The Stanley Cup Final may have just ended, but the Edmonton Oilers, both players and management, have to put the disappointment of the loss out of mind quickly and focus on the upcoming offseason, given the small window of just one week before Free Agency Frenzy begins on July 1.
The Oilers have 12 roster players who are set to be free agents on July 1: two restricted free agents and 10 unrestricted. There are also a few players on the farm team who are due new contracts as well, but we will focus on the NHLers.
The Oilers will not be able to keep all 12, given the minuscule amount of cap space available to them (just over $10M), although a Jack Campbell buyout will add a little more breathing room.
So what are these free agents potentially looking at for their new contracts, and will they price themselves out of being able to return to the Oilers for the 2024–25 season?
RFAs
Philip Broberg
Philip Broberg went from potential bust candidate to almost solidified top four defenceman these playoffs. That is certainly welcome news for the Oilers, but how much does that playoff performance bump up a potential contract?
RFA contracts are always difficult to predict, as the length of time plays a big role in the AAV. Generally, a longer contract will result in a higher cap hit, as the team is buying up more (expected) prime and possibly UFA years.
Broberg is a 23-year-old defenceman with 81 NHL games under his belt, producing two goals and 13 points. He also has 20 playoff games on his resume, scoring two goals and one assist (all during his 10 games in this year’s playoffs).
When it comes to defencemen, despite the key to their position being defence, points still are the biggest determinant of salary.
While Broberg’s NHL numbers aren’t very impressive, his AHL work suggests offensive capabilities, with 38 points in just 49 games last year.
One comparison for Broberg is recently acquired Calgary Flame Kevin Bahl. At the time of his ELC expiring last year, Bahl had three goals and 14 points in 66 NHL games over three seasons. Bahl didn’t have the scoring at the AHL level, however, and is certainly more of a defensive dman. Bahl also had one assist in 11 playoff games.
While Bahl averaged more icetime in the regular season of his contract year (14:01 vs 11:37), Broberg had over two minutes more in the post season (15:47 to 13:30).
Bahl signed a two-year contract at $1.025M per year, or 1.26% of the cap. Putting that same percentage to this year’s increased cap of $88M gives us an amount of $1.11M per year.
That seems fairly reasonable and in the ballpark of what Broberg will likely get on a short term bridge deal.
But what if the Oilers want to try to avoid the mistake of a bridge deal for a promising young defender like they did with Darnell Nurse and Evan Bouchard?
Broberg could point to Mikey Anderson’s recent eight-year, $33M ($4.125M AAV) deal with Los Angeles as a comparator. Of course, Anderson was coming off his own one year bridge deal and had arbitration rights, and had just scored 20 points in 77 games that year, averaging over 21 minutes per game for the third year in a row.
Two other players who signed longer term contracts after their ELC were Mario Ferraro (four years, $3.25M per year) and Nicolas Hague (three years, $2.294150M per year—yes, that is the correct number, no I don’t know why it is so specific). Alex Vlasic just signed a six-year, $4.6M per year deal last summer. But those players all had more NHL games and more NHL points at that point than Broberg.
Frankly, it makes sense we don’t have any comparables for a long term contract for Broberg, as generally speaking those contracts come to players with some more miles under them.
Couple that with the Oilers cap situation, and I think we are looking at yet another bridge deal.
Prediction: two years, $1.25M per year
Dylan Holloway
Dylan Holloway is another player who stepped up in the playoffs and looks to have solidified himself in a top nine, if not top six, role next year. But like Broberg, his numbers aren’t that eye popping to warrant a substantial contract: nine goals, 18 points in 89 NHL games. However, he did score five goals and seven points in 25 playoff games this year, which is not too shabby, and he was also nearly a point per game player in the AHL the past two seasons.
Those low point totals for a forward suggest a small contract, although like Broberg, you have to wonder if the Oilers don’t try to get a longer term deal, say three years, given the potential of Holloway shown in the playoffs. If you are Holloway though, you are likely to want a one-year deal to hopefully cash in on a full season on Leon Draisaitl’s wing.
