Jack Campbell was waived on November 6 by the Edmonton Oilers, and after clearing, subsequently assigned to the Bakersfield Condors. After a terrible first season in Edmonton, the Oilers finally had enough to send him to the minors after a shaky start to his 2023–24 campaign. Campbell opened this year with a 1–4 record, 4.50 GAA, and .873 SV%, which looked worse on paper than the .888 SV% and 3.41 GAA from the year prior.
Part of that fall off had to do with the team defence, and in a way that is not quantifiable to the public. According to private analytics firm Clear Sight Analytics (CSA), the Oilers were 32nd in the league in rush defence at the time of Campbell’s demotion, providing one of the worst defensive environments for the 31-year-old. While Campbell was fifth last in CSA’s Goals Against Differential (their version of goals saved above expected) at -18.88 last year, Campbell was apparently just below breakeven when he was sent down.
The plan for Campbell
Based on all the media reporting and direct quotes from the front office, the Oilers’ plan from the beginning was to send Campbell down to find his game, then recall him back to the NHL once he had regained some confidence. The start distribution has matched that plan, with Campbell starting eight times to Olivier Rodrigue’s two since the move was made.
The problem is that Campbell is not holding up his end of the bargain. Despite the ample playing time, lower stress environment, and good defensive scheme (backed up by Calvin Pickard’s .939 SV% and Rodrigue’s .935 SV%), Campbell has arguably been worse in Bakersfield than he was with Edmonton. Through those eight starts, he’s only posted a save percentage above .900 three times to go with a 4–4–0 record and .887 SV% overall.
More troubling than just the stats is the way Campbell is playing, and more specifically the types of goals he’s giving up on a regular basis. On a given Condors game night, the Twitter timeline is littered with clips of the latest soft goal from the opposition. He’s being repeatedly beat from distance and beat through his body. Campbell has brought in Manny Legace, a former Columbus Blue Jackets goalie coach, to help get his game back on track while the highly regarded Sylvain Rodrigue is also with the Condors as a resource.
Kevin Woodley also reported that Campbell has been working with a psychologist, which has helped keep his mental state positive. Even with that help, it does not seem to be turning around whatsoever for Campbell.
Does it make sense to call Campbell up?
With the Oilers’ defence starting to stabilize under Coach Kris Knoblauch and Paul Coffey, Edmonton’s netminder on a given game is having a much easier time than they were in earlier in the season. But even with the Oilers clamping down as much they have, they won’t be able to completely eliminate every chance.
With Campbell giving up the back breaking goals he is, it would be extremely harmful to the momentum the team has built up over the seven-game win streak. The Oilers are back to a .500 points percentage, but they still have a lot of ground to make up in their quest for a playoff spot. Edmonton simply cannot afford to give an unreliable option another shot. If Campbell comes back up, not only will it cost the Oilers the extra bodies they have on the roster right now, but they could easily lose important points in their goal to climb back into a playoff spot.
The Oilers made their bed when they signed Campbell to his massive contract. Instead of trying to salvage what was a clear mistake, they need to come up with a plan to deal with the contract and move on.
