The Edmonton Oilers are set to enter yet another summer where a decision will have to be made with their goaltending. Summer 2023 saw the team stand pat with their existing tandem. 2022 was the summer of signing Jack Campbell to his five-year, $5M per year contract. Before that, it was three consecutive summers of looking for upgrades on the Mike Smith-Mikko Koskinen tandem before landing back in the same spot.
This summer will be no different. Stuart Skinner is starting to establish himself as a legitimate #1 goalie. However, Campbell is still an issue. He will have three years remaining on his deal, and the Oilers seem unlikely to be willing to try the reclamation route for a second consecutive season. That leaves a trade or buyout, which will likely be a buyout based on the lack of assets the organization has and the expected price to get another organization to take on $15M in contracts. One way or another, Campbell will not be an Oiler by the time the puck drops in October (although I believe he’s in serious consideration to be the playoff backup).
How Pickard has been doing this season
That leaves Calvin Pickard behind Skinner. The 31-year-old has enjoyed the most successful NHL season of his career since being recalled in November. In 15 games, he has a 10–4–0 record with a 2.25 goals against average, .919 save percentage and one shutout (and one unofficial shutout). According to EvolvingHockey, he has a +6 goals saved above expected and a +1.04% differential Fenwick save percentage. One caveat to these results is that Pickard has only played behind Kris Knoblauch’s edition of the Oilers, which has shown to be an extremely goalie friendly defensive environment based on both public and particularly private expected goals models. Based on starting the year as the Oilers’ organizational #3, there should be no complaints of Pickard based on the expectations.
Based on that play, there have been rumours that the Oilers may be looking to extend Pickard. But should they? The answer is maybe, but definitely not yet, for multiple reasons, many of which have nothing to do with
Skinner needs to establish himself in the playoffs
After what started off as a disastrous sophomore campaign, Skinner has righted the ship and began to show that he is a legitimate #1 goalie in the NHL. Since the coaching change, ClearSight Analytics has Skinner as a top five goalie in the entire league. As of Wednesday, over the entire season, Skinner ranks seventh in games played with 49. Despite his poor start, he has rebounded to 18th in goals saved above expected with +14.46. And this all comes at the extremely reasonable cap hit of $2.6M.
However, the regular season ultimately doesn’t mean much to the Oilers. Somehow the team doesn’t have a Pacific Division title during the McDavid era, but the team has it’s sights set on winning in the playoffs. Skinner’s first taste of NHL playoff action did not go well. In 12 games, he had an .883 save percentage and 3.68 goals against average.
All arrows are pointing up, but Skinner needs to show that he can have success in the playoffs this year. Otherwise, Edmonton will need to look for more of a tandem partner for the homegrown goaltender that can push for starts and be trusted in the playoffs against top competition if needed.
Pickard is not that guy. Despite his strong overall numbers, Pickard has yet to post a save percentage in a game against a decent offence above .900, and is well below expected over that stretch. It’s not his fault either. Up until this year, Pickard was settling into a role as an organizational #3, switching between teams every few seasons. There appears to be some progression to the point where he could be a potential back up, but to be trusted against the league top teams seems like a stretch for the veteran pro.
I think Skinner is likely to have playoff success in 2024. If he doesn’t, the Oilers will need someone better than Pickard to aid him in the crease in the 2024–25 season.
What is the plan for Rodrigue?
Olivier Rodrigue was an Oilers second-round draft pick in 2018, and after some stagnation immediately following his draft, has shown steady progression in recent seasons. Rodrigue is currently 10th in the AHL in save percentage with a .918 in 28 games after finishing 10th last year with a .912 in 29 games. The Bakersfield Condors have fielded a strong roster, but it’s tough to argue that Rodrigue hasn’t done enough to continue earning more opportunity.
However, the Oilers haven’t given him that. Pickard started 38 times last year, playing the vast majority of games when healthy, in addition to Ryan Fanti’s eight starts. This year, Pickard started four times early before being recalled and then Jack Campbell has got 29 starts since being assigned to Bakersfield.
Based on the back-to-back successful seasons, Rodrigue has earned a bigger shot, likely as a team’s organizational #3. He enters this offseason as a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. What is likely a bigger issue is that Rodrigue will be waiver eligible at the start of next season. Rodrigue likely hasn’t proven enough to be a true NHL backup next year, but a team might throw a claim in to have him as a third NHL goalie on a roster to see if something is there.
That leaves the Oilers in a precarious situation. They likely want to bring back Rodrigue as the starter in Bakersfield, but he might not make it through waivers. If he does, Edmonton will likely want a tandem partner with more experience, pushing recent signee Connor Ungar to Fort Wayne. That second goalie will play behind Rodrigue, and not get a ton of opportunity.
After what has been his best NHL season, I doubt Pickard will be looking to take two steps back from the NHL backup to the AHL backup. There’s no scenario where it makes sense to bring Pickard back into the organization unless he’s firmly starting the season as either the backup in Edmonton or the starter in Bakersfield, and bring back Rodrigue fills one of those spots.
Are there backup upgrades?
If Skinner passes the playoff test, that does not mean the Oilers should just automatically default to bringing back the same tandem. That same logic lead to re-signing Zack Kassian, Evander Kane, and the multiple years of the Smith-Koskinen tandem, where defaulting to what’s existing, particularly on outlier season, results in ultimate regression over the longer term.
