Welcome to the first Oil Rig Roundtable. We have four writers and four Edmonton Oiler related questions. Feel free to add your own answers in the comments.
Question 1: Calvin Pickard has won six in a row. Are you okay with him as the backup heading into playoffs?
Faiz: Yes and no. If he can sustain his play enough and be a somewhat competent backup to give Stuart Skinner enough time off, then sure. Come playoffs you don’t expect him to play, and given the limited cap space, is trying to upgrade on a backup goalie really worth potentially sacrificing other needs? On the other hand, if Skinner falters/gets injured, then the team is absolutely screwed if Pickard has to carry the mail.
Sean: Backup, yes. 1B, no. I anticipate seeing a lot more of him down the stretch with the heavy schedule to give Skinner a break which will be the true test to answer this question. If he is only the backup, likely not playing many, if any, minutes in the playoffs, yes. I do trust that he can come in and be a serviceable goalie when needed. But if Skinner falls off in the playoffs again like last season, I’m not sure I trust him to take over the crease in that situation.
Greg: Okay is a good enough way of putting it. Pickard been able to give Skinner some rest here and there, and is contributing to the team’s efforts to make the playoffs, which is valuable. The team seems to trust Pickard and plays good defence in front of him. The only way his services are meaningful or taxed in any way into the playoffs is a Skinner injury, a scenario in which another goalie would be called up. I understand having trepidation about the second string goalie situation, but quite frankly the Oilers are very deep if we measure down to third or fourth string. In the playoffs, where the cap doesn’t matter, the equation changes slightly as well. To be fair, Jack Campbell has always performed his best in high leverage games, including last season’s playoffs. It’s probably a bit unfair to throw Olivier Rodrigue into a playoff game for his first in the NHL, but he’s earned a lot of trust. There’s a non-zero chance that either Campbell or Rodrigue is equipped to be the Oilers starter given a hypothetical Skinner absence, and within the context of this season’s playoffs these options constitute a fairly reasonable platoon of potential second stringers.
Czechboy98: Pickard is to be commended for sticking with it and for going on a great winning streak of six in a row. His stats are great and he is back in the NHL as a full timer. That is amazing for the former Colorado Avalanche’s second rounder! If Skinner gets injured and the playoff plan is Pickard and Campbell, then I am very concerned despite the great season (.910). Pickard is a throwback to more athletic goalies who rely on their instincts. His has nine NHL games (for Detroit) under his belt since 2020. He is at 10 now for us. So he has provided tremendous value but I’m just not sure I want to see him on the bench when playoffs start.
Question 2: Are you comfortable with our current top four going into a playoff series against teams like the Colorado Avalanche or Vegas Golden Knights?
Greg: The Oilers blueline is one of the strengths of the team, in my opinion, and possesses a lot of the qualities that are en vogue. The elephant in the room is that two of the Oilers six regulars are often the focus of negative reviews towards the group as a whole. I don’t think these other contending teams are without similar issues in their top sixes. All of these teams could be upgraded in theory, and I would characterize the Oilers blueline as at least being in the same class as these other contenders’ groups.
Sean: Yes. Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard are an elite pairing with some of the best numbers in the league and have now had a full season together. Last playoffs, those two got a bit discombobulated against Vegas and it showed. But hopefully with a full season together, they will have worked those kinks out. And overall, Darnell Nurse has looked great this season in his reduced role and looks significantly better as a second pairing defender. An upgrade on Cody Ceci would be nice to really make this an elite top four, but I think the way the roles are divvied out at the moment would be enough.
Czechboy98: The St. Louis Blues won a Cup a few years ago where they heavily relied on three D so it is possible. However, I’m just not a huge fan of Ceci in the top four or getting heavy minutes. To me, Ceci is miscast and is always in a spot one notch above his ability level. It is like asking a police officer to put out a fire; that’s not their job. He has done a great job and is worth every penny but he’s not the guy I want to see playing 20 a night in the top four against the Avs, Knights or Vancouver Canucks. I’d love him on our fifth or sixth pair with Brett Kulak and would welcome him in the top four when an injury happens. We need one more RHD to push Ceci down.