Maybe the Oilers try pointing to the recent three year, $775k deal Kyle MacLean just signed with the New York Islanders after scoring nine points in 32 games, although Holloway is three years younger. Rasmus Kupari is another potential comparator, who signed a two-year deal at $1M per year after scoring 28 points in 123 games over two seasons. Paul Cotter signed a three-year, $775k per year contract after scoring 18 points in 55 games, which was less than his entry level contract.
Just two years ago, Holloway’s teammate Ryan McLeod got a one-year, $798k contract after putting up nine goals and 21 points in 71 games.
So the bigger question is whether the Oilers lean on Holloway on the basis of lack of production and his lack of arbitration rights to force a small contract. I suspect it will play out similar to McLeod’s.
Prediction: one year, $800k
UFAs
Connor Brown
A few months ago, most Oilers fans would have said they would let Connor Brown walk or, at best, take him back at a minimum league contract.
That was before the playoffs, where Brown scored half as many goals and points as he did in the regular season in almost a quarter of the games, and also was part of an absolutely amazing penalty kill.
So what does that make him worth?
Prior to this season, Brown had a couple 20-goal seasons under his belt, although his stats had started to fall the last few years, culminating in a season ending injury after just four games in Washington the year before signing in Edmonton.
Still, that was enough to warrant a total of a $4M contract, which included a $3.225M bonus, which is what drew the ire of many an Oilers fan.
But you have to think after seeing his play in the playoffs, a team would be willing to pay for Brown on the basis that perhaps it was the recovery and getting back up to speed from the injury that was the cause of those problems.
It’s the previous history of scoring that makes Brown a bit of a trickier case than, say, a Teddy Blueger, who just signed a two-year deal with Vancouver at $1.8M per year.
It wouldn’t be shocking to see a team come knocking with a one- or two-year deal north of $3M for Brown, although it would have to be a team that is more middling with a fair amount of cap room.
Brown did say in his exit interview that he wants to be in Edmonton, so perhaps he does take a hometown discount to stay with the club.
Prediction: two year, $1.5M per year deal with the Oilers, or one year, $3M in free agency with another team
Warren Foegele
Warren Foegele had the best year of his career, scoring 20 goals and 41 points. He was also scratched multiple times in the playoffs though, which means his time with the Oilers is likely done. The Oilers likely wouldn’t even offer him the $2.75M per year he is making on his current contract, and given his season Foegele is going to be looking to get paid.
Dakota Joshua just signed a four-year deal worth $3.25M per year with Vancouver, and he’s played 250 less games than Foegele and scored 18 goals and 32 points this year, albeit in just 63 games, which paces out to Foegele’s stats.
While Pierre Engvall may be a good comparison to Foegele, I doubt anyone is giving him a seven-year deal.
It seems that the going rate the last little while for a tween middle sixer is around $3M+, and I would expect that number to stay the same, if not increase a little bit more with the cap increase.
It will really depend on if a team believes Foegele can be a solid, consistent 20-goal scorer, or if this year was just an aberration.
Given the cap increase and the general silly season that is free agency, I think some team will take that risk.
Prediction: three years, $3.5M per year with another team
Mattias Janmark
Mattias Janmark, like Brown, was a big reason why the Oilers penalty kill was so successful these playoffs, and frankly could be argued as the Oilers MVP in the Final.
Janmark has signed two one-year deals with the Oilers previously, first for $1.25M then $1M last year. Both those seemed like fairly friendly deals for a player that was consistently a 25 point player (seriously, three of his last five seasons he has gotten exactly 25 points).
After his playoffs, Janmark could potentially fetch a decent contract on the free agency market. But like Brown, Janmark seems to be partial to Edmonton, and so perhaps he takes another team friendly deal in hopes of winning a cup.
Blueger could be used as a comparable for Janmark as well, even with Janmark’s subpar regular season. Oskar Sundqvist also signed a two-year, $1.5M per year deal earlier this year.
