With one game left in the regular season, the Pacific Division seeding remains unsettled, and with it, the potential first-round playoff opponents.
The Edmonton Oilers could finish anywhere from first in the division to the second wild card spot in the conference. Although they cannot finish in the first wild card spot as they cannot finish ahead of the Utah Mammoth without also finishing ahead of either the Anaheim Ducks or the Los Angeles Kings.
That also means that there are four teams that the Oilers could play: the Colorado Avalanche, Anaheim Ducks, Utah Mammoth, and the Los Angeles Kings. It also means that the Oilers could find themselves going through either the Pacific Division or the Central Division en route to the Western Conference Final. Talk about options.
So with that in mind, if the Oilers had the power to choose their route to a potential third straight Stanley Cup Final, what should their picks be?
Potential first-round opponents
I think everyone can agree that finishing in the second wild card and facing off against the Colorado Avalanche in the first round is the absolute worst scenario. Obviously, facing the best team in the league in the first round is not ideal, but then you remember that even if you slay that dragon, you then face either the third-best team in the league, the Dallas Stars, or the seventh-best Minnesota Wild.
Therefore, the first order of business is ensuring that the team finishes no worse than third in the Pacific Division.
In that case, which of the three options (Utah, Anaheim or L,A.) is the most ideal?
Head-to-head stats
If we look solely at the Oilers’ record against each of the remaining teams, then the Utah Mammoth would appear to be the choice. The Oilers went 2–0–1 against Utah this season, outscoring them 16–11.
The Oilers won two of their three games against Anaheim, outscoring them 16–12. Plus, the one loss was one where the team had a 4–1 lead going into the third period before the wheels fell off in the third, so for the most part, the Oilers did match up well against the Ducks.
The last possible option is the Los Angeles Kings, with whom the Oilers had a 1–1–1 record. The one win was an 8–1 shellacking, while the two losses were by just one goal, with one of those being in a shootout. So again, not actually that bad of a matchup as the record might suggest.
Realistically, the Oilers have fared well against all these opponents, although the only team they won their last matchup against was the Ducks.
Still, I would say Utah is the “best” matchup based on this, but Anaheim is certainly a close second.
How the teams are playing heading into the postseason
While a team’s regular season record obviously provides some insight into how good they are, that is looking over a seven-month span. A team that started really well in October could be floundering come April, and vice-versa.
The best team in the league in April has been the Los Angeles Kings, who have gone 6–0–1 this month to push themselves into the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Ducks have been the fourth worst team this month, with a 1–5–1 record, which has dropped them from the division leader to potentially looking at the last playoff spot in the west.
Utah has been average, with a 4–2 record, although that is still better than Edmonton’s 2–2–2 record.
It would therefore look like Anaheim is the team to face to start the playoffs, with their recent struggles.
Playoff “dangerousness”
There isn’t necessarily a way to quantify (or even properly describe) this criterion, but essentially what I mean is, notwithstanding the way the teams have played, which ones are still the most dangerous/scary ones to play in high-stakes games?
The Ducks, meanwhile, only have 10 players with any playoff experience whatsoever, with three of them having less than 10 games (one of whom is their backup goalie, Ville Husso). Sure, they do have two cup winners in Alex Killorn and John Carlson, but is that enough to overcome the inexperience of your top five scorers never having played a postseason game? While you can argue that youthful excitement can sometimes overcome that barrier, that doesn’t tend to be the case. I’d say the major scariness factor for the Ducks is Lukas Dostal, who certainly has the talent to steal a series.
Los Angeles is a team that is difficult to pin down in this area. On the one hand, the Oilers have beaten them four years in a row, and this is likely the worst version of any of those teams, so it seems like the Oilers have a pretty good handle on them.
On the other hand, this is Anze Kopitar’s farewell season, and what would be a better story than him getting one last long playoff run, starting with slaying the dragon that is the Edmonton Oilers?
The Kings also added Artemi Panarin at the deadline, so that adds to the star power in their favour. Not to mention, there are only three players on the Kings’ roster with no playoff experience, so they certainly fit the mould of a veteran team that can pull it together when it counts. There’s also the fact that they have Cody Ceci, which means if it goes to Game 7, then L.A. automatically gets the win.
For Utah, a part of their dangerousness comes from the fact that it is the first postseason appearance in franchise history (or if you don’t agree with the “expansion team” designation, it is still the first appearance in a new city in any event). These are fans that have never seen the playoffs, and you can bet they will be absolutely bonkers. After all, the last two expansion teams, Vegas and Seattle, both advanced past the first round in their first year making the playoffs.
The team itself also has the makings of a dangerous playoff foe, with six 20-goal scorers and eight players above 0.5 points-per-game. They have 16 players with playoff experience and four cup winners, although their only forwards with double-digit games are Kailer Yamamoto, Kevin Stenlund, Kevin Rooney, Alex Kerfoot, and Brandon Tanev. Therefore, the top end of the roster is lacking in that experience. However, that isn’t necessarily a death sentence, and Clayton Keller did win a gold medal at the Olympics this year, after all.
