It’s the beginning of December and the Edmonton Oilers are currently five points out of a playoff spot. They’ll kick off the month with a six-game homestand starting on the sixth against the Carolina Hurricanes. However, the Oilers need to have over a .500 month if they want to continue to challenge for a playoff spot. Their schedule isn’t that bad this month, but the Oilers have a really, really bad history when it comes to the month of December in the McDavid era. Just how bad is it? Well, let’s dive into a look here.
Slumps in December
In 2015–16, the Oilers were 8–15–2 entering the month without rookie Connor McDavid. They won their first six games, actually finding themselves in a playoff spot, but then crashed and burned and fell to a record of 7–6–1. They ended the year going 16–2–-5. When it comes to their advanced numbers, they ranked in the month of December: 23rd in CF%, 25th in FF%, 21st in GF%, and 23rd in xGF%. They were really, really bad. That month set the mood for the rest of the season.
Next up is 2016–17, which was another weird month. Entering December, the Oilers were mediocre with a 12–10–2 record. They went on to record at least a point in 12 of 14 games, a record of 7–2–5. Now, there’s two ways to look at this. One can argue that this is good because they only went two games collecting 0 points. On the other hand, they still lost seven games during that stretch. The Oilers finished the season going 28–14–2 and went all the way to the seventh game of the second round. Once again, That month set the tone for the rest of the season. When it comes to their advanced numbers, they ranked in the month of December: 14th in CF%, 18th in FF%, 17th in GF%, and 23rd in xGF%. They were mediocre like their record shows.
In 2017–18, heading in they were 10–14–2. They were barely above .500 going 7–5–2. They finished the season going 19–21–3. Their advanced numbers: 10th(!!!) in CF%, 7th(!!!!) in FF%, 9th in GF%, and 5th(!!!!) in xGF%. This is the first instance where the numbers do not back up Edmonton’s record. But, it is worth mentioning that goaltender Cam Talbot missed two weeks and that had a big factor in the Oilers games. So why did the season not go as smoothly? I think it was a factor of their horrible powerplay, Talbot’s fatigue, the lack of depth scoring, and Andrej Sekera and Oscar Klefbom essentially playing injured.
Next up is the clown-show that was the 2018–19 season. With new Head Coach Ken Hitchcock, the Oilers were 3–1–1 heading into the month, a cumulative record of 12–11–2, similar to the 2016–17 season. The Oilers started the month 6–1–1 but injuries to Klefbom and Kris Russell, along with, once again, the lack of depth and horrible goaltending, the Oilers fell to the bottom of the league losing six straight in regulation to close off the month with a record of 6–7–1. To end the season, they went 17–19–6. Unlike last season, the Oilers advanced numbers are horrible. 24th in CF%, 27th in FF%, 17th in GF%, and 29th in xGF% They were very ineffective under Hitchcock and this carried forth in the new year.
In the first year under Dave Tippett in 2019–20, the Oilers went into December with a 16–9–3 record. In December, they were awful. Truly terrible. A record of 5–8–1. The goaltending was awful, the depth scoring once again was nowhere to be found, and it was trending to be another year of missing the playoffs. The result? Unlike previous seasons, the record in December DOES NOT reflect what the outcome was afterwards. The Oilers heated up, with Kailer Yamamoto called up, and were 16–8–5 after that dreadful month. They bought at the deadline and picked up Andreas Athanasiou, Tyler Ennis, and Mike Green and then COVID-19 happened. I truly wonder what the Oilers would have done and would even look like now if the pandemic didn’t happen… cap would of went up. Anyways, their advanced numbers are as followed: 30th in CF%, 20th in FF%, dead LAST in GF%, and 26th in xGF%. I remember just being embarrassed and frustrated with every game they played.
The previous two seasons
Well… next is 2021–22. We all know the story with this one. Entering the month 15–5, thanks to the power play and the dynamic duo only, the Oilers were on top of the league. What happened afterwards? Going 3–7–1 in December, with a stretch of 2–11–2 that stretched into late January—going from the best in the league to clinging onto a wild card spot. Educated people saw this coming from a mile away, while the rest of the fanbase was telling those fans to stop being “negative”. Tippett, thankfully, got canned and in came Jay Woodcroft leading us to a 26–9–3 record. The Oilers made it all the way to the Western Conference Finals that season. Once again, the record in December doen’t actually reflect on what happened the rest of the way, but if Tippett was coach I have no doubt they miss the playoffs that season. Their advanced numbers: 10th in CF%, 13th in FF%, 29th in GF%, and 12th in xGF%
Coming into the month they were 13–10–0 in 2022–23. As per usual, the Oilers were very meh going 7–6–2 and were outside of a playoff spot on New Years Eve. They were the best team in the league afterwards going 30–7–7. The advanced numbers support their record as they were: 19th in CF%, 21st in FF%, 12th in GF%, and 15th in xGF%
What to expect this year?
The Oilers will play twelve games this month. Recent history has shown that the Oilers will stumble a bit in December and then go on a heater for the rest of the season. The thing is: I feel like the Oilers already have went through their slump this season and will finally have a December to remember for once. Six straight at home, after winning a huge game in Winnipeg, will do wonders for their confidence.
Record they need to make playoffs
Now, let’s speculate how many points the Oilers need to make the playoffs. Historically, it’s around the 95-point mark. However, with the West being so bad this year it might be less. In 2015–16, the cut off was 87 points (yes it was that low), the following two seasons it was at 94 to 95, and 2018–19’s cutoff was 90. 2019–2020 and 2020–21 were affected by the pandemic and different divisions so we won’t count them here. In 2021–22 it was 97 points and last season it was at 95.
Looking at previous seasons, along with how the standings align so far, let’s assume the Oilers need 93 points to get in. Currently, they’re 9–12–1 with 19 points. They would need 74 in their final 60 games which is very doable for this team. This would equate to a record of 37–23–0. If you want to sprinkle some OT games in there, something along the lines of 32–20–8 would get them to the 91 to 93 mark which should be enough. Can they do it? Yes. Will they do it? I believe so.
Stats from naturalstattrick.com
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
