Today we will look at the rate of goal scoring over the years in the NHL. The chart below shows the average goals scored per game for each season of the NHL.
Goal scoring started at an incredible rate, peaking at 9.58 goals per game before plummeting to an all time low at 2.91 goals per game. A 6.67 GPG change in only nine years. Goal scoring briefly stabilized before spiking during World War 2 then falling just as quickly. From then until the early 1980s goal scoring rose steadily, followed by a steady fall until the mid-2000s and lastly a slow but steady rise from then till now.
While some of the extremely rapid dips and rises are difficult to explain, I suspect the steadier rises can be explained by people’s love of scoring goals. Since scoring goals is more fun, kids practice those skills most, technological advances are likely to favour the offensive side of the game, and the game is slowly pushed in that direction. The use of curved blades to help elevate the puck and increase accuracy in the 1960s for example, likely had a large effect on the rate of scoring.
The last two changes in the rate of goal scoring are relatively clear though.
Adoption of the butterfly technique
One of the biggest reasons for the decrease in goals from the mid-1980s until 2003–04 was a huge change in goaltending. Stand-up style goaltending was the norm since the start of the NHL. One of the reasons for that was that goalies didn’t wear masks, so if you dropped down to your knees to make a save you might wear a puck in the face. Slowly though the norm changed.
Clint Benedict played for the Ottawa Senators and Montreal Maroons in the earliest days of the NHL. He often preferred to play from his knees but at the time goalies weren’t allowed to drop to their knees. The story is that he would pretend to lose his balance and fall to his knees in order to play from there. This rule was quickly changed in the second half of the first NHL season though.
Glenn Hall played for the Detroit Red Wings, Chicago Blackhawks, and St. Louis Blues in the 1950s and 60s. He is considered the first goaltender to play the butterfly style, which was a brave endeavour because goalies were not wearing masks quite yet. To react to a shot by dropping to your knees was a bold move.
Adoption of the goalie mask
In the 1959–60 season, Jacques Plante popularized the goalie mask, though he wasn’t the first to wear a mask—Clint Benedict actually was. Plante had been wearing a mask in practice but Toe Blake, his coach, would not let him wear it in games as he thought it would restrict his vision.
After a shot broke his nose though, Plante received stitches and returned to the game wearing the mask. Plante’s Canadiens went on a 18-game unbeaten streak. When he stopped wearing the mask, they lost, so he returned to wearing the mask and the rest is history.
Goalie masks becoming the norm allowed goalies to drop to their knees with less fear of severe facial damage, but the stand-up style of play continued to be the norm.
Further use of the butterfly
Tony Esposito, Roger Crozier, and Vladislav Tretiak are a few goaltending legends who employed the butterfly to great effect. Roger Crozier played with the Detroit Red Wings and Buffalo Sabres in the ‘60s and ‘70s and helped develop the butterfly style further.
Tony Esposito played for the Montreal Canadiens very briefly and then with the Blackhawks in the ‘70s and early ‘80s. He picked up where Crozier left off, using Crozier as inspiration. He also talked about backing into the net as the shooter approached as opposed to the opposite which was common at the time. In this way, the goalie could be ready for the cross ice pass should it come.
Lastly, the great Vladislav Tretiak, the Russian Red Army goalie in the ‘70s and early ‘80s. The legend was known for being in extremely good shape and being able to transition from his feet to the butterfly and back again at the drop of a Ruble.
Permanent implantation of the butterfly
The domino that started them all falling was Patrick Roy—a four-time Stanley Cup winner, three-time Conn Smythe Trophy winner, three-time Vezina Trophy winner, and a Calder Cup winner. With the help of lighter and safer equipment. he was able to fully play the butterfly style.
He also worked with equipment designers to create the profly style pad which made it easier and more natural for a goalie to sit the side of their pads flat against the ice. From Roy’s debut in the mid-80s on, the butterfly quickly gained momentum until it was completely adopted in the game of hockey, as it still is now.
The adoption of the butterfly style as well as the lightweight gear allowed goalies to stop far more shots. Goaltending became less about reactionary saves and more about positioning, economy of movement, and simply covering as much of the net as possible at all times. This led to the drastic decrease in goal scoring from the mid-80s to the 2003–04 season.
How the salary cap ere has affected scoring
The 2004–05 NHL season was canceled after the NHL and the player’s association couldn’t agree to terms on a CBA. Eventually when they were able to come to an agreement, there were significant changes made. The main change of course was the introduction of a hard salary cap, but league parity wasn’t the only thing the NHL was keen on introducing.
For the reasons stated above, goal scoring had been on a decline, technically since the 1981–82 season, but especially since the 1985–86 season. Obviously fans like to see goals so the NHL did a number of things to appease them.
First, they made the neutral zone smaller and the offensive zones larger. This makes for more space in the offensive zones, easier for an attacking team to keep the puck in the offensive zone, more time spent in the offensive zones in general.
Second, they removed the two line pass rule. When I was a kid playing NHL 2004, they gave you the option to have two line passes called and I never knew what that meant. The two line pass rule forbade anyone from passing out of their zone to the far side of the centre line. Removing that rule allowed for more stretch passes and just a faster, more volatile game in general.
Third, they seriously cracked down on penalties like hooking and holding, essentially ending what was called the clutch and grab era. Players were allowed to skate more freely which again, made the game faster and more volatile.
We have been on a steady trend upward since the 2015–16 NHL season, but the trend upward actually starts immediately after the lockout. We are now a full goal per game more than we were at the start of the lockout.
At the time of writing there are about 6.31 goals being scored per game in the NHL. This is another significant rise from last year. If it were to stay that high it would be the first year since the 1993–94 season that it was that high.
How the future projects
Looking at the graph of the past, it would be pretty easy to say that average goals will likely keep increasing until either goaltending changes again or the NHL decides too many goals are being scored and changes the rules.
Goaltending has become even more about simply blocking more space with teams favouring very tall goalies now. A tall goalie playing from the butterfly position takes up more of the top of the net, which has always been the weakness of the butterfly.
There has been research recently though, into the effect playing the butterfly style has on the body. It is very hard on the hips. Maybe that force will drive a new style or invention that ends up making goalies even better.
Does anyone have any thoughts on what drove the changes in goal scoring rate? Especially the spike in World War II and the extreme voltatility in the early years. If so please let us know in the comments. I’d love to hear them.
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