Faiz: Yup. Ekholm, Nurse, and Bouchard are an excellent top three, and if Ceci does start to falter, Vincent Desharnais and Kulak can play well enough to take that fourth spot. Would I love to get an upgrade for Nurse’s partner? Sure, but it depends on the cost.
Question 3: Are you happy with Ken Holland’s work as GM this season so far?
Sean: This season? Yes. I get that earlier in the year the emotions and panic were running high on the need to make a move for a goaltender, and make one immediately. But him and his team did not press the panic button too hard and made as few moves as they needed to to try and right the ship. Instead of overpaying for a goalie, they just kept what they had, sent Campbell down to Bakersfield, and trusted that the luck would turn itself around since the performance indicated they were much better than the results showed. The coaching change, as unfortunate as it was, is a fairly common and expected move when a team is struggling like that as a way to jump start or reset the team.
Czechboy98: Yes and no. The Ekholm trade was beyond brilliant and “if” we win a Cup that move will be a big reason. Trading Tyson Barrie and freeing Bouch has also been a huge move. The Corey Perry signing was great business. However, we have our apparent starter Campbell making $5M to play in the AHL. We have Connor Brown taking $3M in cap space next season. Those two alone are over $8M in cap space gone. We still have Ceci in the top four. We still don’t have a second goalie. Holland needs to rectify both those issues in the next month. If he picks up Chris Tanev and a more established 1B goalie, then I’ll change my tune.
Greg: It’s rare that a GM grade can be given fairly in the vacuum of a single season, much less an incomplete one, as we have yet to pass the trade deadline. In general, most of the analyses we see about Holland’s work with the Oilers are focused on the missteps, of which there have certainly been a few, in either talent evaluation or moral failings. While this is not the space to dissect every single one of these, to an extent evaluating a GMs performance on a case by case basis is often a losing game that fails to consider a more wholistic context. Over the course of Holland’s tenure the Oilers have steadily improved from a team that had two MVPs yet was struggling to even make the playoffs, into the most consistently competitive the franchise has been since the glory days of last millennium. This season’s team is the Oilers best of the McDavid era, in my opinion. On the last year of his deal, it might make sense to move on from Holland after this season, but I have a hard time believing that his work with the Oilers has been subpar.
Faiz: Depends on the day you ask me. But he has definitely created a strong team, and it is looking like the coaching change was the right move (especially forcing Paul Coffey to coach against his will). Yeah you can point to Brown, but at the same time I don’t think anyone expected another Tobias Rieder level of drop in production from him, and at the time the use of the bonus structure was looked at as a very savvy cap move. Outside of moving Campbell, there isn’t much more he could have done with the limited cap space.
Question 4: Are the Oilers today a legit Stanley Cup Contender?
Sean: On paper the Oilers are a legit Stanley Cup Contender. On the ice is another question. As we’ve seen the past two seasons, the team that ends up winning the Cup can easily dismantle anything the Oilers can put on the ice. This team is woefully inconsistent at times and it is worrisome when going up against a team like the Golden Knights and seeing how easily that team can stifle Edmonton’s offence.
Faiz: Yes. Are they the favourite? No, but I would say that them winning this year would not be a surprise, and that is my definition of a cup contender. I have them behind (in no particular order) Vegas, Colorado, New York Rangers, Dallas, Boston and shudders Vancouver. That last one makes me feel dirty.
Czechboy98: I think we are a great regular season team but still not a great playoff team. We lack some grit, a top-four RHD and we are relying on Skinner to do it all. Avs and Knights have recent playoff success and know what it takes. Dallas is deep. LA can still be a pain. Nucks have been unbelievable and keep adding pieces. The Winnipeg Jets are very well built. The West is murderer’s row and I don’t feel our roster today can get through three rounds of it. We are close though.
Greg: Absolutely. There might be a few teams that one sees as better than the Oilers at this point, but often these perceptions are built on past experience. The Knights and the Avalanche have “won it before”, giving them a level of prestige that the Oilers cannot match without a Cup of their own. The Dallas Stars are the other Western Conference team that has consistently had playoff success over the past few seasons. To win a playoff round in back to back seasons, as the Oilers have, is rare, as is a conference final appearance. Of course with the elite talent on the Oilers roster, as well as the chaotic nature of hockey, it’s hard to make a case against the Oilers here.
Well? Who do you agree with? Who do you disagree with?
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
