We’re at an odd time to be talking about it, but seeing that Jack Roslovic is a UFA next year, should the Edmonton Oilers bring him back? He has been a solid presence, and at a $1.5M contract, is doing more than his fair share. This means that, if the Oilers want him back next year, they will probably need to give him a raise. So should the Oilers bring back Roslovic next year?
The first question is always, can the Oilers afford to bring Roslovic back? Well we can’t know that unless we know how much he costs.
What a Roslovic contract could look like
We are at a tricky point in time with NHL contracts, we are in a re-evaluation period. The cap is set to rise a whopping $8.5M next year, an 8.9% increase, which is the largest increase in cap since the 2008–09 season. The cap also rose last year by $7M AND is set to go up again next year by $9.5M! For that reason, the standard for how much a player is going to be payed is changing rapidly.
The general rule of thumb is that a player is worth $1M for every 10 points they scored. The cap had been loitering around $80M for about six years, but $83.5M is where it left off before it started rising quickly. If you do the quick math using $83.5M as the original cap and $113.5M as the new cap (what it will be in two short years), that means the new rule of thumb would be $1.36M per 10 points. So let’s just say $1.3M, $60,000 is nothing to a guy like me anyways.
Roslovic is scoring at a 43 point pace this year, and has pretty well been scoring at that pace for his entire NHL career. So at that new standard his contract would be for about $5.5M. I’m sure you all just spit your morning coffee all over your screen in disgust at that price. It seems like a lot of money for Roslovic, but with the new cap I think we are all going to have to get used to some new salaries. With the old standard, Roslovic’s salary would be about $4M and he was already getting that in 2022–23 and 2023–24. So honestly I wouldn’t be surprised to see a two-year x $5.5M, or a four-year x $5M contract.
Oilers cap space for next season
Now that we know how much it might cost to bring Roslovic back, can the team afford him? Honestly, it seems to me like if a GM wants something they always make the numbers work somehow, but let’s look at it anyways. Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Trent Frederic, Mattias Janmark, Josh Samanski, Matt Savoie, Evan Bouchard, Darnell Nurse, Ty Emberson, and Tristan Jarry all have contracts staying consistent next year.
Vasily Podkolzin is getting a $2M raise, Jake Walman a $3.6M raise, and Mattias Ekholm is taking $2M less. So that’s $3.6M added to the cap.
I think Adam Henrique and Max Jones get shown the door. Jason Dickinson, Kasperi Kapanen, Colton Dach, Curtis Lazar, Roby Jarventie, Connor Murphy, and Connor Ingram get brought back, but aren’t likely to get significant raises or drops. So that’s $4M removed from the cap.
As well, not all of those forwards are needed on the team at the same time, so some money is saved while those players are in the minors. So essentially they get the entire $8.5M cap raise to spend on new business.
They are already getting Roslovic at $1.5M, which is a pretty sweet deal for a 20-goal scorer. A $4M raise could be very easily bourne by the $8.5M cap raise. More important than bringing Roslovic is getting your hands on an above average, consistent goalie, whoever he may be. If the Oilers could get Roslovic to sign an extension for $4.5M instead of $5.M5, then they would have $5M to spend on a goalie—more since one of Jarry and Ingram wouldn’t be needed.
Roslovic’s offensive potential
The last question is, should the Oilers bring Roslovic back to the team? I personally think the answer is a resounding yes, and here’s why:
Currently Roslovic is one of the most economically efficient players on the Oilers; while I don’t have access to the entire league salary data in a pleasant format, I suspect he is one of the most efficient scorers in the league, especially if you only consider player making a similar amount of money to him. While I have just been discussing a raise that would certainly make him a lot less efficient, I think there is an argument for him making less money than I have suggested.
Roslovic has bounced around a lot and has only been paid according to that aforementioned rule-of-thumb on one contract. This could have to do with the fact that his defensive numbers are not great. He’s -8 so far this season, and is -45 in his career. His GF% has never been higher than 50%.
The thing I love about Jack Roslovic though, is that he just has a knack for scoring. Even more than that, he does it at 5v5 play. Two nights ago he plotted two, the second of which was one of the most unlikely goals I’ve ever seen. He was surrounded by three Utah Mammoth players as the puck rebounded off the crossbar way up into the air and landed in front of him. He quickly played it to his stick, slapping it in from a terrible angle, and scored on a shot that the goalie probably should have saved.
Roslovic trails only Max Jones in 5v5 goals/60, but Jones hasn’t played enough games for those numbers to be trusted—just over 100 minutes. 5v5 scoring is something the Oilers are decent at, but sometimes it feels like they rely too much on their power play. A full season of 5v5 goals from Roslovic would be a welcome bump.
While his defence is not great I think he has untapped offensive potential. He can be a better player than we have seen from him in the NHL so far. If that doesn’t convince you, consider that he is one of few middle-six winger who has seen success with the Oilers and, for some reason, players like that are few and far between. At only 29 years old, Roslovic is worth taking a relatively small risk on.
Interested in joining our writing or social media team? Apply here.
The knock on Roslovic that you didn’t talk about is his lack of consistancy when he’s isn’t in a contract year or is in the playoffs. he tends to go invisible for long streatches