There are a number of reasons for the Edmonton Oilers slow start to the 2023–24 season, with many areas of the team struggling, enough that Coach Jay Woodcroft was fired. The Oilers have had some successes as well, their game has shown a lot of positives, and their record is finally starting to even out.
The best player in the world, and the Oilers captain, Connor McDavid, has been a big part of both those struggles and successes, somewhat mirroring the team. McDavid’s scoring was way down to start the season, before even being forced out of the lineup due to injury. McDavid clearly did his best to fast track his recovery, even coming back while still visibly dealing with some adverse effects.
Like the Oilers, McDavid has come back into form, looking as dynamic as ever, and starting to produce more in line with his usual, spectacular rate. Down 10 points to current leader Nikita Kucherov, and with 60 games remaining for the Oilers, we asked our readers where McDavid will finish in the overall scoring race by season’s end.
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McDavid will surely be in the top three
Kucherov leads the league with 39 points through 23 games, but there are a number of players between him and McDavid. This impressive selection of players contains some of the world’s best, including superstar defencemen Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar, regular top 10 scorers David Pastrnak and Artemi Panarin, as well as ascending perennial MVP candidates in Jack Hughes and Elias Pettersson. Tied with McDavid are Oilers teammate Leon Draisaitl and Colorado Avalanche duo of Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen.
In other words, with scoring on the rise and save percentages on the decline, the league is seeing a rise of high scoring players. McDavid might well have a number of seasons remaining as the league’s clear cut leading scorer, but not every season will be a new career high. Though fans might be defensive of the mantle of “the best player”, one day when the crown resides elsewhere McDavid will still be among the best, and still capable of leading his team to a championship.
McDavid finishing fourth in league scoring in a down year is a comedic example of his dominance and the expectations therein. In a vacuum it’s not ideal, but a strong playoff performance for McDavid would be the far more important measurement in appraising his play.
Being second or third not an option
These were not popular options among voters, but the thinking here is giving deference to selected members of the current top scorers. Jack Hughes leads in points per game amping the group at 1.76, Kucherov second at 1.67, both significantly ahead of third place Cale Makar at 1.55, and McDavid at 1.45 heading into December 2.
The expectation would surely be that McDavid gets closer to his 1.87 points per game rate of last season. Last season Draisaitl finished second in points per game at 1.60, showing how impressive both Kucherov and Jack Hughes have been this season. Kucherov is one of the few to steal a Hart trophy during the McDavid era, and Jack Hughes is a popular choice to be the next to do so. Hughes is on pace to finish with 136 points, and Kucherov with 135, and McDavid has only surpassed 140 points in a season once in his career, last season.
Fans strongly believe McDavid will be first
In the end the vote was not close, an overwhelming majority of votes in favour of McDavid continuing to do what he has always done, shatter expectations and redefine offensive excellence in the modern game. It is a steep ask to expect McDavid to turn his season around on a dime, and start replicating his career season, but with scoring on the rise league wide McDavid’s numbers should be subject to a bump as well.
On top of this, the Oilers have gotten a good look into the abyss already this season, and the whole team will have to be fighting for their playoff lives for the remainder of the season. McDavid, no doubt, will be leading this charge, a most unwelcome reality for opposing teams. Over the years, each time we’ve asked if McDavid can achieve some mark of personal scoring prowess, for example last season when the question was whether or not he could score 50 goals, McDavid has delivered. Why would it be any different now?
At the end of the day there is more to hockey, and to McDavid’s game, than points. Surely the captain would take three Stanley Cups over another three Hart Trophies or five Art Ross Trophies. McDavid won’t reign supreme forever, but this summer Oilers President Jeff Jackson clearly outlined his long term vision for the team, pairing McDavid and Draisaitl into their next contracts, giving the team 10 or more years of potential championship expectations. Instead of the “cup or bust” narrative, which from the players is quaint, or exactly how you’d want them to feel, the truth is much more in line with an understanding of the bigger picture.
The first step in this long term plan is to convince both McDavid and Draisaitl to re-sign with the team. The surest way to achieve this is to build a sustainably competitive team around them, something that was very much in doubt amidst this early season’s losing ways. It was and is a lot of existential weight to bear, but the Oilers appear to be on their way back up the standings. Powered by McDavid’s 14 points in his last five games, there is currently little doubt that both he and the Oilers will find a way to erase their poor opening quarter season.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
