The Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings are set to begin their fourth straight first round match up on Monday night. In the 2025 edition of the series, the Kings will start with home ice advantage. Compared to 2025, almost all of the central figures are back, although some slight tweaks could make a big difference.
Kuemper to start the playoffs once again
One significant difference is that the Kings have a new starting goalie in Darcy Kuemper. Game one will be Kuemper’s first playoff start since he won the Stanley Cup with the Colorado Avalanche in 2022. The Avs dispatched the Oilers in the Western Conference Final. Kuemper only played half a game, giving up three goals on 15 shots, with the Oilers scoring off two high glove shots and a lateral pass.
Three regular seasons have passed since then, with Kuemper spending two with the Washington Capitals. He came in as their clear cut starter, playing 57 games in the first year, before being relegated to the backup role with 33 games behind Charlie Lindgren in 2023–24, posting a .909 sv% and .890 sv% in those two respective seasons.
Kuemper has regularly dealt with injury problems, missing at least five days twice this year. More significatly could be the eye injury he suffered in the 2022 playoffs against Nashville. He reportedly had to relearn how to track a puck, and seems to finally be finding his groove since returning to the Kings for a second stint.
Kuemper’s stats this season
Finding his groove is putting it lightly. In the public model from Evolving Hockey, Kuemper ranked fourth in GSAx, finishing at +29.45 GSAx in 50 games. Kuemper was also extremely consistent, only giving up four or more goals five times in 50 appearances.
In past years, that would be downplayed by the fact that the Kings would play the 1-3-1, and insulate their goalies. But this year, Head Coach Jim Hiller opened up their play slightly, leading to a more exposed environment.
Using Clear Sight Analytics’ private model, which includes 32 different data points on each shot, Kuemper was even more impressive. The Saskatoon native finished fifth in save percentage above expected and first in cumulative Goals Saved Above Expected in their model, which namely factors in pre shot puck movement, traffic, and defensive pressure. (Side note, if the Oilers do get to David Rittich, he was fifth worst is GSAx per CSA.)
What’s an upside for Edmonton?
There is good news for Oilers fans on the offensive front. In Clear Sight’s model, they were the top ranked team in High and Mid Percentage scoring chances per game with 13.84.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Kings were tied for third best with 10.68 High and Mid chances against per game, and were also fifth best with a 80.4 SV% on those same chances.
During one data point mid-March, the Oilers with second in high danger expected goals at 5v5, breakding down to fourth off the rush, eighth inzone and generated the post on the power play.
The Oilers offence will need to produce
The big question in the Kings end of the ice comes down to the Oilers’ health, specifically of the big duo of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The two are offensive cheat codes. McDavid was first in the league with 38.0 expected assists, which led to 41 actual assists on high danger chances. Draisaitl was eighth, with 21.60 expected assists leading to 17 actual assists on high danger chances, likely due to Viktor Arvidsson’s and Vasili Podkolzin’s lack of finishing touch during the 2024–25 campaign.
Expand those numbers to include mid danger changes and McDavid had 45 assists and 44.89 expected assists, while Draisaitl had 20 assists and 27.30 expected assists. When you include goal scoring, McDavid was second with 73.04 expected points off shots and primary assists, while Draisaitl was fourth with 67.74.
So Kris Knoblauch has two nuclear weapons at his disposal to generate offensive chances. They still need to get the puck past Kuemper. The Oilers only beat the Kings once, in a 1–0 win in January.
The only goal scored in that game came at 5v5, with Draisaitl bullying his way into a turnover before feeding Darnell Nurse for a one-timer. Kuemper was able to push across to his glove side to make the first save, but had sold out, leaving McDavid with an open net.
How to beat Kuemper
Kuemper is extremely good at getting his 6’5″ frame low and wide without giving up any holes, particularly when the puck gets in tight. This could make for an unproductive series from Zach Hyman, particularly in his power play office around the crease.
