To say that the Edmonton Oilers’ season so far has been a roller-coaster would be an understatement. Heading in, the expectations were the highest they have been in the Connor McDavid era and for the most part of the first ten games, the product on the ice has not matched them. From poor defensive plays, to low scoring output and questionable goaltender interference calls, the Oilers’ faithful have been through it all.
Despite that, there have been some pleasant surprises along the way. I am here to make a case that Vasily Podkolzin has been one of the biggest standouts of this early season. Sure, he may not have much in the way to pass the eyeball statistics when looking only at his goals, assists and points. But his impact on the ice is certainly undeniable.
Who is Vasily Podkolzin?
Vasily Podkolzin was drafted 10th overall in the 2019 NHL Draft and had significant expectations entering the NHL. While his point production coming out of Russia was not amazing, it was his abilities that were sought after. His shot, speed, and physicality had scouts take note of his potential. His first season with the Vancouver Canucks was certainly respectable, putting up 26 points in 79 games.
However, his offensive output began to decline thereafter. With the crowded depth chart in Vancouver and the lack of living up to the top 10 draft pick expectations, he was traded to the Oilers in hopes of a fresh start.
Podkolzin passes the eye test
Given the Oilers’ shaky start to the season, Coach Kris Knoblauch has changed up the starting lineups a number of times. Podkolzin was no stranger to this as his positioning on the depth chart ranged from playing alongside Derek Ryan to receiving passes from Leon Draisaitl.
What I have come to appreciate about Podkolzin’s play is that regardless of the line he would find himself on, he continues to play the tough forechecking game. Heading into the season, I was under the impression that Viktor Arvidsson would fill in the role of a physical and gritty forward that the Oilers often needed. However, it has been Podkolzin who has seamlessly slid into this role better than anyone else on the team. As it currently stands, Podkolzin leads the Oilers in the hits department with 25 this season. Next closest: Darnell Nurse with 12 hits.
Podkolzin’s physicality is very evident in the play and is greatly appreciated on a team that has been getting routinely out-muscled. He is not afraid to skate hard into the corners, land a hit, and fight for the puck, giving the Oilers the opportunity to cycle the puck and set up in the offensive zone. More importantly, this allows the Oilers to keep the puck away from their own zone where they have allowed 3.50 goals against per game. As noted by the Natural Stat Trick, 76% of faceoffs during Podkolzin’s time on ice take place either in the offensive or the neutral zone.
Podkolzin’s stats speak for themselves
On a more analytical front, Podkolzin’s underlying metrics have been quite impressive. Despite putting up only one assist so far, when he is on the ice, his Corsi For percentage (measure of puck possession) is 67.45%. This is only a further testament to his play and the impact his physicality has on helping the Oilers maintain puck possession.
As per Natural Stat Trick, his percentage of goals for is 14.29%, which means that with him on the ice, the Oilers are being outscored in a ratio of one goal for and six goals against. However, his expected goals for and goals against tell a different story. As it currently stands, when Podkolzin plays, the Oilers are expected to have more goals for (5.45) than goals against (2.87). The discrepancy between the actual goals for/against and expected goals for/against can be at least in part explained by the poor puck luck Podkolzin has been getting with a PDO of 0.857.
His offensive contributions can also be noted by the high danger chances for percentage (HDCF%), which at 68.57% means that when he is skating on the ice, the team is much more likely to produce a dangerous scoring opportunity than to give up one.
Impressed by Podkolzin so far
On a team that has been lacking physicality and has needed a spark, Podkolzin’s presence has been a much needed addition. Despite his point totals consisting of only one assist, his strong and hard-hitting play has not gone unnoticed as most of the major statistical measures are speaking fondly of Podkolzin’s impact.
As the team continues to play together and find its chemistry, it will be interesting to see where on the depth chart that ultimately lands Podkolzin and the impact this will have on his underlying metrics over the longer term.
With the injury to Connor McDavid, it makes sense to utilize Podkolzin’s impressive performance as a top six forward, alongside Leon Draisaitl or Ryan-Nugent Hopkins at center. Helping either of the top two lines with strong forechecking presence will help to maintain the puck in the offensive zone, and give his linemates the opportunity to create more scoring chances for the team sitting dead-last in the Goals For per game.
Though we are very early into the season, I have certainly liked what I have seen from Podkolzin so far and I believe he has earned his keep on a team that has been playing musical chairs when it comes to their lineup combinations.
