Ten days ago, after a poor showing in the 4 Nations round-robin game against the United States, Jordan Binnington was likely one of the most hated men in Canada. Fast forward a week, and he’s now being hailed as a national hero, illustrating once again how quickly narratives can shift in hockey. Such is the reality when you backstop your country to a championship over a longstanding rival that threatens both your sovereignty and your position as the world’s premier hockey power.
Is Jordan Binnington a trade candidate?
Coming out of the break, Darren Dreger speculated on whether St. Louis Blues General Manager Doug Armstrong might consider selling high on his starting goaltender:
“Here is my trade speculation…”
— TSN Hockey (@TSNHockey) February 21, 2025
In the @rayanddregs podcast, @rayferraro21 & @DarrenDreger wonder if – given the Blues’ willingness to consider other trade options–they would entertain interest in Jordan Binnington after his #4Nations performance: https://t.co/vpc94jBKNY pic.twitter.com/GAAHKFkWqL
“As we’re having this conversation, we’re recording this episode on Friday, I get a text from a club exec, non-related to the St. Louis Blues, saying ‘what do you think the percentage is that Army (Doug Armstrong) parlays this Binnington success?’
And then he answers the question ‘99.9%.’ And I’m like, ‘ooh, okay.’ I mean, hey, Jordan Binnington has a modified no-trade clause. I don’t know what the depth of the St. Louis Blues goaltending is in a longer-term scenario, but if you’re willing to listen on your captain, Brayden Schenn, which we know Armstrong has been doing, there are teams out there that could use the kind of playoff goaltending we saw in the championship final from Jordan Binnington.”
I’ve spoken about the Oilers’ goaltending needs before, but Binnington is a name I hadn’t previously considered. That being said, where there’s smoke, there’s fire; Armstrong has never been afraid to make bold moves, and if Binnington is on the market, could he be a fit in Edmonton as an upgrade on Stuart Skinner or Calvin Pickard?
Comparing Jordan Binnington with Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard
Jordan Binnington first made a name for himself in 2018–19, when, as a rookie, he put up remarkable numbers to lead the St. Louis Blues to their first-ever Stanley Cup. In 32 games, he achieved a 24–5–1 record with a .927 SV% and 1.89 GAA. He was absolutely stellar.
Since then, however, his numbers have steadily declined each year. In 2022–23, he hit a low point with an .894 SV%, before rebounding to a .913 SV% in 2023–24. This season, unfortunately, he’s dipped again, posting an .898 SV% through his first 40 games.
Save Percentage: Binnington versus Skinner versus Pickard
Here are the trio’s numbers and how they’ve trended year-over-year in the regular season:
And here’s how Skinner and Binnington’s numbers compare in the playoffs (Pickard is excluded as he has only started two playoff games in his career):
From the outset, Binnington seems fairly comparable to Skinner and a clear upgrade on Pickard in the regular season. Alternatively, in the playoffs, it seems that Binnington has generally performed better than Skinner, apart from a rough 2019–20 campaign.
However, while save percentage can give us a quick look at how these goalies compare at a high level, it does not account for shot quality. A goalie facing a high volume of low-danger shots might have an inflated SV%, while another facing tougher chances could post a lower SV%, despite delivering stronger performances.
To account for this, we can look at Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), which measures how many goals a goaltender prevents relative to the quality of shots they face. A high GSAx means they’re outperforming expectations, while a negative GSAx suggests they’re allowing more goals than expected.
Goals Saved Above Expected: Binnington versus Skinner versus Pickard
Here is the year-over-year trend for the trio’s GSAx in the regular season (courtesy of Evolving-Hockey):
And here are the numbers for Skinner and Binnington in the playoffs (courtesy of Evolving-Hockey):
Skinner and Binnington’s numbers are strikingly similar. The former has performed marginally better in the regular season, while the latter has performed marginally better in the playoffs. These numbers also confirm that Binnington would be a tangible upgrade on Calvin Pickard at this stage in their respective careers.
Performance against top-10 teams: Binnington versus Skinner
One of my key criticisms of Skinner this season has been his showings against the league’s best. Here are how their numbers compare when facing top-10 teams by points percentage in 2024–25 (courtesy of NST):
| Player | Record | SV% | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington | 3–8–2 | 88.5 | -16.01 |
| Stuart Skinner | 2–8–3 | 87.0 | -9.15 |
Neither Binnington nor Skinner’s numbers against tough competition are flattering. In fact, Binnington may be performing even worse, allowing nearly twice as many expected goals despite a marginally higher save percentage. Simply put, both goalies have been sinking.
The “Clutch” Factor: Binnington versus Skinner
Lastly, I wanted to investigate a narrative surrounding Binnington that has become commonplace after his most recent international victory: he thrives in high-pressure situations. Does the data back it up? Here are Binnington and Skinner’s numbers in career NHL playoff elimination games (courtesy of NST):
| Player | Record | SV% | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington | 6–3–0 | 92.4 | -1.11 |
| Stuart Skinner | 8–2–0 | 91.3 | 4.77 |
Interestingly, despite Binnington’s reputation for stepping up in big moments, Skinner actually has a better record and a higher GSAx in elimination games. That said, Binnington is a champion—something that may be hard to quantify, and has the experience of winning a Game 7 of the Final on the road.
What does this all mean for the Edmonton Oilers?
Looking at the data, Binnington and Skinner have more in common than you’d expect. Both were rushed into a pressure-filled situation, had stellar rookie seasons, and saw their numbers decline as teams adapted to their style. Both have a tendency to let in soft goals, but can also raise their game when it matters. Both goaltenders have struggled this season against top teams, from both a save percentage and goals saved above expected perspective.
The one key difference? Jordan Binnington’s contract, which carries a $6M AAV until 2027 and an 18-team no trade list for the remainder of this season.
Given the Oilers’ cap constraints, they would be hard-pressed to fit him into the roster if the Blues insist on moving him at full cap hit. There is a chance Armstrong may be open to retention, as Binnington is only owed $11M in real dollars over the next two years.
However, if Binnington isn’t willing to waive his no-trade clause for Edmonton, that discussion becomes a non-starter. And without significant retention, I’m not sure that the Oilers should be willing to play ball.
So is Binnington the solution?
If the Edmonton Oilers are looking for a clear upgrade over Stuart Skinner, Binnington may not be the best option, as both goalies have comparable numbers and similar flaws. Depending on how much stock you put into Goals Saved Above Expected, one could argue that Binnington would be a downgrade on performance alone.
Alternatively, if the team is seeking a tandem goalie to replace Calvin Pickard and push Skinner for starts, Binnington could become a viable candidate. That said, given his contract and a potentially high asking price, Edmonton would be wise to exhaust all other options before considering this move. Unless Stan Bowman is convinced that Binnington is the missing piece to a Cup run, the Oilers might be better off letting another team take that gamble.
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