At our last Oil Check, the Edmonton Oilers had taken top spot of the Pacific Division from the Vegas Golden Knights, although they dropped two games in a row closing out that eight-game stretch.
However, Oilers fans were still optimistic given the team’s good play leading up to the 4 Nations break, and figured that first loss after was just the team shaking off two weeks of rust.
The Oilers decided to prove everyone wrong, dropping another three straight games. Granted, it was to some pretty good teams in Washington, Tampa Bay, and Florida, but still not great when you realize this was the longest losing streak since December 2021.
The Oilers seemed to turn it around a bit with a 3–1 win in Carolina to close out their road trip, but then played an absolute stinker upon their return home, losing 6–2 to the Anaheim Ducks.
The team would salvage the home stand with back-to-back wins over the Montreal Canadiens and the Dallas Stars, with the latter looking like the Oilers maybe found their mojo back and that deadline acquisitions Jake Walman and Max Jones were well made moves, before losing to the lowly Buffalo Sabres on the road.
Overall, the Oilers went 3–5 this stretch, the worst eight game period for them this year. They were outscored 31–22 as well and find themselves closer to third place in the division than first.
So what wrong? Here are some of the questions plaguing Oil Country these days.
Maybe we should’ve gotten a goalie
Heading into the deadline, Oilers fans had targeted a goalie as one of, if not the, biggest needs for the team. Management felt different and did not acquire another goaltender, meaning that the already hot spotlight on Stuart Skinner got even hotter.
Perhaps Stuart Skinner putting up a 0.926 save percentage against Montreal in the game the day before the trade deadline led them to believe he was the guy, or perhaps there really wasn’t anyone that would be better available.
Regardless, outside of that Montreal game, Skinner hasn’t exactly proven his critics wrong. If anything, he has proven them right.
Besides that game against Montreal, the last time Skinner had a save percentage above 0.900 in a game was February 4 against St. Louis, when he had a 0.909. That was nine games ago.
During this eight game stretch, Skinner has 0.883 save percentage, putting him 43rd in the league. Granted, if you make it just for goalies who have played at least three games during this period, he shoots all the way up to…29th.
That’s just straight up not good enough. The Oilers are 30–2–2 when their goaltender puts up at least a 0.900. Sure, having good goaltending means wins, so is that really that big of a deal? Well that is 34 of the Oilers 64 games. Having sub par goaltending half the time isn’t acceptable, especially for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations.
Skinner got the vote of confidence and has rewarded the team with an 0.840 and 0.870 save percentage in the two games since the deadline. If he doesn’t shape up soon, the Oilers might not even make it out of the first round, let alone come close to the Stanley Cup.
Deadline bets looking good so far
The Oilers made two trades leading up to the deadline, acquiring forwards Trent Frederic and Max Jones from Boston and defenceman Jake Walman from San Jose.
Frederic is currently injured and it is not clear when he will return to play. However, Max Jones, who many looked at as a throw in, has played in three games and looked to provide a bit of a spark on the fourth line. His 10 hits are sixth on the team during this eight-game stretch despite him only playing in three of those games. Unsurprisingly, he has the highest hits per 60 on the team.
Jake Walman was the big get, and made an immediate impression in his first game against Dallas, with a beautiful alley-oop assist on Zach Hyman’s goal, followed up with a massive hit against Mikko Rantanen (who was also plowed by Jones’ clearly the Oilers acquisitions weren’t too happy about Rantanen hogging the trade deadline spotlight). Walman was a +3 and played 24:40, second only to Darnell Nurse.
While his performance against Buffalo was nothing to write home about, he still had positive metrics across the board.
Oilers have been in need of a defenceman to replace Cody Ceci/Philip Broberg, and Jake Walman looks to be that guy. He may not be a defence first guy that many people think the Oilers need, but he is a legitimate top-four defenceman who is at least competent in his own zone.
Is coaching an issue?
Kris Knoblauch has mostly avoided criticism during his tenure as head coach, given the team’s performance over that time. However, this recent stretch has brought his coaching decisions into question.
One of the biggest questions is with respect to Jeff Skinner. Skinner has only played in four of the last eight games and averaging just 11:56 per game. He has just one goal in those four games, but ice-time has to play a part in that.
Skinner’s 11 goals are seventh on the team, so he is still producing a bit. Since the calendar flipped to 2025, Skinner has five goals and nine points in 18 games, putting him seventh in goals and 10th in points on the team despite playing five to nine games less than anyone in front of him. He is tied with Draisaitl for second on the team in plus-minus as well with a +5.
So the refusal to play him is head scratching at best and when the Oilers were purportedly looking for a top-six scoring forward it is even more confusing that they wouldn’t be trying Skinner in that spot still.
Other questions come to mind with Knoblauch as well, such as the fact that he goes back to the McDrai well constantly like many an Oilers coach before him.
Whether or not these or any other criticisms of Knoblauch are warranted or accurate, when the team is looking like a shell of itself, at least some of the blame is going to lie with the coach.
McDavid slowly returning to form
Our last Oil Check had us questioning whether or not something was up with Connor McDavid, given he was looking simply good rather than superhuman.
McDavid looks to have started getting back to the McDavid we all love and know, scoring 11 points in the last eight games, just one less than Leon Draisaitl. He has now moved into fourth place in the scoring race with 82 points in 58 games, meaning he is now back on pace to cross 100 points, something that somehow looked like it may not happen a few weeks ago.
If McDavid is on his way back up, then that would help cover up a lot of the team’s issues, as has been the case in the past. Plus, with Leon Draisaitl playing an MVP season, getting an MVP level McDavid heading into the playoffs would make the already scary duo a scarier one.
Can the Edmonton turn it around?
The Oilers have road games against the New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders, and the New York Rangers coming up before a four -ame homestand against Utah, the Winnipeg Jets, Seattle Kraken, and a rematch against Dallas, followed by another game the next night against Seattle.
That’s three playoff teams and four non-playoff teams, although both the Rangers and Utah are in the wild card race still.
This is the dangerous time of year, where the teams who aren’t making the playoffs are playing more loose in their spoiler roles, while teams on the hunt are playing desperate playoff level hockey already trying to get as many valuable points as they can. Combine that with the Oilers’ recent struggles and this could be a recipe for disaster.
Granted, right now the playoff cut off appears to be about 90 points, meaning the Oilers are just 12 points away, a total that is certainly possible during this eight-game stretch, although unlikely given their current play. But if the Oilers can shake off whatever it is that is bothering them right now, then the next Oil Check could be right back to being about winning the Pacific Division. If they can’t, then it may be about whether or not there is a chance they could be in danger of falling into a wild card position, should the coach be fired and should the Oilers call up Olivier Rodrigue because he can’t possibly be a worse option in net at this point.
Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire
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