When he does sprawl out, there is a tendency to clear his posts, so if the Oilers’ attackers can have the patience to stick handle behind them, they’ll likely find more success rather than quickly shooting contested rebounds. This is particularly noticeable when Kuemper is trying to go back to his blocker post, where he ends up reaching with his paddle because he doesn’t get a full rotation to that side.
He does seem to be vulnerable to the top corners if the puck comes out to around the hashmarks type depth. To build on that, Kuemper can get caught chasing the puck if there’s a late pass to the shooter in the middle of the ice, making him vulnerable to a second pass or a deke. The Oilers seemed to lean glove side on these chances, but the key will be to get these shots up and to the corners.
Every goalie is vulnerable to traffic. At his size, Kuemper is less bothered than someone of a smaller stature. However, the former Red Deer Rebel tends to lean glove side through screens, which can leave blocker side open for screened shots and passes.
Stuart Skinner and his recent play
You don’t need me to tell you that Stuart Skinner has had an underwhelming 2024–25 season so far. He finished below .900 for the first time in his career, and went through extreme highs and extreme lows. The overall stats netted out to a +7 GSAx per Evolving Hockey, but nobody can argue that he has had a contistency issue.
While the Oilers will be seeing their fifth different goalie in four years in Kuemper, Skinner is set to take on the Kings for the third year in a row. I’m expecting the Kings to attack in very similar ways as they did in 2024. L.A. would attack Skinner with post play, screens and lateral plays, which are sequences that Oilers fans would be familar with causing issues for their starting netminder.
Anecdotally, I would argue that the post play is one of the few areas where Skinner has been better than he was in 2023–24. While no goalie has absolutely none, Skinner has given up less of the horrendous looking goals from dead angles. He can leave his post early which can leave the short side exposed, this could be an area that the Kings attack.
Lateral plays will be a big area of focus in this series. Skinner visually has been moving worse than last year, showing up repeatedly on the goals against. There’s not a whole lot I can add to the way that Kevin Woodley broke it down on the PDOCast, but I do think there is some hope for it to be managable during this series.
The first is the that Skinner’s unfortunate concussion actually gave him a reset. Beyond the obvious physical rest, it looks like he has sharpened some technical details with the extra practice time that comes to the return to sport protocol. He has noticeably narrowed his stance, while also keeping his upper body more upright and his gloves presented forward to the puck. This results in smoother rotations and an ability to transition between directions. To my eye, the best he’s moved all year was in his last two starts.
Another benefit of the improved stance is that he seems to be tracking to his gloves better, controlling rebounds in those starts with a calmness that hasn’t been consistent since the Dallas series.
How the Kings will attack
Two other statistical notes on the Kings attack: Steven Valliquette noted on Real Kyper and Bourne that Jim Hiller has made the Kings less shoot-happy, with the team having a tendency to pass off rebounds, remarking that there would likely be a goal where Skinner was sprawled out after such a pass. Based on this, Skinner controlling rebounds and the defence controlling the net front will be paramount.
A perhaps more sigificant note is that the Kings offence matches up rather will for Skinner. During his March 11 appearance on the PDOCast, Woodley noted that the Kings were 30th in overall expected offence, and 32nd in east-west movement based offence since January 1. Those two factors could allow Skinner to continue to find his groove.
Overall keys to winning
The Oilers are third best in Clear Sight’s model in Scoring Chance differential at +2.54 chances per game, meaning they should be able to carry the play against the Kings. However, the Kings are fourth best in shooting percentage differential, combining to score and stop 2.7% more frequently than their opponents on scoring chances. Darcy Kuemper had an elite year, but is vulnerable to over commiting to positions, leaving him open to back door passes, rebounds and changes of direction.
The Oilers key contributors of Draisaitl, McDavid, Bouchard, Ekholm and Hyman were all in the top nine of high and medium chance differential and expected goal differential per CSA. Ekholm being likely to miss the series is a massive loss for Edmonton, but just like the first three times, the key will be Edmonton getting enough stops and their stars being freed up to make plays. Sticking with Stuart Skinner was a risk from Oilers management, but the hope is he can be good enough to survive behind the top heavy skater group.
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