Maybe Janmark and Brown stick together as a package deal, and take similar contracts?
Prediction: two year, $1.5M per year deal with Edmonton, or two year, $2.5M per year deal with another team in free agency
Adam Henrique
The Oilers big splash at the trade deadline was 34-year-old Adam Henrique. He ended up playing multiple different roles with the Oilers, including winger for both Draisaitl and McDavid, before settling in on the third line with Janmark and Brown.
If the Oilers could keep that line, that would be huge for getting back to the Final next year.
Henrique is coming off a five-year deal that paid him $5.85M per year. There is absolutely no way the Oilers could afford that.
Would Henrique get that on the open market? Well, he scored 24 goals and 51 points this year, along with four goals and seven points in 17 games in the playoffs. He has been fairly consistent, however he has been injury prone, including in the second round of the playoffs this year.
If Henrique were even two years younger, getting $5M would be a real possibility, but it is less clear now. But a guy who has paced 50 points or higher for five of the past seven seasons is a valuable commodity regardless. Plus his clutchness in the playoffs in terms of scoring goals in Stanley Cup Final elimination games is something else.
But would Henrique also take a friendly deal to stay with the Oilers? He also mentioned money not being his number one priority at this stage of his career.
Prediction: one year, $3M deal with the Oilers, or three year, $4.5M per year deal with another team (or perhaps Utah or San Jose goes crazy with their cap space and offers $5M)
Vincent Desharnais
Vincent Desharnais is a curious case. At the end of the regular season, he was apparently in talks with the Oilers on an extension, and most Oilers fans were ecstatic to hear that. Fast forward and Desharnais ended up playing just one game in the Stanley Cup Final, with Broberg taking his spot.
While only having two years in the NHL, Desharnais is 28 years old. That means he likely needs to try to cash in on a contract now, and with Broberg’s emergence you have to imagine the Oilers are not going to be among the highest bidders. While he mentioned he wants to remain in Edmonton, it seems more and more unlikely, barring either of Brett Kulak or Cody Ceci being traded.
Would Desharnais potentially get a deal similar to Nick Seeler, who signed a three-year deal for $2.7M per year? Seeler has 180 more games than Desharnais, mind you, but they average around the same amount of ice time, and Desharnais is two years younger.
Or does Desharnais’ lack of offense hold him back?
I still think NHL GMs value a tough defensive defenceman, and someone would be willing to throw a bigger number at him than the Oilers can afford.
Prediction: two years, $2.1M per year from another team
Corey Perry
After having his one-year, $4M contract terminated by Chicago, the Oilers signed Corey Perry to a one-year deal worth $1.1M (which prorated to a cap hit of $775k).
Perry scored eight goals and 13 points in 38 games for the Oilers, but had just two goals and three points in 19 playoff games.
Perry is 39-years-old, and so there is a question of whether or not he will retire.
Even assuming he doesn’t, I don’t see the Oilers taking him back, if only because he is clearly cursed to lose in the Stanley Cup Final every single year.
If he were to stay in the league, I am not sure he would get more than a million dollars, and it will certainly be on just a one-year deal.
Prediction: one year, $1M with another team
What’s the next move?
In the above, I have the Oilers potentially retaining Broberg, Holloway, Brown, Janmark, Henrique and Pickard for a total cap hit of $9.05M. That would be quite a good result for the Oilers in theory, but that leaves just under $1M for a seventh defenceman, a 12th, and 13th forward (aka impossible). Mind you, a buyout of Campbell gets the Oilers another $3.9M, in which case $4.9M is more than enough, likely leaving at least $2M. If the Oilers could do that, one would think you keep that open to accrue for the trade deadline.
That is also probably a pipe dream, but again perhaps the Oilers sweeten some of those deals (especially Henrique, Janmark and Brown) with that extra $2M, which may be enough to keep them. If not, the Oilers should be able to find adequate replacements at those prices, but it is certainly more of a risk.
All in all, acting GM Jeff Jackson has some work to do for sure.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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