Another loss, this time to the Nashville Predators, has the Edmonton Oilers reeling with a 2–7–2 record to start the season. With each loss the optics become a bit worse, enough perhaps to turn the steadiest hearts across Oil Country into rash lines of questioning. As the clouds over Oil Country darken we polled our readers.
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What’s to blame for the Oilers abysmal start to the season?
It’s not bad luck
The smallest, and perhaps most rational, percentage of voters are chalking the Oilers dreadful start to equally dreadful luck. There are some statistical rationalisations to back this hypothesis up, as the Oilers grade quite well across several metrics such as expected goals for percentage at even strength, but sit 29th in the league in PDO.
PDO (which does not stand for anything) is calculated by adding a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage together, and is often referred to as a luck based stat. Somewhere between the ringing of a Bouch-bomb off the post and a bad bounce going against the team, things undoubtedly have not been going the Oilers way.
The Oilers rank seventh in shots for per game and 12th in shots against per game, yet a 24th ranked shooting percentage and a 31st ranked save percentage have the team sitting 22nd in goals for per game and 30th in goals against. It does make the current struggles of the team a bit more baffling, as they don’t seem to be getting outplayed in general.
A few games ago the voting here might have been more slanted towards “bad luck” as the answer, but circumstances have whittled away at the confidence across Oil Country. Surely these high tensions and growing anxieties are present from within the organisation, if only to an extent, a foreboding thought for continuity.
What is Woodcroft doing?
At just 13% percent of the popular vote, pinning the issues on the coaching staff is not the prevailing thought for many. While the concept of a coaching change is a question that more and more onlookers are asking, our voters clearly don’t share the opinion that this is the main issue.
Though the Oilers started slow last season, with a fairly unremarkable record headed into January 2023, this poor stretch has been much worse. Still, on the back half of each of the last two seasons Woodcroft has turned the Oilers around. Surely the low percentage of votes has something to do with a belief that Woodcroft will be able to do so once more, or at least some deference due to the Oilers strong results since Coach Jay Woodcroft’s taking over the bench.
On the other hand, there are a number of issues plaguing the team that it is difficult to absolve coaching from. While the Oilers do seem to have some strong results defensively, perhaps measured in overall expected goals, there have been many gaffes, as shown with a concerningly poor rate of high danger chances given up. Most of all, the penalty kill is struggling once again, falling short of last season’s already weak performance. With a number of key penalty kill specialists on the roster, and an offseason to address the issue, these results are troubling.
At some point the Oilers will be forced to make a change, should the losing continue. Woodcroft has shown that his promotion to head coach was well earned, and that he might be deserving of another chance to be a head coach in the future. At the same time changing coaches is often easier to do than changing players.
The Oilers have had a rotation of coaches, never quite stabilising despite a lot of talent and pedigree across the group. This might drive some unease, leading to a reluctance to pin the issues on yet another coach.
There is another, more political issue at play. With Jeff Jackson taking on the role of President of Hockey Operations and General Manager Ken Holland in the last season of his deal, there is some thought that a succession plan might be in place. While this season is at stake, the future beyond this season might be affected by a coaching change.
Goaltending has always been an issue
Finishing second in our poll is the thought that the main issue with the Oilers is their goaltending. Ranking 31st in save percentage across the league, it’s hard to argue that the Oilers duo has shone. Nearly a quarter of the votes in our poll is significant, though perhaps even more so when one considers that casting such decisive blame on goalies is often taboo.
Jack Campbell might have regained his starting role after a disappointing start to his Oilers career last season, but the tandem as a whole has been worse. For his part, there is surely doubt and regret growing in the minds across Oil Country, that Campbell might become a cap curse, enough that his contract might become untenable. Ultimately, the Oilers might have to give up assets to move off of his salary.
Meanwhile, after at least three consecutive seasons of shattering expectations, Stuart Skinner is facing the first rough patch of his NHL career. Skinner has done well to move up the ranks over the years, but he might still not be as ready for the starting role as his supporters would have hoped. There should be several good years of play in Skinner’s future, but the current situation clearly hasn’t been enough.
Still, the duo does have more upside than they’ve been able to show this season, and there is legitimate hope that they will turn things around soon. Similar to the rest of the lineups issues, the results have been surprising because the ability is present.
Defence is to blame
With over half the popular vote this message rings loud. Clearly, our voters told us they think that the main issue with the Oilers has been their defensive play. It does create something of a paradox within the context of the Oilers other potential issues, perhaps absolving the goalies of some of their perceived share of the blame.
Already there have been some baffling blunders, untimely mistakes, and sub optimal play that stick out over these first 10 games. These optics make defenders easy targets, especially when the source of the Oilers struggles have been so elusive. There might be some added pressure here because of the Oilers widely discussed system changes. As most of the early games have resulted in losses, questions surrounding the team’s defence are front of mind.
The volume of votes here might come from a wider perspective, though. Perhaps many had already been questioning the Oilers personnel, from a defensive standpoint. Regardless, things have gone poorly enough that it is hard to be content with much concerning the Oilers play so far this season. Many fans wrote in their own answer, choosing all of the above to our poll question, echoing that very sentiment.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