So chalk this as another one that favours wanting the Ducks, with Utah being a possible second best option.
Seeding
A factor that is unrelated to the teams themselves is where the Oilers would have to finish in order to play them.
This is most important with respect to Utah. In order for the Oilers to play Utah, the Oilers would have to win the Pacific Division. That means that the Oilers would then have home ice advantage for the first two rounds. That in and of itself would make Utah a preferred opponent.
With respect to the Kings or the Ducks, it is more likely that this would be a two-seed versus three-seed in the division matchup. However, home ice is still up for grabs in either of those possible series depending on how the final games go.
The final thing to consider with respect to seeding/who the Oilers play is:who would they play in the next round?
If the Oilers play Utah, they would then play the winner of Vegas and whichever of L,A. or Anaheim. Interestingly, Vegas actually did not win a single game against Anaheim this year, while they went 3–0–1 against the Kings. So, if the Ducks hold onto at least that third spot in the Pacific, then arguably the Oilers would want to face Utah on the basis that there is potentially a good chance they then face Anaheim in the second round.
If Vegas wins tonight, however, they secure first in the division and a date with Utah. But Vegas didn’t have a good record against Utah either, though, going 1–2 and being outscored 10–5. Therefore, assuming the Kings stays in the second wild card spot, then the Oilers finishing second in the division and playing Anaheim in the first round could also work, as it essentially flips the order of the above scenario, with the Oilers playing Utah in the second round while still having home ice.
In fact, Anaheim actually has a winning record this year against all of Utah, Vegas and L.A., so there is an argument that the Oilers would rather not face them in the first round so that they can get them in the second round.
Granted, Utah also had a winning record against Vegas and L.A., so that same logic can apply. Essentially, we just don’t want Anaheim winning the division and playing Utah, which would prevent any possibility of being able to play both of them.
Obviously, the above logic is very, very flawed (other than winning the division for home ice), so we probably shouldn’t put too much stake into it. But still, it is something to consider.
Verdict for first-round opponent
It is a toss-up between Utah and Anaheim for me. I think the Oilers match up well against either team. Anaheim has been on a skid to end the season, which would hopefully make them an easier out. However, does the guaranteed home ice advantage for the second round mean Utah is the better play?
I think you have to take the team that is the least experienced and sputtering going into the playoffs, and so the ideal first round is likely the Ducks.
Looking at second-round foes
We don’t need to remake the wheel when it comes to the second-round opponent, since we have already gone through all but one of the possible options thanks to the NHL’s divisional playoff format.
That final option would be the Vegas Golden Knights. The Oilers won three of the four games in this year’s season series against the Knights; however, they won those three by just one goal and then were thumped 5–1 in the final meeting of the season, so maybe that 3–1 record isn’t quite as good as it looks.
Heading into the playoffs, Vegas has been the fourth-best team in the league with a 5–0–1 record in April (and having gone 6–0–1 since hiring John Tortorella as their head coach). That definitely doesn’t bode well, as meeting them in the second round means they keep the wagon rolling through round one.
In terms of the “dangerous” criterion I made up, the Golden Knights have 11 players still from their 2023 Stanley Cup win (along with Brandon Saad, who won two cups in Chicago), so they have that experience to draw upon. Not to mention that the Knights likely have the strongest star power among the four possible teams the Oilers can play, with Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Mitch Marner, Tomas Hertl, and Shea Theodore as bona fide stars (not to mention Ivan Barbashev, Pavel Dorofeyev, Noah Hanifin, and Rasmus Andersson).
So yeah, Vegas being an option doesn’t change anything, as they are likely the worst opponent to get.
That means that if we decided that Anaheim was the ideal first-round opponent, then Utah is the ideal second-round opponent.
If it were Utah, the Oilers would still maintain home ice advantage, given that Utah is the lower-seeded team due to the wild card crossover. So really, in any scenario, Utah could be considered the ideal second-round opponent for that exact reason.
Who could the Oilers face in the third round?
In all likelihood, the team coming out of the Central will be one of Colorado, Dallas, or Minnesota. None of those are great options for the Oilers, considering that they only won one game against any of those teams (once against Colorado). Minnesota was the only team the Oilers didn’t even manage to get a point out of this year, though, so they are arguably the least ideal team to make it through for the Oilers.
However, Colorado is the best team in the league and did beat the Oilers four years ago in the Conference Final, so that history isn’t great. Minnesota, meanwhile, has not made it past the first round since 2014–15, so at least the Oilers would have the playoff experience and success advantage.
The Oilers have beaten Dallas two years in a row in the Conference Final, which raises the same questions as with L.A.: is this the year that Dallas would then overcome their Oilers demons, or would it be groundhog day once more? The fact that the Oilers no longer have Stuart Skinner goes in Dallas’ favour, as he had their number the last two seasons.
