5v5 play driver with mid defence and cannot finish his chances at all. In 2021–22 he went 12 goals on 17.4xG(!!!!!), he went 13 goals on 18.1xg(!!!) the season after and currently this season, he’s once again, vastly underperforming, going 16 on 22.2 while playing with Draisaitl. It doesn’t help the fact that most of the seasons his PDO is under 1.000, which alludes to the point that Foegele, no matter how much offence he’ll try to drive 5v5, will actually convert to goals.
Decision for the Oilers
In my mind, the Oilers should only extend Foegele if his cap hit is near what he makes currently, in the $2.75-3M range. Anything above that and I’d walk. Foegele’s definitely having a career season, who is yet still underperforming the amount and rate he should be scoring at, and the Oilers have consistently become victims in falling into this trap like they did with Alex Chiasson, Zack Kassian, etc. A fair deal would be to give Foegele the same exact contract as he’s never been better than a 12G 28P guy when not playing with the top guns. Do the Oilers see it that way? Time will tell.
Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire
