Once again the Edmonton Oilers have rounded into form after a sluggish fall, but the team is far from perfect. Undoubtedly there will be roster moves ahead to bolster the group, but a limited number of assets means that budgeting will be crucial. The most common areas that fans are hoping to upgrade is at right defence or in net, but there is one part of the lineup that is lacking beyond that. More specifically, Derek Ryan is proving that he can no longer win his minutes as a fourth line centre.
The issue with the fourth line
While the Oilers are stocked with centre depth, many of their options here are too vital to the lineup to consider using in a fourth line role. Quite simply, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are top line players no matter which team they are on, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins belongs in the top six, and Adam Henrique belongs in the top nine. It does beg the question of just how important a fourth line centre is, but the answer lies in the single goal that the Oilers were short of forcing Game 7 of last season’s Stanley Cup Final into overtime. Every little bit matters. Clearly there is an issue, as denoted by these line stats from moneypuck.com, minimum 40 minutes of icetime.
| Rank | Line | Minutes | Games | xGoals % |
| 1 | Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Brown | 42.7 | 14 | 69.40% |
| 2 | Hyman-Mcdavid-Draisaitl | 117.9 | 28 | 66.40% |
| 3 | Kapanen-Draisaitl-Podkolzin | 77.5 | 10 | 62.70% |
| 4 | Hyman-Mcdavid-Nugent-Hopkins | 204.2 | 21 | 61.70% |
| 5 | Arvidsson-Draisaitl-Podkolzin | 120.8 | 15 | 59.50% |
| 6 | Janmark-Henrique-Brown | 125.2 | 24 | 55.70% |
| 7 | Skinner-Henrique-Brown | 50.5 | 20 | 52.30% |
| 8 | Hyman-Nugent-Hopkins-Skinner | 44 | 6 | 43.70% |
| 9 | Skinner-Henrique-Janmark | 92.3 | 13 | 41.10% |
| 10 | Nugent-Hopkins-Mcdavid-Kapanen | 42.6 | 6 | 38.20% |
| 11 | Janmark-Ryan-Perry | 46.1 | 15 | 35.90% |
Every little bit matters on the trade market as well, and clearly the Oilers will have other priorities to balance as the deadline approaches. Already down some draft capital, the Oilers will need to be creative in addressing this issue. Trading for an overqualified option, perhaps like Jake Evans of the Montreal Canadiens, would be fantastic for the lineup, but is not likely the best allocation of resources. While a depth trade is a possibility, cheaper options should be in consideration, including a waiver claim or an internal promotion.
Ryan’s fit with the Oilers
Central to the story, clearly, is Derek Ryan. In the last season of his deal, it is clear that if Ryan is to return to the Oilers next season it would be at a discounted price. An unlikely NHL journey, from his size to his twisting development path as a member of the University of Alberta Golden Bears, to his late 20s NHL debut, to his long history of dominating possession in a depth role, to the long career that ensued, this is the first time that Ryan has not defied the odds as an NHLer. Some might bemoan the depth players on a roster, after all they are the less impactful, but Ryan is worthy of being a fan favourite and an underdog story.
The fact that Ryan is falling short as the regular fourth line centre does not mean that he cannot be a useful option for the Oilers. Over his tenure on the Oilers, Ryan has been used on the wing more often. The Oilers do have some decent winger depth, especially since Kasperi Kapanen’s unlikely effectiveness, meaning that Ryan or another waiver claim, perhaps like Jesse Puljujarvi, would be in tough to beat out Kapanen or Corey Perry for minutes. Ryan does have the positional versatility, which does separate him from other options, and is still able to pinch hit as a winger. To boot, he has had some strong playoff performances and often gets the best from his linemates.
Another rare lineage option
Funnily enough, the best internal option shares a rare similarity with Ryan, as Noah Philp is also a University of Alberta alumni. Philp’s unlikely NHL journey has just begun. As the sun sets on one Golden Bear, it might be time for it to rise on another. Like Ryan, Philp is a right handed centre and a potential contributor on the penalty kill, but the similarities begin to dissipate beyond this point. Philp is bigger, faster, and more physically imposing than Ryan. With all the tools to fit the role, Philp could offer even more if he continues to progress.
The issue with Philp is experience. After taking last season off, it had been a while since Philp was in top form. Even prior to that, Philp had only 75 games of AHL experience heading into this season. He might have been trending towards a full time NHL role prior to his season away, but certainly a big part of the equation is Philp equalling his previous level of play to begin with. Waiver exempt and needing experience, sending Philp to the minors to start the season, getting his game back into form in a bigger role, was a wise choice. Despite being an older prospect, at 26-years-old, Philp would still benefit from seasoning.
Philp will need more time
In a brief audition with the Oilers this season, Philp did not look out of place. It would be fair to expect that he can and will play better next time around, but the Oilers did get a solid look at him. While getting him playing time it’s important, it is not the only factor at play in the Oilers decision making process. The team want to preserve cap space as much as possible to accrue cap space leading up to the deadline. This will maximize the Oilers flexibility in the long run, but it does come at the cost of being measured in the short term.
To simplify this concept, even if the Oilers believe that Philp can be their playoff fourth line centre, it means that an outright promotion is unlikely before the trade deadline. Philp has shown increased production over his 2022–23 AHL pace, and has resumed control of vital roles with the Bakersfield Condors. Measuring his readiness for a depth centre role has less to do with production than it does for more offensive Oilers prospects, like Matthew Savoie or Matvey Petrov, but it is encouraging nevertheless. Philp is not tapering off or fading, and is as ready as ever to be an NHL player.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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