Much has been made about the less than ideal start to the 2023–24 season for the Edmonton Oilers. What was supposed to be a year to contend for the Stanley Cup was looking like one of the biggest busts in NHL history as the team was competing to not be last in the league few weeks into the season.
But after a coaching change bringing in Kris Knoblauch and Paul Coffey (and some luck changes as the disturbingly low PDO the Oilers had to start the season turned around), things have started looking up.
Since the coaching change, the Oilers are one of the top teams in the league with a 18–6–0 record. And importantly, a massive turnaround in PDO, which has exceeded 100 in that same span.
Not only does the turnaround after Knoblauch and Coffey took over bode well for the rest of the season, the Oilers’ record in the second half of the past few seasons is also a very good indicator of what might come with the New Year.
Slow starts and December slumps have plagued the organization at times in recent years, but despite that, the Oilers have still managed to have some of the best regular seasons in franchise history.
How have they accomplished this? By regularly being one of, if not, the best team in the NHL over the second half of the season.
Oilers past second halves
A top team in the league dreams to put up a .700 points percentage. That paces out to be around 115 points over a full 82 games.
The Oilers have pushed far past that sometimes in the second half of seasons in recent years.
The incredible second half in 2022–23
In 2022–23, the Oilers finished the season with 109 points. That represents the fifth highest point total in franchise history, a number that has not been reached since the dynasty years in the 1980s. But the team was not dominant all season long. They were actually quite average in the first half with a 21–17–3 record, 45 points and a .549 points percentage.
That placed them fifth in the Pacific Division and eighth in the Western Conference.
So how did they manage to skyrocket up the standings and end up challenging for the Pacific Division title? Edmonton had a 29–6–6 record in the second half. That is a .780 points percentage and the equivalent of 127 points over a full season.
The Jay Woodcroft effect in 2021–22
How about in 2021–22, the season where Jay Woodcroft took over in early February?
After winning nine of their first 10 games, the Oilers’ struggles were well documented through a very difficult winter. One which included a stretch of going 2–11–2 through December and January.
Overall, in the first half of that season, Edmonton went 22–16–3. The 47 points in that half is a .573 points percentage.
Woodcroft took over shortly after the halfway mark, in game 45. In the second half of 2021–22, the Oilers went 27–11–3. A 10-point improvement up to 57 points and a .695 points percentage.
The start of the second half heaters in 2020–21
And finally, though less pronounced than the next two seasons, the trend was even seen in the shortened 2020–21 season.
A 17–11–0 record in the first 28 games left them with 34 points and a .607 points percentage. A slightly improved 18–8–2 record in the final 28 games earned them 38 points and a .679 points percentage.
The fact that the Oilers have a very similar record at this point compared to what they did in other recent seasons is a good sign that the season was not as hopeless as some of us once thought.
As Edmonton approaches the halfway point of the season, a mark they will hit on January 18’s game against the Seattle Kraken, we will be able to see how much this trend continues.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