In reality, the best opponent for the third round will be whoever is in that second wild card spot, meaning either L.A, or Anaheim. Since we already have the Oilers going through Anaheim in this exercise, that leaves L.A. as the team to pick.
The concerns about LA. outlined above still come into play here, but one has to wonder how meeting in the third round would affect things over playing in the first? After all, the Kings would have had to slog through two of the best teams in the league to get there. This would take a toll and perhaps make it even easier for the Oilers to dispel them for a fifth year. On the other hand, the story of finally beating the Oilers would have an even better premise, given that doing so would take them to the Stanley Cup Final rather than just the second round.
Regardless, the Kings would be the pick here over any of the big Central three.
Stanley Cup Final opponent
With the Florida Panthers not making the playoffs this year, you could argue that both the least and most ideal opponents are gone. After all, having lost to them two years in a row, you know they have your number. On the other hand, maybe the third time is the charm after all? Don’t ask the Kings about that, though.
Regardless of who they play, the Oilers would be the road team (that’s right, they have fewer points than any playoff team in the East), so that isn’t a consideration here.
Starting from the top, aside from being very good teams, the Oilers did not beat either Buffalo or Tampa this season, so let’s scratch them out. Tampa is also a very experienced team who have won two Stanley Cups, so they would definitely be a difficult opponent. With respect to Buffalo, the fact that they could win the Cup in their first year back in the playoffs over the Oilers would just be too much to handle.
The Oilers went 1–1 against all of Carolina, Montreal, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Boston this season and were also outscored in the season by two against all of them. That’s kind of spooky, to be honest, and just feels like a bad omen that I can not/will not elaborate on.
When it comes to Carolina, there is a chance to avenge 2006, but that also means there is a chance to re-experience that. Seems risky. Plus, a team with seven 20-goal scorers doesn’t seem like one you want to mess with.
Montreal has been a wagon this season and has seven players above 0.5 ppg. While they only have four 20-goal scorers, they have 11 players with double-digit goals (plus another three who were on pace for double-digit goals with the team). That is some well-balanced scoring that is huge late in the playoffs.
With respect to Pittsburgh, it is yet another dangerous narrative. You have Sidney Crosby with potentially his best chance to win one last cup (think the Last Dance), along with the Stuart Skinner revenge arc to win a cup against the team that gave up on him after he was their goalie for two straight finals. Outside of the narratives, though, the Penguins are also a dangerously deep team. They have 12 double-digit goal scorers and a solid top-four defencemen in Erik Karlsson, Kris Letang, Ryan Shea, and Samuel Girard.
Philadelphia could be an alright matchup for the Oilers. They don’t really have a true bona fide superstar, nor a star/solid goalie, which would give the Oilers a leg up. The Oilers also did pretty well the last time they faced a Rick Tocchet-led team, too.
Boston may be a wild card team, but I am not so sure they would be a team I would want to face. Jeremy Swayman seems to have found his game again, and they have David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy as their leaders up front. I would still pick them over all the above teams other than Philly, but I wouldn’t love it.
The last team in the East is Ottawa, and they certainly seem like they should be the choice. The Oilers won both their games against them this year, and are 5–1 against them the last three seasons (plus there was the 9–0 record against them in the pandemic Canadian Division season, which maybe isn’t quite as apt anymore, but still). Ottawa does have some star power, though, with Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, and Jake Sanderson, along with some very good players in Drake Batherson, Dylan Cozens, Shane Pinto, Claude Giroux, Thomas Chabot, and Jordan Spence. While Linus Ullmark hasn’t had a great season, he is still a former Vezina Trophy winner who has shown in the past that he has game.
So, all things considered, I guess Philly would in fact be the choice, but I wouldn’t hate playing Ottawa either (although potentially losing to yet another Tkachuk would be the hockey equivalent of the seventh level of hell).
The ideal path for the Edmonton Oilers
Based on the above, the best path for the Oilers to finally win the Stanley Cup in the McDavid era is to face the Anaheim Ducks in round 1, the Utah Mammoth in round 2, the Los Angeles Kings in round 3, and then finishing off the Philadelphia Flyers in the Final.
The likelihood of that happening is slim to none. It is very possible that the Oilers draw Anaheim in round 1, and certainly it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that the Mammoth beat Vegas, but L.A. beating two of Colorado and Dallas?
Perhaps Philly can beat Pittsburgh in round 1, but if they face Carolina in round 2, I wouldn’t give them good odds. Sure, maybe Ottawa upsets Carolina, which would give the Flyers a better chance, but then they have to face a team that put up over 100 points regardless.
But this is the ideal route, not the most likely, so let us dream about that for now. Until Thursday night, when the inevitable Oilers-Kings first-round matchup is confirmed yet again, solidifying it’s place as the third certainty in life behind death and taxes.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
