On July 1, 2024, the Edmonton Oilers landed one of the better free agents available in former Carolina Hurricanes and Buffalo Sabres forward Jeff Skinner. With a contract that only lasts one year and worth $3M, it’s a low-risk, high-reward situation for the Oilers, kind of like Tyson Barrie back in 2020. What should we expect from Skinner this season? What does his history tell us? Will he be a good fit for Edmonton? Let’s dive a bit deeper into his time with Carolina and Buffalo and discuss!
Skinner’s stint with the Canes
Skinner was drafted by the Hurricanes in the first round—seventh overall—in 2010. He scored 50 goals and 90 points with the OHL’s Kitchener Rangers and made the Hurricanes out of camp. He had an excellent rookie year, scoring 31 goals and 63 points, which earned him the Calder Memorial Trophy for “Rookie of the Year.”
Skinner’s best season in Raleigh occurred in the 2016–17 season, where he tied his career best in points but scored 37 goals. As shown, he was a consistent 20 to 30-goal guy in a full season for the Hurricanes and could be counted upon to provide 50 to 60 points a season. He was a very, very good top-six forward.
However, despite his consistent offensive outputs, the Carolina Hurricanes never made it into the playoffs. The closest they came was in Skinner’s rookie year when they missed by two points. After a disappointing season in 2017–18, the Canes made it very clear they needed a change. General Manager Ron Francis and coach Bill Peters were sacked for Don Waddell and Rod Brind’Amour. After drafting Andrei Svechnikov with the second overall pick, the writing was on the wall for Skinner’s time with the Canes.
Skinner’s stint with the Sabres
Skinner was traded to Buffalo in early August 2019 in a package that included second —and third-round picks and a prospect in Cliff Pu.
Skinner’s first season was magnificent. He scored a career-high 40 goals and once again tied his career-high in points. That season saw the Sabres go on a 10-game win streak, and they were in playoff contention all year.
Here’s where things get ugly, though: Skinner extended with Buffalo on an eight-year deal worth $72M. That’s an average annual value of $9M. Even at the time, people knew that was a grotesque overpay, and things quickly faltered.
The Sabres brought in former Oilers coach Ralph Krueger as the new guy behind the bench. Under Krueger, Skinner scored 14 goals during the 2019–20 season, eight of which came in October. He scored six goals in the final four months of the regular season. Only collecting 23 points, it was his worst output by far.
Things didn’t get better. Skinner was somehow worse the next season, scoring seven goals in 53 games. It wasn’t helping that Krueger put him on the fourth line for whatever reason. The Sabres finished last that season. It was quite clear that Skinner was becoming one of the worst contracts possibly in league history.
The Sabres fired Krueger and brought in Don Granato. This is where things started to change for the better. Skinner, once again, tied his career high in points with 63, the fourth time he’s done that. He returned to his 30-goal self and saw his ice time increase dramatically.
The 2022–23 season was another huge step for him and the Sabres. Buffalo missed the playoffs by one point, and Skinner finally smashed his career-high in points with 82, 35 of which were goals. This past season, the team was riddled with injuries, and Skinner took a bit of a slump, scoring 24 goals, which led to his buyout.
Skinner’s strengths and weaknesses
First, I want to look into his macro stats before diving into his finishing stats, which is what Edmonton needs the most. Skinner has shown throughout his career that he can be an excellent play-driver on his line despite his slow speed. He’s an amazing finisher, which is huge for an Oilers team that finished third-last in the league in terms of finishing.
That is the worst among playoff teams, with the Hurricanes coming in as a close second. If the Oilers had an elite finisher against the Panthers, they probably would be hoisting the Cup. While Skinner does have issues defensively, he scores and produces enough offence to make up for it. Based on this, he’s an amazing fit for the Oilers. Here is Skinner’s expected goals-to-goal ratio throughout his career, from MoneyPuck:
| YEAR | TEAM | xG | GOALS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010–11 | CAR | 29.2 | 31 |
| 2011–12 | CAR | 22.2 | 20 |
| 2012–13 | CAR | 19.0 | 13 |
| 2013–14 | CAR | 26.0 | 33 |
| 2014–15 | CAR | 21.7 | 18 |
| 2015–16 | CAR | 30.1 | 28 |
| 2016–17 | CAR | 33.8 | 37 |
| 2017–18 | CAR | 28.4 | 24 |
| 2018–19 | BUF | 31.9 | 40 |
| 2019–20 | BUF | 16.2 | 14 |
| 2020–21 | BUF | 10.7 | 7 |
| 2021–22 | BUF | 29.4 | 33 |
| 2022–23 | BUF | 30.5 | 35 |
| 2023–24 | BUF | 22.8 | 24 |
It’s super interesting to note that even in Skinner’s bad offensive seasons, he was still mostly converting on the chances he was creating. This is a great sign. This shows that even if Skinner has his slumps, you can still expect him to score when he gets his opportunities/chances.
I think Skinner is going to be an amazing fit for this Oilers core. This feels like a much smarter bet and fit, like the Tyson Barrie situation four years ago. Barrie, of course, ended up extending, and I feel like a similar outcome will play out here. This team is a cup contender and in its prime.
For a guy like Skinner, who hasn’t even sniffed the playoffs in his career, why wouldn’t you stay? You compete for the Cup every year. You have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl as your centres. You can beef up your stats. And you’re back home in Canada. We’ll see how the season unfolds, but if there’s one thing I’m excited to see, it’s Jeff Skinner riding shotgun next to the big guns.