The league overall appears set for a game of musical goalies when the offseason begins. Linus Ullmark is set to be moved out of Boston, while the Bruins use Brandon Bussi as an internal replacement. The same will likely occur in Calgary, with Dustin Wolf taking Jacob Markstrom’s job. Minnesota will likely be running a tandem of Fillip Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt, meaning that Marc-André Fleury will have to find a new home if he wishes to continue his career. Barry Trotz will have to decide what is happening between Jusse Saros, who will be a year away from UFA, Kevin Lankinen, who will be a UFA, and Yaroslav Askarov, who is impressing in the AHL. New Jersey acquired Jake Allen and Kappo Kahkonen at the deadline, with Allen remaining under contract, but also have Akira Schmid and Nico Daws in Utica, and may yet be seeking a starter upgrade. Spencer Knight has spent the year in the AHL after a stint in the player assistance program, but Florida likely can’t afford to have his $4.5M cap hit in the minors again with all of their UFAs and will have to either make a move with Knight or let go of Anthony Stolarz. With all these moving parts, there are going to be goalie shaking loose.
Beyond the trade market, there are 21 unrestricted free agents that have played between four and 35 games this year, marking them as either tandem or backups. Jonathan Quick and Samuel Montembault have already signed extensions, removing them from the mix. However, there are several intriguing options amongst the list.
Former Oilers Laurent Brossoit and Anthony Stolarz have been stellar backups this season. Brossoit has a .927 SV% and +15.48 GSAx in 18 GP, while Stolarz has a .925 SV% and +16.51 GSAx in 21 GP. In L.A., Cam Talbot and David Rittich have each had their time as the guy, and have posted extremely favourable results. Talbot has a .918 SV% and +15.86 GSAX in 44 GP, while Rittich has a .916 SV% and +12.98 GSAx with Rob Blake still continuing to look for goalie help. Casey DeSmith (.897 SV%, +0.56 GSAx) and Scott Wedgewood (.902 SV%, -4.37 SV%) have not had the same sparkling numbers as some of the others, but have both carried the load for their teams while the starters have been injured. Fleury is unlikely to come to Edmonton based on previous trade discussions, but he is likely the ideal running mate for Skinner. Other names that are intriguing include Alex Nedeljkovic, Kevin Lankinen, James Reimer and Kaapo Kahkonen.
In some of these cases, Pickard has had better results in 2023–24. However, based on the sheltered starts he has received against lesser offences and the strong defensive environment the Knoblauch Oilers have played, there is a legitimate case that these goalies could have better results in Edmonton. Clear Sight combines all these factors, and has Pickard at slightly above expected, but it definitely appears to be an outlier based on his career.
The biggest issue that Pickard has when playing up to stronger competition is his skating. Based on his stance, Pickard does not have great mobility in his hips and knees, which results in a stance where his knees are straighter with more of a bend in his upper body with his weight shifting forward. This is contrast to Skinner, who has a deeper knee bend and has his weight more over his skates, which allows him to be more balanced.
This shows up in Pickard’s skating a few different ways. The first is that on T-pushes, he needs to make an extra movement with backside leg to set and reset his weight balance, which causes delays if there’s a subsequent push to be made. It also shows up when following the puck around the zone, as it makes it harder to take small shuffles and ends up drifting on plays, which has cost him a couple times this year.
The third spot is more related to save execution, but follows into recoveries as well. Because Pickard starts with such a steep chest angle, when he drops into a butterfly, it pushes his chest backwards and up, which not only makes proper save execution and closing on the puck tougher, but makes creates an extra step to get back down when recovering to rebounds.
Pickard has giving the Oilers some much needed stability since being recalled. However, there are some major technical deficiencies in his game that may be an issue down the road, particularly if he’s needed in a starting capacity in case of injury or struggles. With the crop of goalies likely to be available, the Oilers should see if there might be an upgrade available.
What move should the Oilers make?
The Oilers will have to make another move in their crease this summer with Calvin Pickard and Olivier Rodrigue’s contracts expiring and the expected departure of Jack Campbell. However, what exactly they need to go shopping for remains to be seen.
Stuart Skinner has turned his season from a disappointment into another strong regular season, but will need to prove that can extend to the playoffs before Edmonton settles for a true backup instead of a tandem partner. If there are still questions about the starting role, there’s nothing in Pickard’s history that points that he can be a 1B.
If questions remain about the starter, that could push Pickard into organizational #3 role once again. However, the emergence of Rodrigue means that bringing Pickard back in that role would be suppressing the development of Edmonton’s best goaltending prospect, and it’s unlikely that Pickard would take a diminished role behind a goalie he’s played ahead of since joining the Oilers organization.
If it makes sense to settle for a true backup, there are going to plenty of available goalies this summer based on the anticipated goalie movement. It looks like there will be better bets available, so it could be possible to upgrade on Pickard at a low cost. Extending Pickard now would have the Oilers bidding against themselves while top options remain on the market.
It’s possible that Skinner is great in the playoffs and the Oilers strike out in free agency with one of the better goalie options, at which point it’ll make sense to bring back Pickard. He’s been a great story, reportedly a great teammate, and has had some success in a sheltered role. But doing so now would be a premature decision before having all the necessary information to make that call.
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